By Dan Gallagher
In the movie business, competing with Disney isn't for the faint of heart. But for IMAX, it's also the highest form of compliment.
IMAX doesn't make movies itself, but the two companies will be going head-to-head in a way when Disney releases its next Avengers title late this year. The fifth installment of the megapopular subfranchise of Disney's Marvel universe was moved out of a summer launch to Dec. 18. But "Dune: Part Three" from Warner Bros. had already secured that date and -- most important -- the IMAX screens for that release window.
Disney's solution is Infinity Vision, which is a certification program for other premium large-format screens that aren't part of the IMAX system. Disney announced the program at the industry's annual CinemaCon conference last month and intends to have a number of PLF screens certified by fall, in time for the new Avengers movie.
It might seem like a negative for IMAX to be competing directly with one of the biggest entertainment names on the planet. But Disney's move actually illustrates how important premium screenings have become in today's theatrical movie business. And IMAX dominates that part of the market. Disney's own announcement refers to more than 75 domestic PLF screens that could potentially sign on to its Infinity Vision program. IMAX currently has 426 screens operating in its North American circuit.
Premium screenings are playing a particularly important role in a theatrical market that is finally mounting a strong comeback from the multiple disruptions of Covid-era shutdowns and crippling Hollywood strikes. The domestic box office has brought in about $2.9 billion so far this year, which is the highest total for the comparable period since 2019, according to data from Comscore.
Wall Street analysts expect the full year to end up in the range of $9.5 billion to $10 billion. That would still fall below the $11.4 billion averaged in the pre-Covid years of 2015 to 2019. But the business has also right-sized, with the total U.S. screen count down a little over 10% from 2019, according to Comscore data. Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon thinks $10 billion a year is a realistic target for the U.S. box office going forward. "If there are 120 wide release movies a year, which is about where we are now, then $10 billion is achievable," he said in an interview.
IMAX shares took a hit following the company's first-quarter report last month. Revenue fell 6% from a year earlier as the company's China business faced a tough comparison due to last year's megahit "Ne Zha 2." The stock is now down about 4.5% so far this year -- lagging behind the 16% growth for exhibition peer Cinemark.
But the company should benefit strongly this year from a recovering global box office. More moviegoers are opting for a premium experience, and more filmmakers are investing the effort to provide it. Universal's "Oppenheimer" in 2023 was a surprise megahit that grossed just under $1 billion globally and swept the Oscars. Director Christopher Nolan shot much of that film with IMAX cameras and turned the format into a destination event, with moviegoers traveling long distances to IMAX venues outfitted with 70mm projectors.
IMAX picked up about a fifth of that film's total box office during its initial run. That helped propel the company's revenue growth that year to 25% -- outpacing total domestic box office growth that year.
Analysts are expecting 8% growth for IMAX this year, to a new company record of $443 million. That will likely get a big lift from "Odyssey," Nolan's latest film that Universal will release on July 17. The movie was shot entirely on IMAX cameras after the company developed a new setup that allowed the director to use the massive, noisy cameras even for quiet dialogue scenes.
"Dune: Part Three" in December also comes from a director who heavily favors the IMAX format. Another boost could come early next year, as streaming giant Netflix recently decided to give "Narnia: The Magician's Nephew" a full theatrical run in February that will include two days exclusively on IMAX screens.
Even Disney isn't really forgoing IMAX. Avengers aside, the company is still putting its largest summer pictures on IMAX screens. Those include "Toy Story 5," "Moana" and "The Mandalorian and Grogu," which launches on Memorial Day weekend and is the first new Star Wars movie in seven years.
In that light, the Infinity Vision program looks more like an effort by Disney to keep a prime holiday release window and make the best of it. It is still a risky move, even with a marquee Marvel property. The 2023 installment of the Mission Impossible franchise got only a week on IMAX screens before the release of "Oppenheimer" moved it off, and that movie ended up falling well short of its predecessor's box office take.
On the other hand, if the new Avengers movie proves a major draw, that could ultimately sell more moviegoers on the idea that premium screens are worth paying up for. IMAX can win either way.
Write to Dan Gallagher at dan.gallagher@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
More than 75 premium large format brands operating more than 1,000 screens could sign on to Disney's Infinity Vision program. IMAX Has a Front-Row Seat to the Box Office Recovery at 5:30 a.m. ET incorrectly said more than 75 PLF screens could participate. Also clarifies that IMAX remains the most dominant with 426 screens operating in its North American circuit.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 10, 2026 20:24 ET (00:24 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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