The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1018 ET - The calm in the foreign exchange market possibly reflects bets that rising U.S. inflation could increase pressure on President Trump to end the Iran war as November's midterm elections approach, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. This would help explain why the euro-dollar exchange rate remains near levels seen before the Iran war started, he says. Data Thursday showed U.S. inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year in April as energy prices jumped due to the Middle East conflict, above the 3.7% expected by economists in a WSJ survey. The euro falls 0.3% to $1.1744, little changed from levels before the data. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1016 ET - The negotiating power held by buyers may be past its peak, according to Redfin. There were an estimated 46.5% more home sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market in April, down from 47.5% the month before. When sellers outnumber buyers, buyers typically hold more negotiating power because they have options. High housing costs and economic uncertainty have caused many house hunters to retreat, creating the current imbalance of buyers and sellers, according to Redfin. Homebuyer demand has been dwindling for months, but ticked up in April thanks to a strengthening job market and declining recession risk, Redfin says. If the number of buyers continues to grow, more homeowners may see it as an opportunity to list their homes. There were an estimated 1 million homebuyers in the market in April and an estimated 1.5 million sellers in the market, Redfin says. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
1012 ET - Investors raise their bets of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months as high oil prices raise inflation risk. The Middle East conflict has led to high energy prices and increased the possibility of central banks raising rates to prevent inflation from surging. "Markets clearly perceive the U.K. has a bigger inflation problem and that tighter monetary policy will be needed to limit second-round effects from the energy shock," Oxford Economics' Andrew Goodwin says in a note. Investors price in a 53% probability of the BOE increasing interest rates by a quarter point in June, up from a 31% chance priced in last week, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1011 ET - The median U.S. home sale price rose 2.4% year over year, Redfin says. That's the biggest increase since March 2025. April's jobs report showed stronger-than-expected hiring, reducing recession risk. This likely helped fuel a pop in housing demand. Pending home sales rose 2% from the month before. New listings climbed 2.7% month over month to the highest level since July 2022. The typical home that went under contract in April did so in 49 days, one day faster than a month earlier. But homes still take longer to sell than they did a year ago, and sales and listings remain below pre-pandemic levels. Roughly three of every five homes that sold in April went for less than their original list price. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
0953 ET - Bitcoin's resilience in staying above the $80,000 mark despite a hotter-than-expected CPI report, is a sign of further price upside ahead, says Matt Mena of 21shares. "The fact that BTC has not broken down on this print is arguably more telling than the number itself--the market was positioned for hot, absorbed it, and is still sitting above the $80k support level," says Mena. "With these macro headwinds out the way, we can finally see Bitcoin retest the $82k resistance level and push to $85k." Mena adds that voting on the CLARITY Act in the Senate could also be a catalyst for an impending price surge, which could go as high as $90,000. BTC is down 1.4% to $80,682. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0939 ET - The hit to German business sentiment from the Iran war may have bottomed out based on the results of the monthly ZEW investor sentiment indicator, Oxford Economics economist Mateusz Urban says in a note. The headline index rose to minus 10.2 in May, from a multiyear low of minus 17.2 in April. The pickup is broadly in line with modest improvements in other surveys, as hopes rise of an end to Middle East hostilities relatively soon, with an ensuing normalization in energy prices, Urban says. "As such, it signals that the hit to sentiment has likely bottomed out, but we need firmer hard data evidence to say the same about real activity," he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0938 ET - It's too early to call for an "altcoin season," says Coinbase Research in a note. "Altcoin season" is typically seen when there is a strong rotation of capital out of mainstays like bitcoin and stablecoins into riskier alternatives--in hopes of capturing larger speculative gains. Many L1 tokens--tokens that trade using their own base blockchain instead of the blockchains of other larger coins--have seen strong gains recently, but not enough to declare a trend, says Coinbase. "Altcoin open-interest dominance has fallen to the lowest level in years… meaning altcoin leverage has not rebuilt alongside the stabilization in token valuations," says the firm. "This is therefore a majors & bitcoin-led market with improving institutional demand, not yet an 'alt season'." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0934 ET - Major cryptocurrencies are under pressure this morning, pulling back from recent gains that many L1 blockchains saw late last week and this past weekend. However, bitcoin remains above the $80,000 threshold, and is in fact trading at $80,864. In addition to the increased demand for BTC coming from ETFs, bitcoin is also seeing more "conviction buyers"--wallets that accumulate BTC and "HODL" in lieu of actively trading it. Citing data from BitGo Research, analysts with Bitfinex say that these buyers are purchasing the most bitcoin they have since the Covid-19 pandemic. "Prior peaks in this metric have historically preceded major price recoveries, as reduced sell-side pressure from long-term holders tightens available supply," says Bitfinex. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0924 ET - Sterling's more contained response to U.K. political uncertainty compared to U.K. government bonds isn't surprising, strategists at Unicredit's The Investment Institute say in a note. The political crisis concerns public finances and rising borrowing costs which tend to impact the gilt market first, they say. "Sterling is also benefiting from the indirect support offered by a less-buoyant dollar." Investors remain optimistic that the Middle East conflict will ease, driving safe-haven flows away from the dollar, they say. Sterling earlier reached a near two-week low of $1.3499 while 30-year gilts reached their highest since 1998 at 5.813%, LSEG data show. The moves come as Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces increasing pressure to step down. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0920 ET - The second consecutive CPI reading above 3% strengthens the case for a Fed hike, Regan Capital's Skyler Weinand writes. Consumer prices rose 3.8% from a year ago through April, topping forecasts of 3.7%. Meanwhile, other indicators point to a resilient economy. "The inflation and employment data as of late suggests that the Federal Reserve's next move should be a rate hike, and not a rate cut," Weinand says. But it won't be easy for the Fed. Given "the pressure facing incoming Chair Warsh, we think a rate hike is unlikely," he says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0909 ET - Price increases moderated in categories of goods sensitive to tariffs, bolstering the case that effects from President Trump's levies are fading. Goods prices excluding food and energy were flat in April. Household-furnishings prices declined 0.5%, falling for a second straight month. Apparel prices cooled, rising by 0.6% after climbing by 1.3% in February and 1% in March. Appliance prices fell by 0.4%, dropping further after a 1.6% March decline. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
0904 ET - Gold prices fall but remain above $4,700 a troy ounce after the latest U.S. data showed inflation soared in April, driven by higher gasoline prices. U.S. consumer prices rose 3.8% last month, surpassing the previous month's reported increase of 3.3% and expectations of a 3.7% rise. In afternoon European trading, New York futures are down 0.4% to $4,710.70 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index--which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies--is up 0.3% to 98.24. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 12, 2026 10:18 ET (14:18 GMT)
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