Indian rupee at record low as analysts dust off 2013 RBI playbook

Subhadip Sircar / Bloomberg05-05

The Indian rupee fell to a record low as crude prices rose following a flare-up in violence in the Middle East, leading analysts to consider whether the central bank may return to its 2013 playbook.(...

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Brent traded near US$113 a barrel after surging 5.8% on Monday as traders tracked tensions in the Middle East after fresh clashes between the US and Iran.\nThe currency has come back under pressure as the Reserve Bank of India’s recent crackdown on speculative bets delivered only brief relief. The Middle East conflict has kept energy prices elevated, while foreign investors have already pulled US$21 billion from local equities this year — surpassing 2025’s full-year outflow. Those trends are straining the country’s external finances.\n“The underlying issue for INR remains the balance of payments,” UBS Group AG economists including Tanvee Gupta Jain wrote in a note. “Measures to increase capital flows need to be the key policy priority.” The Swiss bank lowered its fiscal 2027-end rupee forecast to 96 per dollar from 94.\n\nTo address these pressures, the RBI has scope to deploy its 2013 policy toolkit — drawing on measures used when the taper tantrum hit — to support the rupee, according to the analysts. Those steps included raising dollars from expatriate Indians, curbing gold imports and opening a special forex swap window for oil-marketing firms, who account for US$250 million to US$300 million in daily demand. \nAt the time, the authority supplied about US$12 billion to refiners as the rupee slid past 60 per dollar — then a record low.\nThe central bank has so far relied on dollar sales to defend the currency. India’s forex reserves stand at about US$700 billion, though a negative US$103 billion forward book — reflecting future dollar obligations — limits the central bank’s flexibility. \nWhile the Iran war shock poses challenges for India, a large oil importer, some of those headwinds should be offset by capital flows from the numerous free trade agreements that the country has recently signed, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday. The country’s net capital account position should be better than last year, he said at an event in Amsterdam.\nUploaded by Arion Yeow","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.2","shortVersion":"4.42.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2633940369","isCrawlerRequest":true}