By Teresa Rivas
New York pizza may be the gold standard for connoisseurs, but Iowan pizza packs a profit punch.
Casey's General Stores has soared nearly 60% since the start of 2026 -- about the same amount since Barron's recommended the shares in December. The stock has jumped more than 75% since we named Darren Rebelez one of Barron's Best CEOs last June.
Of course, gains of that magnitude mean that investors may be concerned that this is a case of "Buy the rumor, sell the news" ahead of the company's coming fiscal fourth-quarter results, slated for June. Consumers have been under immense pressure as inflation has ramped up in recent months, reaching its highest level in three years in April. Gas prices show no signs of retreating from north of $4.50 a gallon on average in the U.S., crimping household budgets, and though convenience stores benefit from price volatility, consistently high levels are a headwind for the group.
Consensus calls for Casey's earnings per share to climb 26.7% to $333, while a majority of the 19 analysts tracked by FactSet have raised their estimates for the quarter in the past three months.
Nonetheless, even if there is an understandable post-earnings dip, it would be wrong to assume that Casey's run is done.
While investors are focused on fuel, the chain's chicken wings are becoming a capital-light source of traffic. The pilot program is live in more than 500 stores, and shoppers have shown high satisfaction and repeat visits, with minimal investment, notes Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe. That makes it easily scalable and an attractive addition to Casey's successful prepared-foods business.
"Management noted that frequency essentially doubles with wings in made-to-order occasions," he wrote on Wednesday. "Also, management mentioned high-single-digit percentage lifts in whole pie pizza units at wing stores, reinforcing that wings are incremental rather than cannibalistic. Given that pizza carries materially higher margins, even modest, durable attachment drives outsized profit impact."
When times are tough, it's hard to find a better deal to feed a family than a pizza, purchased at a convenient pit stop on the way home from work.
Casey's may still be getting a lift from joining the S&P 500 in April as well. Stephens analyst Melissa Roberts noted last week that Casey's saw an increase in consumer-staples exchange-traded fund ownership that month. She's also argued that investors are rewarding Casey's for its lack of volatility relative to other staple stocks.
The technical setup looks strong too. Casey's price and relative-strength trajectory make it especially attractive, writes Vermillion Research Global Strategist Ross LaDuke, who recommended investors add exposure to the stock on Wednesday.
John Roque, technical strategist at 22V Research, gives Casey's top technical marks on Wednesday, as the stock remains above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages.
Jefferies' Tarlowe thinks the stock, currently trading at $881, should reach $1,000, reflecting some 15% upside. Even if its rally takes a breather, investors shouldn't pass Casey's by.
Write to Teresa Rivas at teresa.rivas@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 14, 2026 15:15 ET (19:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments