Assessing 4DMedical’s Valuation After New GSK Contract And Rising Interest In Lung Imaging Technologies

Simply Wall St.05-16

4DMedical (ASX:4DX) is back in focus after securing a one year contract with GlaxoSmithKline to supply quantitative lung imaging analytics for pulmonary drug development, while its respiratory imaging...

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See our latest analysis for 4DMedical. The GSK contract has arrived at a time when momentum around the stock is shifting again, with the share price up 8.88% in the last day and 29.91% over the week, but down 34.12% over 30 days, while very large 1 year total shareholder returns contrast with more moderate 3 and 5 year outcomes. If today's move in healthcare imaging has your attention, this could be a good moment to look across the sector and check out 9 healthcare AI stocks With the stock up strongly over the past week but still down 34.12% over 30 days, and trading only about 7% below analyst targets, you have to ask: is there real value left here, or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 62.5% Undervalued According to the most followed narrative, 4DMedical's fair value of A$11.11 sits well above the last close at A$4.17, which frames the recent volatility in a very different light.  4DMedical is the first non-invasive, contrast free imaging technology for the lung scanning. New CT:VQ lung scanner is the first technology of its kind and is rapidly being adopted by clinics and big name KOL's in America. 4DMedical's goals for 2026 is to rapidly scale and expand across major AMC's, building more credibility and reputation among other clinics to help expand their technology. Partnership with Philips promised a $10Million USD minimum order commitment contract over the next 2 years starting December 2025, (over 2026 and 2027) Philips has added 4DMedicals CT:VQ technology as an official product on their catalog in North America.  Read the complete narrative. Want to understand why this narrative, according to ethanwong, points to such a large gap to A$11.11? The story leans heavily on rapid revenue expansion, very high margin software, and ambitious adoption assumptions across major American medical centres and scanners. The full narrative sets out how those ingredients combine into that fair value. Result: Fair Value of A$11.11 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this narrative still relies heavily on ambitious adoption timelines and assumes that current loss making operations and future capital needs remain manageable for existing shareholders. Find out about the key risks to this 4DMedical narrative. Next Steps With a strong split between risks and rewards in the story so far, it makes sense to move quickly and test the numbers for yourself using our breakdown of 1 key reward and 5 important warning signs. Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop with just one stock, you miss a lot of potential. Use the Simply Wall St screener tools to widen your watchlist and spot fresh opportunities.  Target potential value opportunities by scanning for companies that appear mispriced relative to their fundamentals using the 9 high quality undervalued stocks. Strengthen your defensive side by filtering for companies with robust finances and low risk scores through the 6 resilient stocks with low risk scores. Get ahead of the crowd by searching for quality businesses that are not yet widely followed using the screener containing 13 high quality undiscovered gems.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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