Is GEO Group (GEO) Pricing Fair After Recent Share Price Rebound?

Simply Wall St.05-08

If you are trying to figure out whether GEO Group is attractively priced or looking stretched, the recent share performance raises some timely valuation questions. The stock closed at US$21.22, with ...

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The stock closed at US$21.22, with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/commercial-services/nyse-geo/geo-group/news/is-geo-group-geo-pricing-fair-after-recent-share-price-rebou\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is GEO Group (GEO) Pricing Fair After Recent Share Price Rebound?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs GEO Group (GEO) Pricing Fair After Recent Share Price Rebound?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-08 22:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/commercial-services/nyse-geo/geo-group/news/is-geo-group-geo-pricing-fair-after-recent-share-price-rebou><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are trying to figure out whether GEO Group is attractively priced or looking stretched, the recent share performance raises some timely valuation questions. The stock closed at US$21.22, with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/commercial-services/nyse-geo/geo-group/news/is-geo-group-geo-pricing-fair-after-recent-share-price-rebou\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4588","symbol_name":"碎股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/commercial-services/nyse-geo/geo-group/news/is-geo-group-geo-pricing-fair-after-recent-share-price-rebou","article_id":"2633450572","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/9551737-choice1-main-header/1585186739215"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/commercial-services/nyse-geo/geo-group/news/is-geo-group-geo-pricing-fair-after-recent-share-price-rebou","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2633450572","pubTimestamp":1778251410,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are trying to figure out whether GEO Group is attractively priced or looking stretched, the recent share performance raises some timely valuation questions.\nThe stock closed at US$21.22, with returns of 14.6% over 7 days, 20.6% over 30 days, 33.2% year to date and a 19.3% decline over the last year, while the 3 year and 5 year returns stand at 139.0% and 244.5% respectively.\nRecent coverage around GEO Group has focused on how its share price path and sector role feed into debates...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4084":"特种房地产投资信托","BK4165":"安全和报警服务","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","GEO":"GEO惩教集团"},"translate_title":"近期股价反弹后，GEO集团（GEO）的定价公平吗？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"GEO":1.5},"content_text":"If you are trying to figure out whether GEO Group is attractively priced or looking stretched, the recent share performance raises some timely valuation questions. The stock closed at US$21.22, with returns of 14.6% over 7 days, 20.6% over 30 days, 33.2% year to date and a 19.3% decline over the last year, while the 3 year and 5 year returns stand at 139.0% and 244.5% respectively. Recent coverage around GEO Group has focused on how its share price path and sector role feed into debates about risk and opportunity, as investors reassess where it fits in a portfolio. This backdrop helps frame whether the current level reflects a reasonable assessment of its prospects or a mispricing that could matter to you. On Simply Wall St's valuation checks, GEO Group holds a 4/6 value score. The rest of this article breaks down what that means using several valuation approaches and also points to a broader way to think about value that is covered at the end.  Find out why GEO Group's -19.3% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: GEO Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today using a required rate of return. It is essentially asking what all of GEO Group's future cash flows are worth in today's dollars. For GEO Group, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of $48.9 million, so the valuation leans heavily on projected improvements in cash generation. Analysts provide estimates out to 2027, with Simply Wall St extrapolating further to build a 10 year path. Within those projections, free cash flow for 2027 is $225.1 million, and the 2035 projection is $111.4 million, all in $. When these projected cash flows are discounted back, the DCF model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $18.44 per share. Against a recent share price of $21.22, that implies GEO Group is around 15.1% above this model's estimate of intrinsic value based on this method alone. Result: ABOVE INTRINSIC VALUE (DCF MODEL) Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests GEO Group may be overvalued by 15.1%. Discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. GEO Discounted Cash Flow as at May 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for GEO Group. Approach 2: GEO Group Price vs Earnings For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful yardstick because it ties the share price directly to the earnings that support it. The level of an appropriate P/E usually reflects what the market is willing to pay for each dollar of earnings, given expectations for growth and the risk investors see in those earnings. GEO Group currently trades on a P/E of 10.31x. That sits below both the Commercial Services industry average P/E of 20.65x and the broader peer group average of 26.34x. On those simple comparisons, the stock is priced at a lower multiple of earnings than many of its listed peers. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for GEO Group is 11.95x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E could be, based on factors such as earnings growth characteristics, profit margins, the company’s industry, market cap and specific risks. Because it adjusts for these elements, the Fair Ratio can give a more tailored view than a plain comparison with industry or peer averages. With the current P/E of 10.31x sitting below the Fair Ratio of 11.95x, the stock screens as undervalued on this metric. Result: UNDERVALUED NYSE:GEO P/E Ratio as at May 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 19 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your GEO Group Narrative Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you attach a clear story to the numbers by linking your view on GEO Group's future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a Fair Value estimate and a simple comparison with the current share price. All of this is available within the Community page where millions of investors share views. These views then update automatically when new news or earnings arrive. You can see, for example, how one bullish GEO Group Narrative might target Fair Value of US$33.00 based on higher revenue growth and a 16.2x future P/E, while a more cautious Narrative might anchor Fair Value closer to US$27.00 using a 22.0x future P/E and slower growth. This can help you decide how comfortable you are with the gap between price and your own Fair Value before choosing when to act. Do you think there's more to the story for GEO Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NYSE:GEO 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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