The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1135 ET - Next week's WASDE report from the USDA is expected to show some early indications of how the nascent crop year has started. While the information is important to traders and analysts, price upside for grains may be limited because fund traders are already piled into long positions, according to CFTC data. "Amid funds that are sitting in a record-long grain position, rallies will be difficult to sustain," says AgResource in a note. Fund traders are holding a long position in corn of over 264,000 contracts, as well as a long position of over 185,000 contracts in soybeans and a combined net long of nearly 69,000 contracts in wheat, according to CFTC data. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1034 ET - This afternoon's Crop Progress report from the USDA is expected to show a big bump in the amount of corn and soybeans planted, according to analysts. That's in part because of how much progress farmers are believed to have made over the weekend. "The planters were rolling hard over the weekend and will be going hard again this week," says AgMarket.net in a note. The firm forecasts the report will show corn planting around 40% complete, with soybeans around 35% done. CBOT grain futures are mixed, with most-active corn down 0.5%, soybeans up 0.9%, and wheat off 0.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1010 ET - Most-active live cattle futures trading on the CME are down 0.3%, with analysts speculating that the contract may have found its highest point near-term. "Friday's close was underwhelming, as contracts reached new highs before reversing and ending with a full bearish reversal," says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. "This technical price movement signals a possible short-term peak in the market, the market will need to hold the April lows which is now key support." Cattle futures hit an all-time high of $2.55 a pound last week, according to data from FactSet. Lean hog futures are up 0.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1005 ET - Oil futures are off overnight highs as the market weighs a U.S. plan to guide stranded ships with no links to the conflict out of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump calls the project a humanitarian gesture as many vessels run low on food "and everything else necessary for largescale crews to stay on board in a healthy and sanitary manner." While the cease-fire is holding, the closure of the strait remains the main force behind the high oil prices, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. "As another meeting between the U.S. and Iran has proven elusive, the complex has been forced to price in an extended closure of the strait at least through the rest of this month and possibly through June." WTI is up 0.3% at $102.24 a barrel and Brent rises 2.2% to $110.54.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0955 ET - The dollar strengthens against the yen, but it is likely to be rangebound as the Fed leans hawkish while traders keep a close watch on the Bank of Japan. "The US-Japan interest rate differential still provides support for the dollar, but the risk of intervention from Japan has created a clear psychological ceiling around the 160 level," XS.com's Linh Tran writes. The USDJPY peaked at 160.39 last week, before retreating to 156 amid a suspected intervention that remains officially unconfirmed. It is now at 157. Tran recommends avoiding "chasing the pair higher during strong rebounds and instead focus on monitoring price reactions within the current range." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0933 ET - CBOT corn is down 0.4%, soybeans up 0.6%, and wheat is losing 0.7%, following Friday's Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC showing an uptick in fund long positions in wheat and corn. Over 50,000 long contracts were added in corn for the week ended April 28. That brings the net long held by fund traders to over 264,000 contracts. Soybean longs were reduced by over 10,000 contracts. "The CFTC report showed greater than expected buying in the corn, which increases the chance of a correction that would align with seasonal weakness that is often seen as the crop goes in," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0618 ET - Palm oil closed higher, tracking gains in the crude oil and soybean oil market, according to David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Prices are supported by expectations of another month of lower stocks, Ng says. He sees prices of palm oil supported above 4,550 ringgit a ton and faces resistance at 4,680 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for July delivery rose 50 ringgit to 4,620 ringgit a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0359 ET - The aluminium market is expected to face significant supply shortages for the remainder of the year even if U.S.-Iran hostilities end, analysts at BMI say. The market is expected to remain tight due to a slow recovery in Gulf smelting capacity, particularly in the U.A.E., Bahrain and Qatar, where operations have been disrupted or damaged. This adds to existing global supply constraints, including China's production cap. "Aluminium exports from the Middle East are unlikely to immediately return to normal levels even if the Strait of Hormuz is re-opened, leaving the global aluminium market exposed to a meaningful supply deficit in 2026," the analysts say. BMI forecasts prices at around $3,500 a metric ton in the near term, with risks skewed to the upside. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0323 ET - Brent crude could surge toward $200 a barrel if the U.S. and Iran fail to reach a deal and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed through 2027, analysts at ANZ say. In such a scenario, global oil supply would fall by around 15 million-20 million barrels a day and most of the International Energy Agency's coordinated stockpile releases would already be exhausted. Meanwhile, demand destruction would intensify and damage to key infrastructure in the Persian Gulf would further delay recovery, ANZ says. This would keep prices elevated well above $100 a barrel for most of 2027, according to the firm. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0310 ET - Triputra Agro Persada's 2026-2028 earnings outlook seems brighter, CGS International analysts say in a research report. The brokerage expects the palm oil producer's fresh-fruit-bunch yield to improve to 24.3 tons per hectare in 2026-2028 from 22.4 tons per hectare projected previously. Drivers are young palm estates age of around 14.6 years as of March 2026, disciplined agronomy, and favorable estate exposure, the analysts say. Also, management reaffirms its 2026 FFB production growth guidance of 5%-10%. The brokerage raises the stock's target price to 2,400 rupiah from 1,840 rupiah.00 to reflect higher Indonesia crude-palm-oil average selling price and FFB production forecasts, while maintaining its add rating. Shares are 1.9% lower at 2,060 rupiah. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0251 ET - Gold prices fall in thin trading, as elevated oil prices and uncertainty over the future of U.S.-Iran peace talks clouds the outlook for monetary policy. "High energy prices continue to raise the chances of interest rates remaining high for the foreseeable future," analysts at ANZ Research say. New York futures are down 1% to $4,597.70 a troy ounce. Markets in China, Japan and the U.K. are closed Monday for public holidays, damping liquidity. Meanwhile, silver futures are down 1.4% to $75.33 an ounce and platinum falls 0.5% to $2,002.50 an ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
2252 ET - Palm oil prices were lower in Asian trading, due to expectations for ample supply and lower demand in the current month, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. However, Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects crude palm oil prices to stay above 4,500 ringgit a ton, driven by elevated energy prices and possible supply disruptions linked to El Nino. AmInvestment Bank pegs resistance at 4,607 ringgit a ton and support at 4,545 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for July delivery is 10 ringgit lower at 4,560 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 04, 2026 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)
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