These reports, excerpted and edited by Barron's, were issued recently by investment and research firms. The reports are a sampling of analysts' thinking; they should not be considered the views or recommendations of Barron's. Some of the reports' issuers have provided, or hope to provide, investment-banking or other services to the companies being analyzed.
Valvoline -- VVV-NYSE Outperform -- $32.60 on May 13 by Mizuho Shares of Valvoline recently dipped about 5% and have essentially given up all of the gains following a strong fiscal second-quarter print. Our checks across social media indicate that motor oil and lubricant supply disruptions are beginning to take shape, given fallout from the Iran conflict. Private operators are likely to push through price increases as an offset. Valvoline has also taken additional price increase in recent weeks.
We connected with the company and highlight that 1) Valvoline holds adequate supply for the foreseeable future; 2) it can lean on its strategic partnership with Valvoline Global Products -- now owned by Aramco -- through its long-term supply agreement; and 3) the lower end of fiscal 2026 guidance does capture some supply-related risk. In our view, any consumer concerns of supply shortages could lead to some type of demand spike in the near term.
Target price: $40.
Dynatrace -- DT-NYSE Buy -- $39.21 on May 13 by BTIG Dynatrace [which uses artificial intelligence to monitor and analyze software and cybersecurity performance] reported solid fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results. Our initial read is more positive than negative. We were hoping for a little more upside on the print. But the forward outlook was far better than expected.
To that point, implied net new annual-recurring revenue guidance for fiscal 2027 marks the most aggressive outlook that Dynatrace has provided in years. Given the company's historical track record of meeting/exceeding targets, we think that it will prove conservative. As such, we see potential for Dynatrace's ARR growth to accelerate slightly from the 16% year-over-year pace in the past few quarters.
Target price: $53.
CoreCivic -- CXW-NYSE Buy -- $20.05 on May 13 by Benchmark Equity Research It was recently reported that the Trump administration will designate David Venturella as the next acting director for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, succeeding Todd Lyons. While most of Venturella's career has been spent at the Department of Homeland Security, he recently was an executive with GEO Group.
His appointment would appear to be a net positive for both GEO Group and CoreCivic, as he supports federal ownership of detention facilities, including turnkey facilities owned by CoreCivic. The Florida ICE facility known as Alligator Alcatraz will be closing next month due to high operating costs and widely reported subpar conditions. While most of its roughly 1,400 detainees will attrit before the facility closes (average length of stay is 60 days), the shutdown removes capacity from the system and shines a favorable light on facilities managed by CoreCivic and GEO group.
Target price: $28.
Affirm Holdings -- AFRM-Nasdaq Buy -- $65.43 on May 13 by Evercore ISI Affirm Holdings made a strong case at its recent investor day with durable proof points along with multiple diverse strategies around the theme of "it's easier to grow when you are bigger." Affirm has so many growth irons in the fire (i.e., geographic and vertical expansion, new distribution partners, product expansion, incremental channels, etc.) that it feels like we're still in the early stages of the growth and expansion investment thesis.
The key update was the new $100 billion gross-merchandise-value, or GMV, framework, which we think likely points to fiscal 2029, with a guide of more than 25% growth (we view this as a conservative bogey with plenty of room for upside), up from the more than 20% embedded in the company's prior medium-term framework in November 2023. Just as importantly, management paired that growth outlook with expanding operating margins and a tighter, healthy 3.75% to 4% revenue less transaction costs/GMV target.
Finally, while no specific details were offered, the team was clear that Affirm's product set will broaden beyond traditional buy now, pay later, with deposits/digital banking-style accounts alluded to in the funding section.
Target price/base case: $90.
Costco Wholesale -- COST-Nasdaq Buy -- $999.47 on May 11 by TD Cowen Costco Wholesale's biggest risk is being complacent, but senior management isn't standing still. Our recent meeting and warehouse tour highlighted new store formats, and a number of innovations. Meanwhile, investor debates center around timing and mix factors including gas volatility, renewals rates, and cost leverage.
We were most impressed by management's willingness to experiment and innovate across the business, while remaining disciplined and anchored to Costco's value-first operating model. Management highlighted creative real-estate solutions, innovations in checkout, deeper personalization, and artificial-intelligence-driven efficiency....
We think that Costco membership-fee income will remain a durable, high-margin growth engine, supported by continued paid member growth and executive penetration, even as renewal rates fluctuate modestly with mix.
Target price: $1,175.
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May 15, 2026 18:32 ET (22:32 GMT)
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