Market maker says Ethereum is the wrong trade for this macro, dropping 10% this week

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Ethereum dropped another 10.2% this week, with the ETH/BTC ratio sinking toward 0.0275, and market maker Wintermute is now flatly calling ETH “not the right asset for this macro” as yields and ...

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In that framework, neither halving narratives nor incremental protocol upgrades are e","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"crypto.news","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"ETHV":"以太坊ETF-VanEck","GDLC":"Grayscale CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF","FETH":"以太币ETF-Fidelity","BETE":"等权重比特币&以太币期货ETF-ProShares","ETHW":"以太坊ETF-Bitwise","STCE":"Schwab Crypto Thematic ETF","ETH":"低成本以太坊ETF-Grayscale","BETH":"比特币&以太币期货ETF-ProShares","BITQ":"Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators ETF","BTCL":"T-REX 2X LONG BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF","YETH":"Roundhill Ether Covered Call Strategy ETF","ETHA":"以太坊ETF-iShares","BTCI":"NEOS Bitcoin High Income ETF","EETH":"以太币期货ETF-ProShares","AETH":"以太坊策略ETF-Bitwise","09179":"嘉实以太币-U","BEGS":"RAREVIEW 2X BULL CRYPTOCURRENCY & PRECIOUS METALS ETF","ARKY":"ARK 21SHARES ACTIVE BITCOIN ETHEREUM STRATEGY ETF","MSBT":"Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust ETP","BKCH":"AdvisorShares Sabretooth ETF","LFGY":"YieldMax Crypto Industry and Tech Portfolio Option Income ETF","BTRN":"比特币期货ETF-Global X","YBIT":"YieldMax Bitcoin Option Income ETF","ETHD":"ProShares UltraShort Ether ETF","IBIT":"比特币ETF-iShares","BITW":"Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF","09046":"华夏以太币-U","EZET":"以太坊ETF-Franklin","MAXI":"比特币期货ETF-Simplify","BTF":"比特币&以太币期货ETF-CoinShares","ETHE":"最大以太坊ETF-Grayscale","BITX":"2倍比特币期货ETF-Volatility Shares","CBTJ":"Calamos Bitcoin 80 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF - January","QETH":"以太坊ETF-Invesco Galaxy","MNRS":"GRAYSCALE BITCOIN MINERS ETF","YBTC":"比特币看涨期权ETF-Roundhill","BTGD":"STKD Bitcoin & Gold ETF","CETH":"以太坊ETF-21Shares","BTCZ":"T-Rex 2X Inverse Bitcoin Daily Target ETF","ETHT":"ProShares Ultra Ether ETF","ETU":"T-Rex 2X Long Ether Daily Target ETF","BTFX":"比特币期货ETF-CoinShares","09009":"博时以太币-U","ETHU":"2倍以太币期货ETF-Volatility Shares","BRRR":"比特币ETF-CoinShares"},"translate_title":"做市商称以太币是本次宏观经济的错误交易，本周下跌10%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"IBIT":0.9,"YETH":1.5,"YBTC":0.9,"EETH":1.5,"ARKY":1.5,"STCE":1.5,"ETH":1.5,"AETH":1.5,"ETHT":1.5,"BITW":1.5,"BRRR":0.85,"ETHA":1.5,"BKCH":1.5,"ETU":1.5,"BTF":1.5,"FETH":1.5,"QETH":1.5,"ETHD":1.5,"BTCI":0.9,"LFGY":1.5,"BTGD":0.85,"CETH":1.5,"BTCZ":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"09009":1.5,"MSBT":0.9,"MNRS":0.9,"09046":1.5,"METHmain":1.5,"EZET":1.5,"BTFX":0.9,"BETH":1.5,"BTRN":0.85,"GDLC":1.5,"BITQ":1.5,"BEGS":1.5,"09179":1.5,"CBTJ":0.9,"ETHE":1.5,"ETHV":1.5,"BITX":0.85,"BETE":1.5,"MAXI":0.9,"ETHU":1.5,"ETHW":1.5,"YBIT":0.85,"BTCL":0.9},"content_text":"Ethereum dropped another 10.2% this week, with the ETH/BTC ratio sinking toward 0.0275, and market maker Wintermute is now flatly calling ETH “not the right asset for this macro” as yields and inflation grind higher.\n\n\nSummary\n\n\n\nWintermute says ETH is “not the right asset for this macro” as real yields rise and inflation re-accelerates.\nETH has slid 10.2% this week, with the ETH/BTC pair pressing 0.0275 amid underperformance in both spot and derivatives.\nThe firm also warns that being outright long BTC here is a bet that institutions will ignore rising Treasury yields and come back in size.\n\n\n\nAccording to a note shared via industry channels and summarized by WuBlockchain on X, Wintermute says Ethereum’s (ETH) latest 10.2% weekly slide continues a pattern of underperformance “across both spot and derivatives markets,” with the ETH/BTC ratio pressing 0.0275 as traders rotate away from smart-contract beta into safer corners of the crypto complex. The firm’s verdict is blunt: “ETH is not the right asset for this macro,” citing an environment of rising Treasury yields, renewed inflation concerns and a market that is rewarding hard-asset narratives and cashflow clarity over long-duration tech bets.\nWintermute’s macro read is that crypto is now trading more like a high-beta extension of equity and credit risk, and that the current regime—re-accelerating inflation prints, stickier real yields and crowded trades in AI and growth stocks—is hostile to assets whose payoff is far out on the horizon. Ethereum, whose core bull case rests on future fee growth from DeFi, real-world assets, and L2 activity, fits that “long duration” profile, and the lack of a decisive on-chain usage surge leaves it particularly vulnerable when discount rates move higher. Recent technical work has been pointing to a choppy, range-bound ETH with only “measured optimism” toward levels like $2,300, warning that bearish MACD and fragile support around the low-$2,000s could make the path higher messy at best.\nOn Bitcoin, Wintermute is hardly pounding the table either. The firm cautions that being outright long BTC at current levels is effectively a macro bet that institutional investors will step back into spot and ETF markets despite higher yields and a still-uncertain inflation trajectory—something it thinks may be “difficult” until markets fully digest the shifting backdrop and the AI trade shows signs of cooling. In earlier reports, Wintermute argued that AI-linked equities and tokens have been “continuously absorbing available market funds,” leaving crypto in “high-volatility, low-spot-demand price discovery” as U.S. selling and ETF outflows bite.\nThat view dovetails with the firm’s broader 2026 outlook, where it has already declared the classic four-year crypto cycle “over” and replaced by a regime dominated by institutional capital flows and product rails such as ETFs and digital asset trusts. In that framework, neither halving narratives nor incremental protocol upgrades are enough; what matters is whether ETF mandates broaden, whether big allocators decide to treat BTC as macro collateral again, and whether secondary-market and token-launch activity (“DAT activity”) actually picks up.\nFor now, Wintermute’s message is that crypto is stuck in an awkward macro cross-current: liquidity exists, but it’s choosing AI and equities; yields are rising, making long-duration crypto bets less attractive; and structural inflows into both BTC and ETH are muted. In that mix, ETH’s combination of duration, still-unproven fee growth and fading narrative momentum makes it, in their words, “not the right asset for this macro,” while even BTC longs are, in effect, fading the bond market and betting that institutional risk appetite turns back toward digital assets before something in traditional markets snaps.\n\n\n\n\n\n                Read more:\n            \n\n                Polymarket, Nasdaq team up on private-company prediction markets","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.2","shortVersion":"4.42.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2636016861","isCrawlerRequest":true}