Market Outlook: S&P 500 climbs as investors bet Iran conflict will ease

Bloomberg05-14 23:19

U.S. stocks are continuing their upward momentum after a tech-driven rally pushed the S&P 500 to fresh record highs, with investors increasingly betting geopolitical tensions tied to Iran will not ...

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500 to fresh record highs, with investors increasingly betting geopolitical tensions tied to Iran will not escalate into a prolonged conflict. Ryan Belanger says strong corporate earnings and optimism around artificial intelligence continue to support equities despite inflation and interest rate concerns.BNN Bloomberg spoke with Ryan Belanger, founder and managing principal at Claro Advisors, about why investors should diversify beyond the S&P 500, where opportunities exist outside the U.S., and why rising energy prices and persistent inflation remain key risks for markets.Key TakeawaysMarkets are looking ahead to an eventual resolution of the Iran conflict and are focusing more on earnings growth than near-term geopolitical uncertainty. Investors should diversify beyond the S&P 500, which remains heavily concentrated in large technology companies. Big Tech companies continue generating strong cash flow from AI-related investment, though investors are watching for signs those spending levels may not deliver expected returns. Higher oil prices and persistent inflation are increasing concerns that central banks may pause rate cuts or potentially consider further hikes. International equities, gold and emerging markets are attracting attention as investors look for diversification and value opportunities outside U.S. technology stocks.Ryan Belanger, founder and managing principal at Claro Advisors Ryan Belanger, founder and managing principal at Claro Advisors Read the full transcript below:LINDSAY: An upswing in U.S. stocks looks set to continue after Wednesday’s tech-driven rally led the S&P 500 to a new record. Our next guest says the stock market is pricing in an end to the war in Iran. So let’s get more now from Ryan Belanger, founder and managing principal at Claro Advisors. Good morning. Good to have you join us.RYAN: Good morning.LINDSAY: Should the market be pricing in an end to the war in Iran right now?RYAN: I think so. Markets are very forward-thinking, so they’re well in advance of what’s happening today, tomorrow or even next week. It seems a good train of thought that this is not going to be a war that goes on for years. There’s hope there will be some progress coming out of the summit in China this week.It seems the market has fully priced in what could happen with oil, and it has been a fantastic earnings season. I think a lot of investors are focused on that. You’ve got S&P earnings up almost 20 per cent, and that’s almost twice what the past decade was. So it’s fantastic. These companies are earning so much.From a bear-case perspective, though, that’s typically very rare. We’re not coming out of a recession or anything like that. We are in a late-stage bull market, and we have such an advancement of earnings at this stage. It does coincide, unfortunately, with three or four other times in history where it’s turned out to be the peak of the market. I’m talking about 1973 or March 2000 or even early 2007 — similar earnings characteristics after a long bull market.LINDSAY: Yeah. Let’s talk about that, the S&P 500 making small new all-time highs. What do you think the lesson is for investors here when you watch what the S&P 500 is doing this week?RYAN: Yeah. I mean, it’s critical for investors to be diversified in their portfolios. I think many people don’t fully understand how much technology they truly own. They own the S&P 500, but it’s a considerable overweight to technology. It’s very concentrated.You can’t mistake being diversified for owning the S&P 500 anymore. You’ve got to be in international markets, you’ve got to go down that capitalization structure and own small caps and mid-caps. Small caps have been very out of favour. They’ve rallied recently, but over the last decade they’ve underperformed.We encourage investors to broaden out their diversification and not just think of it as owning the S&P 500.LINDSAY: I want to talk about broadening out and diversifying a little bit. But first of all, when we’re talking about Big Tech, are you optimistic about Big Tech for the rest of this year?RYAN: Yeah, we are. That’s much different than the dot-com boom. These companies are generating huge amounts of free cash flow, and that’s a huge distinction.One caution is that it’s a lot of capital expenditure. They’re spending tons of money trying to buy compute and data centres. Does this materialize eventually? They’ve got to make some money from this.I think that’s what investors would be wise to watch. Are there any signals that this might not go according to plan? There are going to be new winners. Each month you’ve seen the rise of Anthropic versus OpenAI. Who could have predicted that even six months to a year ago?Broadly speaking, though, we still like technology.LINDSAY: Is there a worry that what we’ve been seeing over the last couple of months with the conflict in Iran and higher energy prices will be reflected in the next quarter?RYAN: Certainly. There’s been a lot of chatter about that on earnings calls. You’ve seen the spike in oil show up in inflation for sure. That’s where a lot of people are focused.Even core inflation, excluding food and energy, was up too. That’s still a big concern. These companies really can’t be focused on or hoping to get rate cuts. It seems that door is closing quite fast, and now you’ve almost got to wonder whether we’re exposed to a rate hike.That’s the world you really don’t want to get into. It reminds me of the 1970s, where they couldn’t fully get the inflation firestorm out, and then they had a decade of lost earnings for investors. I certainly hope we’re not signing up for that.LINDSAY: Nvidia is what we’re watching for next week, reporting earnings. What are you watching for, or what are your expectations coming out of that report?RYAN: Nvidia has been an interesting stock. It’s kind of been a laggard. If we had talked a week ago, I could have said that with more confidence. Now you’ve seen a big surge recently.The stock has gone up quite a bit, and it’s finally catching up to some of those other names that have really been accelerating quickly. I don’t want to say it was forgotten, but it had to settle out and find its price.Now I think investors are trying to find value in the market, and they’re saying, “Hey, don’t forget about Nvidia.” They still have this massive lead on everybody else, and it doesn’t seem to be going away anytime soon.LINDSAY: Where else do you see opportunities in the markets?RYAN: More internationally. We’ve increased our exposure in some of our model allocations into international equities, gold and emerging markets. We’re trying to find pockets of value in the market more broadly than just looking at domestic opportunities and certainly looking away from just technology.LINDSAY: And when we’re talking about maybe a hedge, what’s your thought on gold as being the hedge?RYAN: We have a gold position in those model portfolios. We think there’s a place for it. I know it doesn’t pay anything — there’s no yield — but it’s been a long-standing hedge against economic downturns and recessions.We feel it’s prudent to own a piece of that. We’re not overexposed to it, but we do have a small position in the model portfolios that we’re quite comfortable with right now.LINDSAY: What about long-term-duration government bonds as a hedge as well, just before I let you go?RYAN: I think that’s where people are probably more exposed than they think. We would not want to see people tied up in super long-term bonds, especially with this new consternation about rate hikes. That would really be a disaster for that trade.I think one area where a lot of people might be exposed is cash. Money markets used to yield quite a bit more than they do now, so people are naturally complacent.They should probably be thinking about extending into fixed income or, if they have the risk appetite, buying equities when there are opportunities and getting out of some of that low-yielding cash.LINDSAY: Okay, we’ll leave it there. Ryan Belanger, founder and managing principal at Claro Advisors. Appreciate your time this morning. Thanks for joining us.---This BNN Bloomberg summary and transcript of the May 14, 2026 interview with Ryan Belanger are published with the assistance of AI. Original research, interview questions and added context was created by BNN Bloomberg journalists. An editor also reviewed this material before it was published to ensure its accuracy and adherence with BNN Bloomberg editorial policies and standards.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.2","shortVersion":"4.42.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2635415237","isCrawlerRequest":true}