Speculative-Grade Corporate Defaults Could Worsen Amid Middle East Impact, S&P Says

MT Newswires Live05-12

Speculative-grade corporate defaults in Asia-Pacific could rise over the next year amid the impact of the Middle Eastern conflict, S&P Global Ratings said in a recent release.

The region's trailing 12-month speculative-grade corporate default rate could soar to 2.25% by March next year from 0.7% in December 2025.

The rise in defaults will keep energy prices above pre-war figures for a significant period, S&P analyst Nick Kraemer said.

S&P's forecast for the default rate ranges from zero under its optimistic scenario to 5% under a pessimistic case.

The optimistic scenario considers S&P's base case for the conflict and little to zero direct impact from the stoppage of energy and materials flows.

Meanwhile, the pessimistic scenario entails lingering disruption to energy and shipping flows and stronger credit stress, S&P said.

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