The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1947 ET - Japanese stocks may rise amid hopes for a possible U.S.-Iran deal to end the war. Nikkei futures are up 1.2% at 61595 on the SGX. President Trump has said he will hold off on a planned U.S. attack on Iran to make room for negotiations with Tehran. The dollar is at 158.81 yen, compared with Y158.88 as of Monday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in the Middle East and any measures by the Japanese government and businesses to deal with a shortage of energy and other products. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 1.0% to 60815.95 on Monday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1550 ET - Treasury yields rise slightly as markets wait for the next shoe to drop in the Middle East. President Trump says on Truth Social that he cancelled an attack on Iran scheduled for tomorrow, while asking the military to be prepared to attack "on a moment's notice" if a deal can't be reached. Geopolitical headlines are likely to drive markets this week, in the absence of relevant data points. Oil prices rise and the WSJ Dollar Index is down 0.2%. The 10-year yield rises 0.027 percentage point to 4.622% and the two-year advances 0.007 p.p. to 4.090%. Both are at their highest level since February 2025. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1549 ET - The minutes from the Fed's April meeting arrive Wednesday afternoon. But perhaps just interesting to some Fed watchers will be two public appearances by Fed governor Christopher Waller. He is speaking on a panel Tuesday morning and delivering an economic-outlook speech on Friday morning, both while traveling in Germany. Up until the spring, Waller was one of the Fed officials who most favored further interest-rate cuts, although the Iran conflict has tempered his stance amid new inflation concerns. If Waller further distances himself from 2026 rate cuts, or even suggests he thinks the Fed may need to raise rates this year, it would be a stark sign of how much the Middle East energy-market shock has altered the Fed's balance of risks, Brent Donnelly of Spectra Markets writes. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
1445 ET - U.S. consumers continue to spend, JPMorgan analysts say, countering investors' fears of a slowdown given higher gas and energy prices due to the conflict in the Middle East. The analysts say Chase credit card data point to total U.S. consumer spending growth of 6.4% month to date through May 8, just above an increase of 6.1% in the first quarter and accelerating from 4.6% growth in the fourth quarter. Some public and private companies alike also say they've seen no slowdown with U.S. consumers to date, the analysts say. U.S. consumers are willing to pay full price for fashion and newness, and have been resilient when it comes to spending on leisure including on cruise lines and theme parks, they say. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1322 ET - Tokenization, the process of putting real-world assets onto the blockchain, is growing exponentially in 2026 but may expand into a market worth over $1 trillion by 2030, according to Moulik Nagesh of Binance Research in a note. Nagesh says that currently, these tokenized assets account for $31.4 billion of value. That's already up 46% from the start of the year, and more than five times what they were worth in 2025, he says. But there is much more growth potential for tokens representing commodities like gold and oil ahead. "The long-term opportunity is large because current penetration remains extremely low," says Nagesh, assessing that penetration at 0.01%. Tokenization of 1% of the markets they represent would result in values over $1 trillion, Nagesh says. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1315 ET - U.S. homebuilders will need to work off more of their unsold inventory before there is a notable pick up in single-family housing starts, a note from Oxford Economics says. Homebuilder sentiment improved in May but remained in negative territory because demand was affected by higher mortgage rates and uncertainty tied to the war in Iran, according to the NAHB homebuilder sentiment index. "Housing starts will mostly move sideways for the next couple of quarters before starting to edge up slightly around year-end, when we expect mortgage rates to be lower as the Fed implements the first of two rate cuts we expect," they predict. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1206 ET - Analysts at Monetary Policy Analytics, a firm of Fed watchers, don't yet think a rate hike is likely this year. But it's a scenario that has become a lot more plausible given recent data, the firm's Kevin Burgett writes in a note. He points out that after a strong retail-sales release for April, the Atlanta Fed's 2Q GDP tracker is tracking 4% real GDP growth, while inflation numbers are picking up as well. "We're not on the cusp of calling for rate hikes, but various recent data...are of the sort that, if repeated, would help build a case that policy isn't sufficiently restrictive," he writes. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)
1148 ET - Gold prices remain below $4,600 a troy ounce despite a weaker U.S. dollar, as a lack of progress in Iran peace talks fuels concerns over the direction of interest rates. "The macro backdrop remains particularly difficult for gold," says Fawad Razaqzada from Forex.com. "Higher government bond yields continue to drain appeal from non-yielding assets, while elevated oil prices are reinforcing fears that inflation could remain stubbornly high for longer than markets had hoped." New York futures are down 0.4% to $4,546.10 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1123 ET - CoinMarketCap's Crypto Market Fear and Greed Index is back down to a 'fear' reading today, according to the firm. The index is assessed at 37-out-of-100 today, which brings it below the threshold of 'neutral' and into 'fear' territory. That's as bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies drop in early trading, with bitcoin back to lower levels after jumping to a new near-term high of $82,000 last week. This is a reversal from last month, when the market briefly peaked just above the threshold for "greed." Bitcoin falls 2.5% to $76,295, ethereum is down 3.7% to $2,108, XRP down 3% to $1.38, and solana down 3.2% to $83.91. Concerns about higher interest rates are pressing on the crypto markets. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1040 ET - The dollar could advance further over the short term as high energy prices make U.S. interest-rate cuts look increasingly unlikely while rate-hike prospects grow, MUFG analysts say in a note. Federal Reserve minutes Wednesday "will likely reveal a growing opposition to rate cuts." Additionally, with Kevin Warsh due to take over the role as Fed Chair, his first public comments will be crucial, they say. U.S. money markets currently price a 71% chance of a rate hike in January 2027, LSEG data show. Any hint that Warsh is concerned about inflation risks could increase rate-hike expectations and lift the dollar, the analysts say. The DXY dollar index falls 0.2% to 99.083, having risen to a near six-week high of 99.409 overnight. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)
1036 ET - The idea of new Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh ushering in a regime of interest rate cuts has faded, which is one reason bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are down. Bitcoin is off 2% to $76,660, according to data from LSEG, bringing the value down to a near-term support level after rising as high as $82,000 last week. Trading below $78,000 for an extended period will be a test for bitcoin, one "that could determine whether the broader recovery structure remains intact," says Bitfinex in a note. Lower capital inflows into bitcoin ETFs are showing that institutional interest in bitcoin may not be as strong as hoped for, says the firm. The divergence suggests that "institutional conviction remains insufficient to absorb ongoing macroeconomic shocks and rate volatility," Bitfinex says. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1019 ET - Providence, R.I., tops Zillow's hottest rental markets list, edging out New York and San Francisco for the No. 1 spot. For renters in these markets, competition is fierce. More people want to live there than there are homes to rent. Whether for access to amenities, strong job markets or family ties, renters are competing over a limited supply, according to Zillow. The U.S. built more new units in 2024 than any year in the past half-century, Zillow says, but that boom largely bypassed the Northeast and coastal California, which is why rental competition there is so intense. In Providence, rents are up 5% year-over- year, and with just 12.9% of property managers offering concessions--the lowest share in the top 10--renters are finding little room to negotiate. The typical rent is $2,154 a month. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 18, 2026 19:47 ET (23:47 GMT)
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