The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1200 ET - Oil futures are higher following a brief dip as the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the tighter global oil supplies will become."We believe that current WTI and Brent prices are discounting only a limited portion of the ultimate supply loss," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. "A re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz anytime soon remains highly uncertain." And with the likelihood it will take several months to restore the flow of oil through the strait and revive shut-in production, "it appears that a return to prewar oil prices by the end of this year is highly unlikely."Most active WTI is up 1.7% at $102.76 a barrel and Brent is up 1.5% at $110.89.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1159 ET - The showdown with the U.S. and Iran on the Strait of Hormuz continues, and both sides are keeping so-called "no-go" demands in their pitches to end the war and reopen trade fully. As a result, traders are pricing what a lingering war will mean for oil prices -- with the expectation that a lack of access to Middle Eastern oil will raise prices across the world and stress sectors like agriculture. "The markets are starting to deal with some longer-term realities, such that the real impact of the rising energy deficits will likely start being felt in June and July, and the longer-term realities of the fertilizer story will likely be felt with the global 2027 crops," says Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1148 ET - Gold prices remain below $4,600 a troy ounce despite a weaker U.S. dollar, as a lack of progress in Iran peace talks fuels concerns over the direction of interest rates. "The macro backdrop remains particularly difficult for gold," says Fawad Razaqzada from Forex.com. "Higher government bond yields continue to drain appeal from non-yielding assets, while elevated oil prices are reinforcing fears that inflation could remain stubbornly high for longer than markets had hoped." New York futures are down 0.4% to $4,546.10 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1101 ET - International Paper is expanding its market presence on the East Coast and building out its capabilities with the acquisition of Delmarva Corrugated Packaging's facility in Dover, Delaware. "This acquisition strengthens our footprint in the region and supports our long term growth strategy," International Paper EVP Tom Hamic says in a press release. The Dover facility has a strong customer base and a strategic location, Hamic says. Delmarva CEO Dennis Mehiel says he can't think of an organization better suited than International Paper to help the Dover facility achieve its full potential. "We are highly confident this transaction will benefit all of DCP's stakeholders," he says. The financial terms of the deal weren't disclosed. (dean.seal@wsj.com)
0959 ET - Live cattle and lean hog futures are higher, with the most-active cattle contract up 0.3% and lean hogs up 0.6%. For cattle, tough weather in many pasture-areas is supporting higher cattle prices, says Joe Davis of Futures International in a note. "Weather volatility, including rapid temperature swings and possible wet snow in parts of the Northern Plains, may create additional livestock stress in the short term," says Davis. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0950 ET - While U.S. agriculture is celebrating the announcement of China buying $17 billion-worth of U.S. agricultural goods through 2028, some analysts are questioning how beneficial such a deal will be to U.S. grains. "Traders debate whether China's proposed purchases would create truly new demand for U.S. agriculture or simply redirect global trade flows," says Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull Trading in a note. But Wiesemeyer also says this redirection could be beneficial in that it may decrease the amount of buying China does from Brazil and Argentina. Corn is up 2.9%, soybeans climb 2.1%, and wheat rises 3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0933 ET - The White House says that China will buy $17 billion worth of U.S. agriculture through 2028, on top of the soybean purchases already announced. This is giving CBOT grain futures a boost. But the reaction may be limited based on some questions about the wording from the White House. "The problem is the language is so obscurely worded," says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing-- pointing out that the language could mean any agricultural good, as opposed to crops like soybeans and corn. Corn is up 2.8%, while soybeans rise 2.2% and wheat climbs 3.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0927 ET - Rio Tinto reducing its dependency on iron ore is positive even though the division will continue to deliver high margins as prices stay above the $100-a-metric-ton level, Baader's Varun Sikka writes. Iron ore prices are volatile and the price outlook is heavily dependent on Chinese economic growth. The miner has been diversifying into metals related to the transition to low-carbon energy, like lithium and copper. Copper is close to record-highs and aluminum gains on Iran war-induced supply disruptions, the analyst adds. Meanwhile, its bet on lithium might surprise markets as the war forces customers to reconsider electric vehicles, he says. As growth projects come online, there may be a material upgrade to 2026 earnings, he adds. Its London shares trade up 0.4% to 7,802 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0921 ET - Oil futures turn lower after spiking overnight on lack of progress toward the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump's warning to Iran to move fast on a deal, and fresh drone attacks on the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia "underscore that the situation on the ground remains as volatile as ever," Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu says in a note. But "the bull run is not without its limits," he adds, noting Trump's preference for a deal that has kept the cease-fire alive, "leaving the door to a diplomatic resolution open." WTI for June delivery is down 1.9% at $103.40 ahead of tomorrow's expiration, with the most-active July contract off 1.4% at $99.65. Brent is off 1.3% at $107.80 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0831 ET - U.S. natural gas futures start the week higher with the front-month testing $3 for the first time since the end of March. Technical factors and rising weekend cooling demand forecasts are lifting trader expectations, while LNG feedgas demand remains subdued, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Speculator short positions are at an 18-month high, making risks of a short squeeze high although "far from a foregone conclusion," he says. Nymex natural gas is up 3.4% at $3.061/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0619 ET - Palm oil futures closed higher, with the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for August delivery ending 96 ringgit higher at 4,533 ringgit a metric ton. Prices likely tracked overnight gains in rival vegetable oils, say Kenanga Futures analysts in a note. Continued delays to the Strait of Hormuz's reopening due to the Middle East conflict could also support prices, say Kenanga Futures analysts in a note. They peg the support and resistance levels for the August futures contract at 4,400 ringgit and 4,520 ringgit, respectively. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0402 ET - European natural-gas prices break above 50 euros a megawatt-hour as traders see little sign of a resolution in the Middle East. "We have highlighted several times that the gas market is underpricing the scale of the supply impact from the Persian Gulf," analysts at ING say. "Asian buyers will need to enter the spot market to replace disrupted contracted cargoes from the Persian Gulf, increasing competition between Asian and European buyers." Meanwhile, storage across the European Union is at 36% of capacity, significantly below the five-year average of 50%. In early trading, the benchmark Dutch TTF front-month contract rises 2.4% to 51.36 euros a megawatt-hour. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 18, 2026 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)
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