By Doug Busch
After facing pressure from the summer of 2021 through the end of 2025, Moderna shares have staged an impressive comeback, rallying roughly 50% from their recent lows as investors return their focus to the biotech sector.
The sharp move higher has been fueled by improving momentum, renewed optimism around the company's mRNA pipeline and a powerful technical breakout that helped shift sentiment back in favor of the stock.
I looked at this name late last December and last week it showed a 20% gain, demonstrating very strong relative strength against the State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF, which gained 3.3%. On its weekly chart it looks like it is carving out a long cup with handle pattern that started in May 2024. A decisive break above the $60 level could really accelerate the stock's advance.
The rally also received support following reports of a U.S. national testing positive for Hantavirus, as the company disclosed it is exploring an "early-stage and ongoing" treatment program targeting the disease.
With those catalysts, let's examine the technical setup on the daily and monthly charts.
Looking at the daily chart shows that since last December it has displayed solid action against biotech peers on the ratio chart against the XBI.
Admire last week's bullish MACD crossover below the zero line, which suggests improving momentum and potential long term positive trend reversals. Notice that at the start of 2026 a bullish golden cross was recorded as the secular 200-day simple moving average started to slope higher for the first time since the summer of 2024. Around that time it also broke above a double bottom with a handle pivot of $36.
The best breakouts tend to work immediately and offer additional buy points on the way up. That is exactly what it is doing as it looks to break above a $56.30 double bottom trigger. Enter here and look for the stock to travel toward $74 by the second half, a 30% gain from current prices. Remain bullish above $52.
Moderna was trading around $53 Monday.
Looking at the monthly chart one can see this has lagged against the overall biotech space since July 2021 on the ratio chart against the XBI. Notice it traded sideways between last April-December after ending an ugly nine-of-10-month losing streak with a doji and spinning top candle in April-May 2025. It could be forming the right side of a double bottom base that began at the very round $500 mark, featuring a bearish shooting star and doji candle in August and September 2021. It recently retested the cup base breakout above a $29.79 pivot, which was originally taken out in March 2020.
Following a robust rally, Moderna appears to be regaining leadership within the biotech space. Improving technical momentum and renewed confidence in its pipeline may set the stage for further upside ahead.
Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 11, 2026 14:00 ET (18:00 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments