The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0315 GMT - Iron ore edges lower in early Asian trading. Molten iron output, a strong signal of iron ore's demand, remains steady, according to Nanhua Futures analysts in a commentary. However, further demand upside is limited due to a seasonal slowdown, they note. While port stocks are still falling, the current price level looks stretched, they add. The most traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.1% lower at 816.5 yuan a ton.(tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0237 GMT - Near-term weakness seen in earnings of Malaysia's offshore support vessel sector should be overlooked, Maybank IB analyst Jeremie Yap says. He says investors should instead position for the sector's 2027 capital expenditure upcycle theme. Seasonal monsoon conditions from November to March typically reduce offshore activity, leading to lower vessel utilization in 1Q, he says, adding Keyfield and Perdana Petroleum are expected to be affected. However, a multi-year capital expenditure upcycle by Petronas is expected to begin in 2027, which is likely to benefit key names in the sector. Yap maintains a positive view on the Malaysian oil and gas sector, pegging Keyfield and Perdana Petroleum as its top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0031 GMT - Oil prices fall in early Asian trade, on a possible technical correction after settling higher on Tuesday. There's still room for oil prices to climb if the Iran conflict worsens, says Kudotrade's Konstantinos Chrysikos in a note. The extended shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global flows of crude oil, Chrysikos adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.6% lower at $101.56 per barrel; front-month Brent crude oil futures are down 0.6% at $107.12 a barrel.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
1925 GMT - U.S. natural gas futures pull back from yesterday's gains with the market awaiting greater weather-driven demand that's expected to come with hotter summer weather. "With LNG feedgas running below recent peaks due to spring maintenance and production staying resilient, the path of least resistance has shifted lower again," Gelber & Associates says in a note. In its latest outlook, the EIA lowered its 2026 Henry Hub price estimate to $3.50/mmBtu from $3.67/mmBtu. The EIA predicts above-average storage injections for the April-October refill season that will leave inventories 7% above the five-year average by the end of October. Nymex natural gas settles down 2.3% at $2.843/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1918 GMT - Crude futures extend gains to three sessions as the U.S. remains far from reaching a deal with Iran, which refuses to give up its nuclear program and seeks to extend its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have risen less than could be expected given the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the market, analysts at Morgan Stanley say in a note. Aside from the supply buffers that existed at the outset of the conflict and expectations of a prompt reopening of the strait, U.S. exports have increased and Chinese imports have fallen, they say. But a closure of the strait "for longer than China or the U.S. can sustain current flows could cause renewed tightness." WTI settles up 4.2% at $102.18 a barrel and Brent rises 3.4% to $107.77.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1816 GMT - Demand for new vehicles has declined year-over-year for the seventh consecutive month as gas prices continue to rise, according to a new report from CarGurus. Affordability pressures are shaping the market for car-buying, the report says. The average listing prices of new vehicles rose 1% to cross back over $50,000 in April while overall new car demand fell 8%. The share of lower-priced inventory meanwhile is shrinking, the report says. Demand for used vehicles picked up earlier this year but has since moderated and slipped in April. Interest in electric vehicles and hybrids has picked up in the wake of rising gas prices, the report says. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
1701 GMT - Expect oil prices to be higher for longer, Enverus's research arm suggests. The energy data analytics platform maintains its forecast for Brent crude to average $95 a barrel for the rest of 2026 and $100 for all of 2027. Its outlook is driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which it assumes will last three months and restricts oil flows, as well as low OECD and product stock levels. For each additional month the strait remains closed, it expects $10-$15 a barrel to be added to its price outlook. Structural factors including constrained spare capacity and a muted U.S. supply response support a sustained geopolitical risk premium on oil, Enverus says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1550 GMT - Capital Economics says its call for no rate increases from the Bank of Canada this year is underpinned by a forecast that a barrel of WTI averages $80 over 2H. Canada, a net crude exporters, should experience a slight boost in growth, while inflation will hover above 2.5% in the coming months. Excess economic slack and uncertainty over the future of USMCA should help limit price increases in non-energy goods, and allow BOC to remain on hold. Conversely, CapEcon says WTI above $100 for remainder of 2026 would pose upside risks to core CPI and prompt BOC to raise rates.(paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1516 GMT - U.K. inflation could rise beyond 4% in 2026, with growth a little slower than previously thought, as the Iran war drags on, HSBC's Elizabeth Martins says in a note. Of the scenarios the bank set out in March, the base case is moving from "good" to "bad," which entails crude oil remaining above $100 a barrel until September, she says. "All told, our new forecast profile sees CPI inflation rising to 4.1% in November and staying around that level for four months, before starting to come down from March 2027." That would translate to two quarter-point hikes from the Bank of England this July and September, with those hikes reversed in the second half of 2027 as inflation eases toward the BOE's 2% target, she adds. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1426 GMT - Germany's ZEW sentiment indicator rebounded in May, with investors enjoying the rally in global stocks and hoping a deal between the U.S. and Iran will be struck soon, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen says in a note. The index for Germany rose to minus 10.2 in May, after minus 17.2 in April, better than consensus expectations. "We hope markets are right," Vistesen says. But it could need a bout of volatility and higher oil prices to force President Trump into ceasing military operations in the Middle East, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1418 GMT - The calm in the foreign exchange market possibly reflects bets that rising U.S. inflation could increase pressure on President Trump to end the Iran war as November's midterm elections approach, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. This would help explain why the euro-dollar exchange rate remains near levels seen before the Iran war started, he says. Data Thursday showed U.S. inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year in April as energy prices jumped due to the Middle East conflict, above the 3.7% expected by economists in a WSJ survey. The euro falls 0.3% to $1.1744, little changed from levels before the data. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1412 GMT - Investors raise their bets of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months as high oil prices raise inflation risk. The Middle East conflict has led to high energy prices and increased the possibility of central banks raising rates to prevent inflation from surging. "Markets clearly perceive the U.K. has a bigger inflation problem and that tighter monetary policy will be needed to limit second-round effects from the energy shock," Oxford Economics' Andrew Goodwin says in a note. Investors price in a 53% probability of the BOE increasing interest rates by a quarter point in June, up from a 31% chance priced in last week, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 12, 2026 23:15 ET (03:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments