Assessing Zip Co (ASX:ZIP) Valuation After Macquarie Conference Trading Update

Simply Wall St.05-08

AdvertisementWhy Zip Co (ASX:ZIP) is back in focus after the Macquarie conference Zip Co (ASX:ZIP) is back on traders’ radars after a fresh trading update tied to CEO Cynthia Scott’s appearance at the...

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The latest trading update and conference appearance come after a sharp 58.1% 1 month share price return and a 4.8% gain in the last day, set against a weaker year to date share price return of a 21.2% decline and a very large 3 year total shareholder return that highlights how much sentiment around Zip Co has swung over time. If you are looking beyond Zip Co and want to see what else is moving in payments and fintech, this is a good moment to scan for other growth stories through the Simply Wall St screener for 4 top founder-led companies With Zip Co’s share price climbing 58.1% in a month, but still showing a weaker year-to-date return and an analyst price target above the last close, the real question is whether there is still a buying opportunity or if the market is already pricing in future growth. Most Popular Narrative: 4% Overvalued At a last close of A$2.64 versus a narrative fair value of A$2.55, the current Zip Co price sits slightly above what one prominent community valuation suggests, and that sets the context for how some investors are thinking about the recent share price run.  You have to view BNPL companies as Short term lenders + Payment companies, so your metrics for valuations would look more into Tranaction margin & Net Credit Loss Rate to loan book value, similarly to other lenders / banks. These metrics listed above help you closely compare to Zip Co's competitors.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what sits behind that A$2.55 figure, according to Kallan? The narrative leans on revenue expansion, improving profitability and a future earnings multiple that assumes Zip Co can keep punching above its current scale. Result: Fair Value of A$2.55 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this depends on assumptions that could be challenged if credit losses rise or if US expansion increases debt and funding costs more than expected. Find out about the key risks to this Zip Co narrative. Next Steps With sentiment clearly split between risks and rewards, this is a good time to look through the data yourself, decide where you stand, and then weigh up the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop at Zip Co, you could miss other stocks that better match your goals, so put a few minutes into scanning the wider opportunity set.  Target resilient performers by checking companies highlighted in the 6 resilient stocks with low risk scores that score well on overall risk profiles. Hunt for potential bargains by reviewing the 11 high quality undervalued stocks that combine quality fundamentals with pricing that may not fully reflect them. Build a watchlist of potential future standouts by screening through the screener containing 14 high quality undiscovered gems that many investors may not be watching yet.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Zip Co might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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