The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0314 GMT - Thailand's growth in 2026 is likely to soften due to spillover effects from the war in the Middle East, but may be partly offset by resilient goods exports amid global artificial intelligence demand, DBS Group Research analysts say in a report. Higher costs and uncertainty are likely to weigh on Thailand's consumption, investment and tourism. Rising airfares are set to disrupt travel demand from the Middle East and Europe, which account for about 27% of Thailand's visitor arrivals. DBS forecasts 2026 growth for Thailand at 1.6%, down from 2025's 2.4% expansion. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0253 GMT - The Philippine central bank could deliver a 50 bps rate hike in June, as the country is facing growing stagflation risks, OCBC economists say in a report. First-quarter growth slowed to 2.8% on year, compared with 4Q's 3.0% expansion. With headline CPI surging to over a three-year high in April, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said it is ready to take necessary action to bring inflation back to target. The latest inflation print also suggests that BSP's tone will remain hawkish and focused on price pressures in the near term, OCBC says.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0243 GMT - The Singapore dollar weakens against its U.S. counterpart in the Asian session amid ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions that reduce appetite for risky assets. The cease-fire between the two countries has remained fragile, analysts say. President Trump rejected Iran's response to the U.S. peace proposal as "totally unacceptable" and said the cease-fire was on "life support," OCBC Group Research's Christopher Wong notes. Meanwhile, "Iran continues to push for an end to hostilities, sanctions relief and guarantees around [Strait of] Hormuz before making major concessions," the FX strategist says in a research report. The U.S. dollar is 0.2% higher at 1.2705 Singapore dollars, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0217 GMT - China's AI industry is entering a new phase that's more defined by capturing value and less by catching up in capabilities, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. The narrative has shifted to inference, application and real earnings, they add. China is optimizing for speed, cost efficiency and system-level integration. MS estimates China's semiconductor self-sufficiency rate, which stands at 41% last year, to continue to improve to 86% by 2030. AI will also become a medium-term productivity lever and lift China's total factor productivity growth by around 3 percentage points over the next decade. This is likely to bring GDP growth rate 3.5 percentage points higher in 2035 than without AI adoption, they say. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0213 GMT - Asian currencies mostly weaken against the dollar in the morning session, amidst high Middle East tensions that undermine appetite for risky assets. NAB Senior FX Strategist Rodrigo Catril says in commentary that President Trump's rejection of Iran's latest proposal as a "piece of garbage" and describing the cease-fire as on "massive life support" has kept Middle East risks elevated. Trump's blunt dismissal of the Iran proposal has renewed doubts over a U.S.-Iran cease-fire, Catril adds. The dollar climbs 0.8% to 1,485.70 Korean won, advances 0.8% to 61.404 Philippine peso, and rises 0.3% to 32.36 Thai baht, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0143 GMT - The Indonesian rupiah likely remains under pressure against the dollar, as lingering energy disruptions raise risks of fuel shortages in Indonesia, MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan says in a research report. "Indonesia's vulnerability is heightened by relatively low crude inventory buffers, largely due to storage capacity constraints," the senior currency analyst says. However, Indonesia has obtained Russian oil supply of up to 150 million barrels, which should help to strengthen the Asian country's energy supply buffer, Chan says. Also, Bank Indonesia has stayed proactive in stabilizing the rupiah, the analyst adds. The dollar closed 0.3% higher at 17,405 rupiah on Monday, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0139 GMT - Malaysia's currency is likely to see near-term volatility against the dollar, but fundamentals should support its appreciation over the next 12 months, MUFG analyst Lloyd Chan says in a note. Malaysia's status as an oil producer and net gas exporter provides a natural hedge against higher energy costs, helping its terms of trade outperform regional peers such as Thailand and the Philippines, he notes. Ringgit volatility has remained contained despite Middle East tensions, he says. Chan expects Malaysia's strong macro fundamentals, such as an expected 4.8% GDP growth for 2026, contained inflation and the likelihood of Bank Negara Malaysia holding rates at 2.75% to support the ringgit. Strong electronics exports and stable foreign bond holdings are also expected to support the currency, he adds. The dollar rises 0.2% to 3.9295 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0131 GMT - The dollar's momentum against the yen is "curling" higher, based on technical analysis, StoneX's Matt Simpson says in commentary. The dollar-yen pair posted a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on Monday, which could prompt dollar bulls to drive the greenback back toward the 158 yen range, the senior market analyst notes. However, the monthly pivot point at 157.62 yen and the swing low at 157.54 yen "could provide a resistance zone for bears to fade into," Simpson says. The dollar is 0.2% higher at 157.54 yen, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0058 GMT - An equity raising is only one option available to Air New Zealand as measures to reduce its debt burden become necessary, says Jarden. It expects Air New Zealand's net debt-to-Ebitda to be 5x at the end of FY 2026. That is "well above Air New Zealand's target range of 1.5x-2.5x, which suggests some capital management response is required," analyst Grant Lowe says. Alternatives to an equity raising include the deferral or cancellation of planned aeronautical capex, says Jarden, noting Air New Zealand's plans here totaled NZ$3.4 billion at 1H. It could also pursue a sale-and-leaseback arrangement of unencumbered aircraft, which represented NZ$2.3 billion at 1H. "While the latter option would assist with liquidity, we note it would increase the future lease liability," Jarden says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
0025 GMT - JGBs fall in morning Tokyo session, tracking overnight price declines in U.S. Treasurys. Both JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. Japan's Finance Ministry is scheduled to auction about 2.6 trillion yen of 10-year sovereign securities on Tuesday. "We expect demand from pension funds via rebalancing demand due to rising stock prices," Citi Research's Tomohisa Fujiki says in a research report. However, due to FX interventions, the "yen has richened somewhat, which will reduce demand for yen bonds on the margin," the rates strategist adds. The 10-year JGB yield rises 2 basis points to 2.540%, the highest intraday level since June 1997, according to data provider Quick. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0011 GMT - Japanese stocks are higher in early trade as enthusiasm over artificial intelligence-related themes continues. Chip and metals stocks are leading the gains. Renesas Electronics is up 6.8%, and Sumitomo Metal Mining is 7.3% higher. The dollar is at 157.27 yen, compared with Y157.05 as of Monday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching Japanese quarterly earnings, with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Fujifilm Holdings scheduled to release their results later Tuesday. The Iran conflict is also in focus. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 0.6% at 62799.11. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
2346 GMT - The yen consolidates against other G-10 and Asian currencies in morning session. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has said he will meet with Prime Minister Takaichi and Finance Minister Katayama in Tokyo today. "The market is watching the U.S.'s stance closely," analysts of Nomura's FX Research team say in commentary. "A tolerant U.S. stance toward intervention and BOJ tightening could help make JPY strengthening efforts more effective and lasting," the analysts add. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 157.22 yen and the euro is flat at 185.20 yen, while the Australian dollar rises 0.2% to 113.90 yen, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 11, 2026 23:14 ET (03:14 GMT)
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