The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1142 ET - Aluminum prices are likely to remain well supported through the second quarter, although scope for further gains appears limited as much of the geopolitical risk premium has already been priced in, analysts at Sucden Financial say. Disruptions in the Middle East, including damage to smelter operations and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have significantly tightened physical balances. If supply disruptions persist, the aluminum market could slip into deficit by the end of the year, leaving prices highly sensitive to additional shocks, according to the firm. Still, the market's recent rally already reflects much of the geopolitical uncertainty, which should cap upside momentum in the near term. Sucden expects aluminum prices to trade within a range of $3,450-$3,650 a metric ton. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1103 ET - The NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is assessing an 82% chance for El Niño to emerge this month or in June. NOAA says that there's now a 96% chance that El Niño will continue through the next winter and into next year. Meteorologists are projecting this year's climate pattern to be a "Super El Niño"-- potentially bringing more wet weather to the Corn Belt over the summer than a normal El Niño might. This may bolster what's already seen as a strong production year for both corn and soybeans. CBOT grain futures are lower, with corn down 2.5%, soybeans down 2.7%, and wheat down 3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1054 ET - The U.S. saw a near-normal net injection into U.S. natural gas storage facilities last week, leaving the inventory surplus over the five-year average practically unchanged at 140 Bcf, the EIA reports. Natural gas inventories increased by 85 billion cubic feet to 2,290 Bcf for the week ended May 8, compared with an 84 Bcf average build for the week over the 2021-2025 period. The increase was slightly below the 87 Bcf estimate in a WSJ survey of analysts. Nymex natural gas futures are little changed in the wake of the report, trading down 0.3% at $2.855/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1011 ET - Live cattle futures are up 0.8% in early trading. Reports indicated that China had renewed import licenses for U.S. beef exports, but Chinese customs have apparently halted clearances for hundreds of U.S. beef plants. The renewal of the licenses was one of the issues President Trump was expected to push for in his summit with China's President Xi. "Confusion reigns," says the Hightower Report in a note. Lean hog futures are down 0.7%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1010 ET - With a lack of concrete developments out of the U.S.-China summit concerning agriculture, CBOT grain futures are lower as traders lock in profits from gains seen after Tuesday's WASDE report. "Profit-taking following this week's rally, improving weather forecasts for portions of the Corn Belt, and broader commodity-market caution also pressured prices," says Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull Trading in a note. While more rainfall is expected in U.S. growing areas, today's U.S. Drought Monitor map shows worsening drought conditions in both Nebraska and Oklahoma, affecting winter wheat crops and newly-planted corn and soybeans. CBOT corn falls 2%, soybeans slide 2.4%, and wheat drops 1.8%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0939 ET - The U.S. House passes legislation allowing for year-round sales of E15, moving the bill on to the Senate for a vote. Agricultural groups celebrated the political victory, but traders appear unsure if the bill can pass in the upper chamber. "Even though E15 passed in the House, traders do not feel it will pass in the Senate," says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. Corn is down 1.7% pre-market, while soybeans fall 2.5% and wheat is down 1.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0931 ET - CBOT grain futures are sharply lower, with traders disappointed in the lack of agricultural-specific news out of the first day of the U.S.-China summit. Soybeans are leading the way down, amid indications that no new Chinese purchases are incoming. "Soybeans declined sharply this morning amid heavy overall grain trade volume, thanks to an early announcement from the Trump-Xi summit that declared Chinese soy purchases 'all taken care of'," says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. Soybeans are down 2.5%, while corn falls 1.7% and wheat is off 1.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0926 ET - The Brazilian real pares down Wednesday's losses triggered by reports that right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro sought financial contributions from a disgraced banker at the center of a major banking fraud. Markets worry the scandal may curb Bolsonaro's chances of beating incumbent leftist Lula da Silva in October's presidential election. The BRL is up 10% against the dollar this year. But politics isn't the main driver, Goldman Sachs analysts write. The appreciation is linked to Brazil's terms of trade and U.S. equity performance, "with a more limited role for our proxy for Brazil-specific risk," Goldman says. USDBRL slips 0.5%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0904 ET - Oil futures are lower with the market focused on the summit between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping. The White House says the leaders agreed the Strait of Hormuz must remain open and that Xi opposed the militarization of the strait or the charge of a toll to use it. "Additional Chinese cooperation beyond these comments is unlikely," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. "The price pullback of the past couple of days has simply represented a brief technical adjustment." WTI is off0.5% at $100.50 a barrel, and Brent is down 0.7% at $104.89. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0840 ET - U.S. natural gas futures trade sideways with the market watching for the EIA's weekly storage report due at 10:30 a.m. ET. Natural gas is trapped between support at $2.82 and resistance at $2.88, "but look for a break out of the range if storage surprises later this morning," Gary Cunningham of Tradition Energy says in a note. "A storage number in the low 80s could give the bulls a reason to push back towards $3, but without some help from the weather maps or a quick return to service from all trains in the LNG fleet we aren't likely to go that high." Analysts in a WSJ survey predict a storage injection of 87 Bcf. Nymex natural gas is off 0.7% at $2.843/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0648 ET - Palm oil ended lower on weaker soybean oil prices and expectation of rising stockpiles, which are likely to weigh on price sentiment, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng sees crude palm oil prices finding support above 4,350 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,500 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for July delivery fell 42 ringgit to 4,396 ringgit a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0356 ET - Recent copper price gains appear to be driven more by supply concerns than by underlying demand, leaving the metal exposed to a potential pullback if Middle East disruptions ease, according to ING. "Supply-side risks linked to the conflict are supporting several industrial metals," analysts at the firm say. However, "higher energy prices and broader macro uncertainty continue to weigh on manufacturing activity and global growth expectations." Investors are likely to keep a close watch on inventory levels, demand signals from China and the degree to which geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt refined metal supply. Three-month futures on the LME are down 0.7% to $13,982 a metric ton after climbing toward record highs in the previous session. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 14, 2026 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)
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