Fed Survey Highlights Central Bank's Dual Mandate Tension

Dow Jones05-14 03:48

By Jessica Coacci

Even before the conflict in Iran began price increases and concerns about job security remained top of mind for Americans, according to a survey released by the Federal Reserve.

The Fed's Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households 2025 report, published Wednesday, found more than 9 in 10 adults said price increases were a minor or major concern, unchanged from the prior year. The survey, which collected data in October of last year, came before the spike in oil prices, and inflation readings that have reached levels the economy has not seen in three years.

The survey helps illustrate why American's rumination on prices may the salience of the Fed's path of getting inflation back to target. As the war in Iran continues, Fed officials are tasked with not only keeping prices in check, but making sure people's perception of inflation remains well-anchored. Inflation expectations matter for policymakers because expectations themselves can be self-fulfilling.

In addition, 73% of adults who reported "doing okay financially" or "living comfortably" held steady in 2025. However, certain demographic groups, including low-income, young, and Black adults, reported declines in financial well-being.

In the labor market, the survey found Americans were more concerned about finding or keeping a job compared with the prior year, a likely indicator of the "low-hire, low-fire" dynamic that was prevalent in the labor market last year .

"There was a small increase in layoffs, slightly fewer voluntary quits, and fewer people changing jobs than in 2024," according to the survey. Additionally, more adults under age 30 said that not being able to find a job kept them from working than in the prior year.

While the job market has become relatively more stable this year, and since survey data was collected, the labor market may still be a tricky path for the Fed to navigate this year with regard to its rate setting path. Economists have cautioned that positive and negative swings in payroll numbers might be more likely as the economy needs fewer job gains to keep the unemployment rate stable, making it harder to interpret payroll numbers.

The Fed's survey also showed early signs of the affect of artificial intelligence on jobs and the economy. One in four workers said that they used generative AI at work in the prior month. Even as AI displacement has worried job seekers, the survey said users of generative AI were more likely to see potential benefits of the technology for their careers than to worry it will replace their jobs.

Write to Jessica Coacci at jessica.coacci@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 13, 2026 15:48 ET (19:48 GMT)

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