The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2143 ET - The Indonesian rupiah likely remains under pressure against the dollar, as lingering energy disruptions raise risks of fuel shortages in Indonesia, MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan says in a research report. "Indonesia's vulnerability is heightened by relatively low crude inventory buffers, largely due to storage capacity constraints," the senior currency analyst says. However, Indonesia has obtained Russian oil supply of up to 150 million barrels, which should help to strengthen the Asian country's energy supply buffer, Chan says. Also, Bank Indonesia has stayed proactive in stabilizing the rupiah, the analyst adds. The dollar closed 0.3% higher at 17,405 rupiah on Monday, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2139 ET - Malaysia's currency is likely to see near-term volatility against the dollar, but fundamentals should support its appreciation over the next 12 months, MUFG analyst Lloyd Chan says in a note. Malaysia's status as an oil producer and net gas exporter provides a natural hedge against higher energy costs, helping its terms of trade outperform regional peers such as Thailand and the Philippines, he notes. Ringgit volatility has remained contained despite Middle East tensions, he says. Chan expects Malaysia's strong macro fundamentals, such as an expected 4.8% GDP growth for 2026, contained inflation and the likelihood of Bank Negara Malaysia holding rates at 2.75% to support the ringgit. Strong electronics exports and stable foreign bond holdings are also expected to support the currency, he adds. The dollar rises 0.2% to 3.9295 ringgit. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2131 ET - The dollar's momentum against the yen is "curling" higher, based on technical analysis, StoneX's Matt Simpson says in commentary. The dollar-yen pair posted a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on Monday, which could prompt dollar bulls to drive the greenback back toward the 158 yen range, the senior market analyst notes. However, the monthly pivot point at 157.62 yen and the swing low at 157.54 yen "could provide a resistance zone for bears to fade into," Simpson says. The dollar is 0.2% higher at 157.54 yen, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2058 ET - An equity raising is only one option available to Air New Zealand as measures to reduce its debt burden become necessary, says Jarden. It expects Air New Zealand's net debt-to-Ebitda to be 5x at the end of FY 2026. That is "well above Air New Zealand's target range of 1.5x-2.5x, which suggests some capital management response is required," analyst Grant Lowe says. Alternatives to an equity raising include the deferral or cancellation of planned aeronautical capex, says Jarden, noting Air New Zealand's plans here totaled NZ$3.4 billion at 1H. It could also pursue a sale-and-leaseback arrangement of unencumbered aircraft, which represented NZ$2.3 billion at 1H. "While the latter option would assist with liquidity, we note it would increase the future lease liability," Jarden says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
2025 ET - JGBs fall in morning Tokyo session, tracking overnight price declines in U.S. Treasurys. Both JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. Japan's Finance Ministry is scheduled to auction about 2.6 trillion yen of 10-year sovereign securities on Tuesday. "We expect demand from pension funds via rebalancing demand due to rising stock prices," Citi Research's Tomohisa Fujiki says in a research report. However, due to FX interventions, the "yen has richened somewhat, which will reduce demand for yen bonds on the margin," the rates strategist adds. The 10-year JGB yield rises 2 basis points to 2.540%, the highest intraday level since June 1997, according to data provider Quick. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2011 ET - Japanese stocks are higher in early trade as enthusiasm over artificial intelligence-related themes continues. Chip and metals stocks are leading the gains. Renesas Electronics is up 6.8%, and Sumitomo Metal Mining is 7.3% higher. The dollar is at 157.27 yen, compared with Y157.05 as of Monday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching Japanese quarterly earnings, with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Fujifilm Holdings scheduled to release their results later Tuesday. The Iran conflict is also in focus. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 0.6% at 62799.11. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
1946 ET - The yen consolidates against other G-10 and Asian currencies in morning session. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent has said he will meet with Prime Minister Takaichi and Finance Minister Katayama in Tokyo today. "The market is watching the U.S.'s stance closely," analysts of Nomura's FX Research team say in commentary. "A tolerant U.S. stance toward intervention and BOJ tightening could help make JPY strengthening efforts more effective and lasting," the analysts add. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 157.22 yen and the euro is flat at 185.20 yen, while the Australian dollar rises 0.2% to 113.90 yen, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1944 ET - Japanese stocks may rise as enthusiasm over artificial intelligence-related themes continues. Nikkei futures are up 0.6% at 62885 on the SGX. The dollar is at 157.23 yen, compared with Y157.05 as of Monday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching Japanese corporate earnings, with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Fujifilm Holdings set to announce their results later Tuesday. The conflict in the Middle East is also in focus. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.5% to 62417.88 on Monday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1837 ET - CSL's downgrade to FY 2026 earnings revenue and profit guidance didn't surprise Jefferies much. That's because issues affecting immunoglobulin in the U.S. and albumin in China were already known. "We continue to believe both markets are underpenetrated, so the industry should grow over the medium term," says analyst David Stanton. The focus now is whether CSL can signal to investors what its net profit is likely to be in FY 2027 and FY 2028. "Given medium-term market growth and CSL's cost-out program progression, we are at mid-single-digit constant currency net profit growth for FY 2027 and FY 2028," Jefferies says. It retains a buy call, while lowering its price target by 8% to A$195.00 a share. CSL ended Monday at A$100.75. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1742 ET - Another signal in the latest Canadian jobs report points to sub-1% GDP growth this year and a Bank of Canada firmly on hold, says Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. The data covering April suggest total hours worked fell 0.5% from year-ago levels. Such a decline is associated with annual growth of just over 0.5%, Porter says. Most economists, and the Bank of Canada, project growth of over 1% this year. That's still possible but will require a healthy rise in productivity, he adds. Further, Porter tells clients that over the past three decades, the BOC has not increased its policy rate when hours worked were declining from 12 months prior. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1544 ET - Treasury yields rise ahead of an expected uptick in U.S. inflation and as tensions rise in the Middle East. President Trump refuses Tehran's counterproposal for peace talks and says a ceasefire is under "massive life support." Oil rises 3%, silver rallies 7% and gold is up 0.2%. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.2%. April CPI is due tomorrow. WSJ consensus calls for a monthly slowdown that would still take the 12-month reading to 3.7%, up from 3.3% in March. Inflation is now seen as the Fed's focus and bets on hawkish monetary policy rise. The 10-year yield rises 0.048 percentage point to 4.411%. The two-year is up 0.054 p.p. to 3.946%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1426 ET - Mexico's industrial production likely fell in March from the previous month, confirming a weak performance in the first quarter. Industrial output is expected to have fallen 0.5% from February in seasonally adjusted terms, and seen down 1% unadjusted from the year-earlier month, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. Preliminary GDP data released at the end of April showed 1Q industrial output down 1.1% from 4Q25 and 1.3% lower from a year earlier. Statistics institute Inegi is scheduled to report March industrial production on Tuesday. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 11, 2026 21:43 ET (01:43 GMT)
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