Moderna is finding itself at a crossroads as investors bet on a “hantavirus trade” to restore the company’s pandemic-era glory, even as it faces shrinking demand for its Covid vaccines and a hostile regulatory environment.
Moderna shares have struggled to return to the heights they reached in 2021, hampered by skepticism over the company’s mRNA technology. Earlier this year, an unexpected Refusal-to-File letter for Moderna’s seasonal flu vaccine presented the drugmaker with a major hurdle. While the issue was resolved, underlying instability remains a concern.
An investment in Moderna is a bet on the biotech’s mRNA platform. Although the scientific consensus is that mRNA is a safe, highly effective platform for vaccines and therapeutics, critics contend that its initial regulatory approval was fast-tracked and warrants further investigation.
Moderna rose to prominence in 2019 when, at the height of the pandemic, the drugmaker delivered the second Covid vaccine approved by U.S. regulators. That product, Spikevax, remains a cornerstone of Moderna’s portfolio. Its sales are now supplemented by mNexspike, a next-generation vaccine designed for the current respiratory virus season.
Before Spikevax became available under an Emergency Use Authorization in December 2020, Moderna’s largest revenue driver wasn’t a product, but collaboration agreements and grants. In fact, before the pandemic, Moderna had zero products on the market and zero commercial sales, surviving instead on its ability to sell the promise of its mRNA platform to larger companies and federal agencies.
The company still was regarded as a unicorn in the world of small, unprofitable biotechs. Until this year, its 2018 initial public offering was the largest in biotech history, raising $604 million and valuing the company at $7.5 billion. That valuation since has ballooned to nearly $21 billion.
But 2020 was a defining proof of concept. CEO Stephane Bancel hailed the year’s progress as “an extraordinary accomplishment for a biotech company of 1,300 people” in a letter to shareholders, declaring that Moderna had finally become a “commercial company.”
Since then, Covid revenue has dwindled, though the latest quarter signaled an unexpected, perhaps fleeting, reversal in the trend. It’s unclear how much longer Spikevax and similar products can keep Moderna afloat.
Enter hantavirus. Just days after its first-quarter earnings report, Moderna was thrust back into the spotlight amid growing concern that an outbreak on a cruise ship in the South Atlantic Ocean could spill over into something bigger.
Since May 4, when the World Health Organization reported a cluster of hantavirus cases onboard the Dutch cruise ship MV Hondius, shares have rallied nearly 14%. The benchmark S&P 500 has added just 2.3% over the same period.
The company remains tight-lipped about its hantavirus effort, though it confirmed last week that it had conducted “preclinical research” with the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases. Despite years of work, there is no word on whether a viable vaccine is any closer to reality, causing the gains to fizzle some.
Both “Hantaan virus” and “Hantaviruses causing Hanta Pulmonary syndrome” are listed as “permitted pathogens” on the website for Moderna’s mRNA Access program, indicating they have been preapproved for collaborative research along with nearly 100 other viruses and bacteria.
Analysts doubt hantavirus will reach Covid-19 proportions or generate significant revenue. For now, Moderna continues to burn through cash as it looks to diversify away from Covid revenue, with a pipeline that includes intismeran autogene, an mRNA vaccine for patients with certain types of cancer.
The company is slated to present fresh data at ASCO 2026, the world’s largest oncology conference. Researchers are evaluating the efficacy of intismeran autogene in conjunction with Merck’s Keytruda as well as on its own as a monotherapy.
It remains unclear if Moderna’s move into oncology will become the growth catalyst Wall Street expects, or how long that shift will take. Analysts don’t expect the company to generate a net profit until 2029. For now, it’s up to investors to determine their own tolerance for risk, especially as questions on the regulatory front continue to cloud the picture.
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has been a vocal critic of mRNA technology for years. During his tenure, Kennedy has taken steps to remove staff who challenge his views, particularly around vaccinations.
Peter Marks, who oversaw vaccine approvals at the Food and Drug Administration, resigned in March 2025 after Kennedy’s transition team issued a “quit or be fired” ultimatum. Months later, Susan Monarez was terminated from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention following clashes over vaccine policy, an ouster that triggered a wave of resignations among her colleagues.
And being a champion of the “Make America Healthy Again” movement only goes so far. Marty Makary’s time was running out on Tuesday afternoon amid growing dissatisfaction over how the FDA commissioner has managed the nation’s drug and vaccine approval process.
Plenty of stock overhangs remain, and the buzz around hantavirus is purely speculative. Still, Moderna’s recent performance shows it is still a “pandemic hedge”—investors turn to the company during outbreaks, hoping for a repeat of its Covid-19 success. Hold the stock.
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