MW The 'godfather of crypto' predicts $1 million bitcoin, but it's going to fall first
By Jules Rimmer
Bitcoin could fall to its 200-week moving average at $60,000 - or lower
Bitcoin mines are more sophisticated than in the past, but the halving every four years is a deflationary mechanism, making the cryptocurrency harder to create with fewer rewards. AFP PHOTO / MAXIM ZMEYEV / TO GO WITH AFP STORY BY Maxime POPOV
Bitcoin (BTCUSD) evangelist Michael Terpin, who was once labeled "the godfather of crypto" by CNBC, has both good news and bad news for investors in the most liquid digital currency.
The 'godfather of crypto' maintains his conviction in $1,000,000 bitcoin
The good news is that he has not changed his position on the "progress to a million-dollar bitcoin."
The bad news is he's confident enough to give a two-thirds probability to the scenario that any position he can sell above $80,000 he "can buy back in the [$60,000 range] to perhaps the $50s."
Terpin, a well-known commentator on all things crypto, is the author of the book "Bitcoin Supercycle: How the crypto calendar can make you rich," as well as an early advocate. He's also the founder and CEO of Transform Ventures, a blockchain-investment and advisory firm.
He was explaining his theories about bitcoin's roller-coaster ride to David Lin, host of an eponymous podcast, and co-host Bonnie Chang in an episode aired Monday.
Terpin said that Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious and possibly nonexistent individual widely credited with the invention of bitcoin, deliberately timed bitcoin halvings - a disinflationary mechanism that affects the reward for mining bitcoin - every four years, coinciding with the U.S. midterm elections.
He predicted an October low, estimating that the price may drop to the 200-week moving average around $60,000 but acknowledging the possibility of it overshooting and "landing" somewhere between $48,000 and $55,000.
Terpoin argues that bitcoin will be seeing a bull market as the next presidential electoral cycle approaches in 2028.
Terpin discussed the threat posed by quantum computing, which, in part at least, contributed to the slump in bitcoin between October and February, pointed out it's a very decentralized system, saying, "You're not going to crack every wallet in bitcoin."
Among other threats to the bitcoin investment thesis, Terpin identified systematic selling by firms like Jane Street. Those are trading strategies that seek to manipulate the price and exploit the large percentage of its individual investors. The technique, sometimes referred to as "the 10 a.m. dump," seeks to trigger liquidations and profit from short positions.
Much of Terpin's pricing theories and forecasts seem to rely on anecdotal evidence, or discussions with other "whales" (especially large holders or traders) about trading targets and strategies.
Terpin pointed to Strategy (MSTR) and the company's commitment to buying more bitcoin as providing a price floor. He also dismissed the furor surrounding Saylor's recent admission that he might, contrary to all previous declarations of intent, consider making sales as more of a "necessary inoculation" or "escape valve" to satisfy Wall Street lenders, rather than a genuine intention.
The real thrust of Terpin's argument for bitcoin is familiar. He noted the erosion of trust in the fiat system, the unprecedented money printing and the accumulation of sovereign debt. Despite being a bitcoin bull, he said that the next decade belongs to disruptive AI technology and predicted that the nascent market for "AI tokens" (units of data processed by models during training and inference) will "outperform bitcoin in the next three years."
-Jules Rimmer
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 12, 2026 08:11 ET (12:11 GMT)
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