The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1544 ET - The U.S. lumber lobby says that President Trump's "highly effective" trade policy has reduced Canada's share of America's forest products market to 19% -- down from a 34% level in 2016. The US Lumber Coalition adds it wants the Trump administration to continue its hardball approach with Canada on lumber in the hopes of reducing the market share further. Canada PM Mark Carney and other officials have said that tariff relief on industrial sectors, like lumber, is crucial before Ottawa agrees to any changes to USMCA. The U.S. imposes a tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, used in the construction of house, of about 35%. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1520 ET - Livestock futures on the CME settle lower, with live cattle futures down 0.7% to $2.476 a pound and lean hog futures finishing down 1.8% to 98.45 cents a pound. The May WASDE report from the USDA showed a lower beef production for 2026, but higher pork production. For both, higher grain futures on the CBOT became a source of pressure, with the entire row crop complex rising -- particularly for wheat, which gained 7.1% on the day. Hog futures have finished lower for four out of the past five trading sessions. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1518 ET - Crude futures extend gains to three sessions as the U.S. remains far from reaching a deal with Iran, which refuses to give up its nuclear program and seeks to extend its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have risen less than could be expected given the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the market, analysts at Morgan Stanley say in a note. Aside from the supply buffers that existed at the outset of the conflict and expectations of a prompt reopening of the strait, U.S. exports have increased and Chinese imports have fallen, they say. But a closure of the strait "for longer than China or the U.S. can sustain current flows could cause renewed tightness." WTI settles up 4.2% at $102.18 a barrel and Brent rises 3.4% to $107.77.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1301 ET - Expect oil prices to be higher for longer, Enverus's research arm suggests. The energy data analytics platform maintains its forecast for Brent crude to average $95 a barrel for the rest of 2026 and $100 for all of 2027. Its outlook is driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which it assumes will last three months and restricts oil flows, as well as low OECD and product stock levels. For each additional month the strait remains closed, it expects $10-$15 a barrel to be added to its price outlook. Structural factors including constrained spare capacity and a muted U.S. supply response support a sustained geopolitical risk premium on oil, Enverus says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1239 ET - The USDA reduced its outlook for U.S. winter wheat by roughly 350 million bushels from the prior year, which is the main reason that the USDA marked down its overall wheat figure in the May WASDE report. At over $6.78 a bushel, wheat is trading at its highest level since May 2024. The contract is up by 7% currently, while corn rises 0.8% and soybeans are up 1.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1235 ET - USDA lowers its outlook for U.S. wheat production in 2026 to 1.56 billion bushels from 1.99 billion bushels last year, in the monthly WASDE report. It's a bigger cut than expected by analysts surveyed by WSJ, who had anticipated production to come in around 1.73 billion bushels. USDA also cuts its outlook for world wheat production to 275.04 million metric tons for the 2026/27 marketing year, which is lower than the 281.2 million tons expected by analysts. "The wheat got the quinella, everything coming up roses," says Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note following the WASDE's release. "The corn got the face push." CBOT wheat is up 6.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1150 ET - Capital Economics says its call for no rate increases from the Bank of Canada this year is underpinned by a forecast that a barrel of WTI averages $80 over 2H. Canada, a net crude exporters, should experience a slight boost in growth, while inflation will hover above 2.5% in the coming months. Excess economic slack and uncertainty over the future of USMCA should help limit price increases in non-energy goods, and allow BOC to remain on hold. Conversely, CapEcon says WTI above $100 for remainder of 2026 would pose upside risks to core CPI and prompt BOC to raise rates.(paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1057 ET - GEA's robust first-quarter intake is likely the result of pre-ordering, Baader Europe says. Management at the German machinery and engineering company have said the conflict in Iran should have a limited impact, but Baader's Louis Billon expects a slowdown over the remainder of the year if the conflict continues. "Despite the strong 1Q order intake, this does not change our view that the midterm guidance remains too optimistic, and FY26 guidance also appears quite optimistic," he says in a research note. GEA shares trade 0.4% higher at 56.60 euros. (sarah.sloat@wsj.com)
1052 ET - Today's WASDE report may not contain much in the way of fireworks for grain futures, says Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group in a note--particularly for corn. Prices for corn are seen at a fair level to reflect the anticipated size of the incoming crop, says Flynn, referencing research from AgResource. "Data today is unlikely built overly bullish or bearish," says Flynn. CBOT corn futures are up 0.7%, while soybeans rise 0.6% and wheat climbs 2.8%. The WASDE report is due out at noon eastern time. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0959 ET - U.S. natural gas futures return some of the yesterday's gains with near-term weather-driven demand still weak. The downturn in supply from the end of the heating season is unsurprising given low shoulder-season demand and scheduled pipeline maintenance, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Supply constraints often last into early-to-mid June, he says. While a rally is probable at some point over the next 30-45 days, a rising storage surplus and returning production "presents headwinds for Nymex gas futures into mid-to-late summer." Natural gas is down 2.6% at $2.834/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0954 ET - Yesterday's uptick in CME lean hog futures may have been an aberration, says Joe Davis of Futures International in a note. "Lean hog futures rebounded on short covering, but the broader technical structure remains bearish," he says. "June hog futures remain in a downtrend, with the CME lean hog index and projected cash index both moving lower." Most-active lean hog futures are down 0.3% in early trade. Live cattle is up 1.1%, seeming to shake off the news of the Trump Administration temporarily lowering tariffs on beef imports. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0947 ET - Oil futures are rising for a third session as the lack of agreement between the U.S. and Iran and President Trump's warning about the precarious cease-fire raise concerns about renewed escalation in the Middle East conflict. "No news now likely means further escalations are coming," BOK Financial's Dennis Kissler says in a note. But with Trump heading to China to meet leader Xi Jinping, no real escalation is expected until he returns, Kissler adds. WTI is up 3.9% at $101.93 a barrel and Brent rises 3.7% to $108.11. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 12, 2026 16:15 ET (20:15 GMT)
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