By Anita Hamilton and Adam Clark
Oil prices settled mostly flat Thursday, but people's thinking about when the Strait of Hormuz will open is starting to change.
"There seems to be an emerging consensus that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in June because the cost of continued closure will be too high," RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft wrote in a Thursday note.
That group think may be misguided, however, because it's "predicated on the tenuous assumption that there is relatively easy policy lever that can be pulled to get ships moving again through the Strait once the economic pain becomes unbearable," she added.
Brent crude futures, the international standard, settled mostly flat at $105.72 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 0.2% to $101.17 a barrel.
President Donald Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping met Thursday in Beijing. They agreed that the strait must remain open, while Xi said China opposes any toll for use of the crucial waterway and expressed an interest in purchasing more American oil, according to the White House pool reporter.
"Any hints that China could play a more active role in pressuring Iran toward a peace deal would likely be well received," ING analyst Francesco Pesole wrote in a research note.
The developments have been mixed so far. On the plus side, maritime data firm Windward captured images of a midsize tanker loading on Iran's Kharg Island, the first one to do so since May 7.
But the bad news is twofold. First a vessel was reportedly taken by "unauthorized personnel" off the coast of the United Arab Emirates and headed toward Iranian territorial waters.
Secondly, an Indian-flagged livestock carrier "experienced an explosion and later sank" in the vicinity of Limah, Oman, near the mouth of the strait. It's unclear who launched the attack. Both reports were from the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, with India's foreign ministry confirming the second one.
Traffic remains largely suspended in the crucial Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of the world's oil normally transits. The average number of oil and gas tankers passing through the waterway in May so far is 2.6 a day, compared with 3.0 in April and the February average of nearly 50, according to UBS.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said oil prices and energy inflation will come down quickly and that producers will "pump like crazy" in a CNBC interview Thursday.
Write to Anita Hamilton at anita.hamilton@barrons.com and Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com
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May 14, 2026 16:20 ET (20:20 GMT)
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