The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2027 ET - Oil prices inch higher in early Asian trade, ahead of the two-day summit between Washington and Beijing. Prices could remain elevated as there is no sign of an imminent diplomatic settlement to the war in the Middle East, XS.com's Samer Hasn says in an note. This could possibly intensify the conflict and hurt the region's oil production and export infrastructure, the senior market analyst adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.2% higher at $101.24 a barrel; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.2% higher at $105.87 a barrel.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
1647 ET - Fixed-income traders are misguided in pricing in two quarter-point rate increases from the Bank of Canada, says Michael Davenport of Oxford Economics. Davenport says the BOC might start raising rates in early 2027, once there is more clarity on the U.S.-Canada trade front and on commodity prices. Rate-hike expectations reflect worries about inflation, due to the Mideast conflict that has lifted energy prices. "The BOC knows it can't solve a global energy crisis with higher interest rates," Davenport says. The economist adds Canada faces underlying economic weakness from elevated household debt, weak business investment and lackluster productivity. Labor-market weakness signals excess economic slack, that will keep the BOC on hold through 2026, Davenport says. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1602 ET - A procedural vote required to allow a vote on H.R. 1346, a bill that would allow for E15--gasoline blended with 15% ethanol-- to be sold nationwide year-round has passed, by a slim margin of 213-208 in the House of Representatives. The procedural measure allows for the E15 legislation to be detached from the 2026 Farm Bill and voted on separately. H.R. 1346, the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025, is scheduled to be voted on by the House later today, with last votes expected at 5:30 p.m. ET, according to a daily schedule on House Majority Leader Steve Scalise's website. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1503 ET - Oil futures settle lower in a choppy session with no change seen in the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. The continued closure is pushing the market toward a tipping point, Hamad Hussain of Capital Economics says in a note. "The fact that oil inventories are still being drawn down shows that demand for oil is still outstripping supply," he says. If flows through the strait resume this month it could limit withdrawals and lead prices to fall back by year-end, but if the strait remains closed and stocks decline at the pace seen in April, oil stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June. "That would be consistent with Brent crude prices reaching an all-time nominal peak, and could require more disorderly and economically damaging cuts to oil demand," Hussain adds. WTI settles down 1.1% at $101.02 a barrel and Brent falls 2% to $105.63. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1500 ET - U.S. natural gas futures inch higher ahead of weekly storage data that are expected to leave the surplus against the five-year average little changed. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect an 87 Bcf injection for last week, putting inventories 142 Bcf above the 2021-2025 average, versus the previous week's 139 Bcf surplus. "Two more supportive EIA storage reports are likely before triple-digit injections return in the end of May," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "Seasonal upside is more likely in early summer than during the next 7-10 days leading into the typical physical market weakness of Memorial Day weekend." Nymex natural gas settles up 0.7% at $2.864/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1444 ET - Finning International is showing a strong earnings trajectory that National Bank of Canada analyst Maxim Sytchev says "is getting better and higher." Sytchev upgrades the stock to outperform from sector perform, with a new C$115 target up from C$89, arguing it has become "too painful on the sidelines." He points to a record backlog, broad-based booking strength, and growing equipment populations in Canada and Latin America that solidify the product support tail. Sytchev also cites other reasons to be bullish, including "more friendly CAD resource development," emerging data-center demand in Alberta, and Argentina potentially becoming "a more meaningful contributor vs. current 6% to 7% of the top line over time." (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1401 ET - Finning International is entering a product support cycle that could be lucrative for the heavy-machinery dealer. In a report, Scotiabank's Jonathan Goldman says product support "could surprise to the upside this year" with consensus forecasting 4.6% growth for the segment in 2026, while "management PSU targets are based on +5.1% to +6.6%." Goldman notes that Canada should "pick up the slack from South America," with the Canadian truck population rising from 400 to 500 between 2023-2025 and another 50 to 60 expected to be delivered in 2026. Those trucks are starting to require regular maintenance, meaning Canada's product support growth should exceed oil sands production growth of greater than 2%-4%, Goldman says. Finning International up 7% to C$103.40. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1327 ET - Recent data show the U.S. economy gaining strength despite oil around $100 a barrel and gasoline averaging near $4.50 a gallon, Arlan Suderman of StoneX says in a note. Gasoline prices are in the middle of the historical range when adjusted for inflation reflecting today's buying power, he says. "The two things that consumers notice and complain about first and foremost are rises in food and fuel prices. Yet, in this case, they continue to spend because they have the money to do so." The U.S. consumer still has buying power, and "the economy continues for now to show impressive strength amid the stresses of the Iran war," Suderman says. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1323 ET - Valvoline's stock lost recent gains following a strong F2Q performance, Mizuho says, pointing to reported shortages across the motor oil and lubricant industry. The analysts say multiple social media posts from operators and experts highlight disruptions across the motor oil supply chain due to the Iran war. The analysts expect private operators to increase prices, as Valvoline has already done so. Valvoline holds adequate supply for now and the lower end of its outlook accounts for possible supply shortages, the analysts say. Valvoline is down 2.2%.(katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)
1046 ET - Nebius is tracking ahead of its own expectations for power capacity. The AI infrastructure company says during a call with analysts that it's now targeting at least 4 gigawatts of contracted power this year. Nebius had previously said it was targeting more than 3 gigawatts by the end of the year. Nebius also announces a new site in Pennsylvania to support 1.2 gigawatts of power once fully operational. This is the company's second owned gigawatt-scale site in the U.S., executives say. Nebius surges 16%. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)
1044 ET - Nebius says strong demand for its AI infrastructure products is allowing the company to raise prices. Demand is continuing to exceed available capacity, allowing the company to raise prices in the latest quarter, Chief Revenue Officer Marc Boroditsky tells analysts on a call. Nebius is still selling out across all chip types, even at the higher prices, Boroditsky says. Demand is also resulting in longer contract durations, increasing contract values and more prepayments, he says. These factors are improving Nebius's working capital position and giving it more flexibility around external financing needs, he says. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)
1043 ET - Oil futures haven't risen further despite a deepening supply shock linked to the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though a prolonged blockade could pave the way for sharper gains, says Alex Kuptsikevich from FxPro. "The price of a barrel of Brent at around $105 seems too low," the chief market analyst says. "Moreover, there is now almost no difference between futures and spot prices, whereas at the start of April the spread exceeded $30." Kuptsikevich says the market has so far relied on several buffers, including large global stockpiles--particularly in China--alongside stronger U.S. exports and alternative shipping arrangements by Gulf producers. "Nevertheless, the oil shortage created by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is laying the foundations for future price growth," he says. "Time is on the side of the Brent bulls." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 13, 2026 20:27 ET (00:27 GMT)
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