The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1150 ET - April's hotter-than-expected 1.4% U.S. producer price index increase doesn't change expectations around the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, but only for now. It is "the first report where energy prices are triggering inflation in other points in the supply chain," Global X's Scott Helfstein says, adding it could take three months for it to "filter into the consumer channel." Helfstein notes that markets "have now completely shifted expectations for the future Fed Funds rate, going from one cut in mid-2027 to one hike by mid-2027." Following the PPI release, the 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.489%, on pace for its highest settle since June. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1137 ET - Bitcoin is back under the $80,000 as sentiment indicators show that caution is still present in cryptocurrency trading. CryptoQuant's bull score index has retreated to 40 out of 100, while CoinMarketCap's Fear and Greed index has inched down two points to 47 out of 100. For the CryptoQuant index, a score of 40 or below is seen as a "bearish" market, says the firm. Meanwhile, a score of 47 on the Fear and Greed index is a neutral reading, although its trending back towards fear territory. Bitcoin slides 1.8% to $79,258, ethereum is down 1.4% to $2,253, XRP falls 1.5% to $1.42, and solana is down 4.1% to $90.71. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1118 ET - The U.S. rental market continues to favor renters, Realtor.com says. And a new wave of supply may keep it that way. The national median asking monthly rent across the 50 largest metropolitan areas fell to $1,673 in April, down $29, or 1.7%, year-over-year, for 0 to 2 bedroom properties. And the robustness of new multi-family construction signals that rental supply relief could continue into the next several years. The national median has fallen $92, or 5.2%, from its August 2022 peak. New multi-family groundbreakings jumped nearly 20% in 1Q, so the pipeline points to continued downward pressure on rents well into 2027, Realtor.com says. The total U.S. rental housing stock is on track to grow to over 50.5 million units by 1Q 2027, 8.5% higher than before the pandemic. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
1109 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds decline in late trade as U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer reiterates his commitment to stay on, resisting calls for him to step down by senior cabinet members and over 90 Labour Party parliamentarians. "We expect the uncertainty in politics to persist throughout the summer," Aberdeen Investments' Matthew Amis says. Ten-year gilt yields fall 2.5 basis points to last trade at 5.070%, Tradeweb data show. They hit their highest since 2008 at 5.135%% on Tuesday. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1105 ET - U.K. risk spreads are fairly contained, indicating that markets are not yet pricing in a full-blown fiscal crisis, eToro's Lale Akoner says in a note. Yields on U.K. government bonds climbed to multi-year highs on Tuesday due to political concerns as senior government officials and parliamentarians called for the Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down. U.K. risk spreads signal that investors still expect fiscal prudence will hold, Akoner says. Ten-year gilt yields fall 1.8 basis points to last trade at 5.076%, after hitting a near 18-year high of 5.135% on Tuesday, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1055 ET - Canada is sourcing fewer vehicles from the U.S. since the Trump administration launched its trade war. DesRosiers Automotive Consultants calculates that on a dollar basis the share of Canadian light vehicle imports coming from the U.S. dropped to 43.7% in 2025 from 49.1% the year before as auto companies have sought to avoid the counter-tariffs on U.S.-built products. Proportionally, the share of light vehicles coming in from Mexico rose to roughly 21% from 17% in 2024 and from other countries the share was up 1 percentage point at about 35%. When it comes to auto trade, Canada remains a net importer with most key trading partners, while close to 95% of Canada's automotive exports were still destined for the U.S., DesRosiers says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1005 ET - After receiving both CPI and PPI estimates this week, economists are beginning to publish forecasts for PCE--the Fed's preferred inflation measure. Oxford Economics predicts a 0.4% monthly increase in headline PCE prices and a 0.3% rise in core prices in April. Although weaker than the monthly rise seen in CPI and PPI, the increase would push headline PCE inflation up to 3.8% year-over-year, its highest reading since May 2023.(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
0913 ET - The index for final demand services rises 1.2% in April, according to the latest PPI report. That marks the largest increase since the 1.3% rise in March 2022, during the post-pandemic inflation surge. Some Fed officials have recently warned about sticky inflation pressures. On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the inflation side of the Fed's dual mandate is going wrong---even as the labor market remains stable but not particularly good. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
0909 ET - Markets are pricing in over a 30% probability of a rate hike by December, according to CME FedWatch. After hotter-than-expected producer price data, it is becoming more difficult for the Fed to justify any rate cuts this year. April producer prices rose 1.4%, above economists' expectations for a 0.5% increase. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
0907 ET - The dollar extends its gains to reach a near two-week high against a basket of currencies after data on U.S. wholesale inflation came in much higher than expected. The producer price index rose 1.4% in April compared to a month ago, exceeding the 0.5% increase forecast by economists in a WSJ survey. Core PPI rose 1.0% versus the 0.4% rise expected. This crushes the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. "Markets are aggressively repricing a "higher for longer" dollar regime right now." The DXY dollar index rises to a 13-day high of 98.598 after the data, up from 98.538 beforehand. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0902 ET - Treasury yields jump on new signs of accelerating inflation. April producer price index final demand prints 1.4%, the largest advance since March 2022. WSJ consensus was 0.5%. Final demand less food and energy advances 1% in April, versus consensus of 0.4%. The report comes as President Trump arrives in China, with the conflict in Iran on the agenda. Oil futures keep rising. The WSJ Dollar Index rises 0.2%. A 30-year Treasury auction is expected to have weak demand. The 10-year yield rises to 4.483% from yesterday's settle of 4.462%. The two-year rises to 4.002% from 3.995%. The 30-year is at 5.042%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0856 ET - Suspected Japanese currency interventions have taken the yen from being slightly undervalued to slightly overvalued, Standard Chartered analysts say in a note. "We think the reported cumulative $65 billion of foreign exchange intervention has strengthened the yen 1-2%." The move is likely interpreted as preventing yen weakness rather than engineering strength, they say. Japanese authorities seem to have re-established a line in the sand for the dollar versus the yen somewhere between the high 150s and 160, they say. More interventions might be needed to curtail negative yen sentiment. However, markets have pared interest-rate rise expectations for the Bank of Japan. The dollar is last up 0.2% at 157.83 yen, having reached a 21-month high of 160.72 on April 30. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 13, 2026 11:50 ET (15:50 GMT)
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