The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1043 ET - Bitcoin is up 0.7%, back over the $80K mark as the market rights the ship following steep selling seen yesterday. According to data from Coinglass, bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows of a combined $630.4 million. It makes it four out of the past five days that ETFs recorded a net outflow, coming after an extended streak of inflows that boosted prices. Yesterday's outflow is among the largest recorded this year, says Konstantinos Chrysikos of Kudotrade in a note. "The cryptocurrency could continue to face increasingly less supportive macro conditions," says Chrysikos. Other major cryptocurrencies are rising, with ethereum up 0.1% to $2,264, XRP up 2.1% to $1.45, solana up 0.2% to $91.36, and cardano up 1.2% to 27 cents. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1004 ET - The dollar is still likely to weaken this year even if the Federal Reserve refrains from cutting interest rates, TD Securities strategists say in a note. With the U.S. and Iran in a stalemate and oil prices remaining high, TD no longer expects the Fed to cut rates in 2026, instead anticipating steady rates. "Nonetheless, we would still maintain a downward forecast path for the dollar in 2026." Even if the Fed pivots to rate rises, it won't raise rates as much as other central banks, they say. Once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the strategists expect the DXY dollar index to fall sustainably below 98.000, from 98.656 currently. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0926 ET - The Brazilian real pares down Wednesday's losses triggered by reports that right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro sought financial contributions from a disgraced banker at the center of a major banking fraud. Markets worry the scandal may curb Bolsonaro's chances of beating incumbent leftist Lula da Silva in October's presidential election. The BRL is up 10% against the dollar this year. But politics isn't the main driver, Goldman Sachs analysts write. The appreciation is linked to Brazil's terms of trade and U.S. equity performance, "with a more limited role for our proxy for Brazil-specific risk," Goldman says. USDBRL slips 0.5%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0922 ET - The dollar rises to two-week high against a basket of currencies after data showed a stronger-than-expected rise in import prices as petroleum prices jumped. Import prices rose 1.9% in April, well above the 0.9% increase forecast by economists in a WSJ survey. Prices for import petroleum and petroleum products surged 19%. It follows higher-than-expected U.S. wholesale inflation data for April on Tuesday, further arguing against the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. The DXY dollar index rises to as high as 98.621 after the data from 98.553 beforehand. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0908 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds stay lower even after the resignation of health minister Wes Streeting. This potentially paves the way for Streeting to launch a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who faces increasing pressure to resign. Analysts say much of the U.K. political uncertainty is priced in for now, however, while Streeting is considered more favorable to gilt-market investors than other more left-leaning candidates. "Streeting is the more centrist market-friendly option," Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields fall 5.6 basis points on the day to last trade at 5.013%, Tradeweb data show. Gilt yields mirror falls in U.S. and eurozone government bond yields. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0856 ET - Retail investors are buying up U.K. government bonds, or gilts, due to their elevated yields, AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth says in a note. "Over the past week, gilts have ranked in top 10 for net flows on AJ Bell's DIY investment platform," he says. The highest demand is from wealthy investors seeking alternatives to cash, Coatsworth says. Domestic political uncertainty has caused gilt yields to rise as Prime Minister Keir Starmer comes under increasing pressure to resign. Ten-year gilt yields hit 5.135% this week, their highest level since 2008, Tradeweb data show. They last trade down 4.6 basis points at 5.022%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0846 ET - Demand for Treasurys picks up overnight, and yields fall, as President Trump meets with China's Xi Jinping amid U.S. inflation jitters. Weekly jobless claims stay with a long-standing range, rising to 211,000 from a downwardly revised 199,000. WSJ consensus was 205,000. April retail sales rise 0.5%, as expected, slowing from March's downwardly revised 1.6%. The Middle East standoff continues and oil prices remain above $100. The WSJ Dollar Index rises slightly. The 10-year yield is at 4.445%, down from yesterday's 4.479% settle. The two-year slips to 3.961% from 3.988%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0826 ET - Sterling briefly falls after U.K. Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned, potentially paving the way for him to launch a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer. In a letter to Starmer, which Streeting posted on X, he wrote "having lost confidence in your leadership, I have concluded that it would be dishonourable and unprincipled" to remain in post. His resignation was anticipated and he is widely expected to challenge Starmer's leadership. Sterling briefly hits an intraday low of $1.3491 and the euro reaches an intraday high of 0.8669 pounds before returning to around levels seen before the news. Yields on 10-year U.K. government bonds slightly extend falls, dropping nearly 6 basis points on the day to 5.012%, Tradeweb data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0748 ET - Bitcoin turns slightly lower in the wake of Tuesday's higher-than-expected U.S. wholesale inflation data and the ongoing stalemate between the U.S. and Iran. However, falls are limited as bitcoin is supported by institutional demand, Block Scholes crypto analysts say in a note. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds are seeing just over $1 billion in net flows in the month to date, showing investor appetite remains strong in the face of macroeconomic headwinds, they say. Meanwhile, there is no obvious event risk priced in by bitcoin or altcoin options ahead of the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday considering legislation that aims to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, they say. Bitcoin falls 0.2% to $79,543, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0700 ET - U.K. first-quarter GDP growth was better than expected, but the expansion might not last due to geopolitical pressures and domestic political tensions, Quilter's Lindsay James says in a note. U.K. GDP grew by 0.6% in the first quarter, and by 0.3% in March alone, better than the consensus forecast of a 0.2% contraction by economists in a WSJ survey. "A decent first-quarter figure may provide some political breathing space, but higher energy costs and rising government bond yields all point to a more challenging few months ahead," James says. Ten-year gilt yields fall 3.5 basis points to last trade at 5.033%, staying above the 5.0% mark, Tradewed data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0648 ET - Sterling could fall further against the U.S. dollar if upcoming U.S. data are strong and U.K. political concerns intensify, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. Decent retail sales data and higher-than-expected import and export prices data at 1230 GMT would add to the market's doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates, he says. "The pound is holding up reasonably well so far in the face of mounting political uncertainty, but the bombardment of political headlines could easily trigger a move towards this year's lows around $1.32." There are concerns Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a potential leadership challenge after his Labour Party's poor performance in last week's local elections. Sterling falls 0.1% to $1.3514. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0625 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall, reversing sharp rises seen this week, even as U.K. political uncertainty remains. Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces pressure to step down after the Labour party posted poor performance at last week's local elections. "We think that the selling pressure on U.K. bonds is on pause, and the selloff could start again if we get high tax, high spend candidates standing against Starmer," XTB's Kathleen Brooks says in a note. Ten-year gilt yields fall 3.4 basis points to last trade at 5.034%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 14, 2026 10:43 ET (14:43 GMT)
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