By Marcus Walker and Anastasiia Malenko
KYIV -- Ukraine's military has wrestled Russia's much-larger army almost to a halt in recent months, having gained a tactical and technological edge.
This summer will test whether it can turn that slender advantage into a strategic turning point.
Fast-improving Ukrainian drone capabilities are hurting the invaders' logistics behind the battlefield, and pounding oil infrastructure and military targets deeper inside Russia.
"We are not only holding the line, but we are also increasing pressure," Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in April. Russia's monthly casualties now exceed its army recruitment, he said. "We are making every meter of Ukrainian land extremely costly for the enemy."
In Russia, discontent is growing over a war that no longer feels far away as oil refineries burn and the authorities clamp down on the internet for fear of dissent. Russian authorities said they intercepted more than 600 drones on Sunday in one of Ukraine's largest attacks of the war, which hit targets in the Moscow region and killed at least three people.
It is too soon to say that the biggest war in Europe since World War II has reached an inflection point, many analysts warn. Russia's war is going badly -- but not badly enough to force President Vladimir Putin's hand. And he is so far showing no sign of giving up his ambition to subjugate Ukraine.
"Ukraine is certainly in a stronger position than many expected," said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst and head of Gady Consulting. But war involves cycles of adaptation, and the question is whether Russia can find answers to Ukraine's improvements, he said. "In this phase of the war, we can really only look a few weeks ahead with any confidence."
Ukraine is slowing Russia's advance
Russia's advances so far this year are the slowest in two years, with little to show for losses that analysts put at up to 35,000 soldiers killed or wounded a month.
Ukrainian brigades have learned how to deal better with Russian infiltration tactics, hunting down enemy soldiers who slip past infantry positions with drones and cleanup teams, said Rob Lee, a Kyiv-based military analyst and fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a think tank in Philadelphia.
Russia relied heavily on the tactic of sending forward tiny groups of soldiers to infiltrate gaps in the front line in 2025. "We're seeing diminishing returns for Russia from last year's adaptations," said Lee.
Some Ukrainian units have been honing new counterattacking tactics that combine drones and infantry. Ukraine's chronic manpower shortage limits it to local gains, not major breakthroughs. But parts of the 600-mile front line are now contested in both directions, unlike in 2025, when Ukraine was on the back foot almost everywhere.
Successful local counterattacks are boosting morale, said the commander of a drone unit in Ukraine's Presidential Brigade fighting on the southern front.
The shutdown of Russia's unauthorized use of the Starlink internet service and Ukrainian brigades' growing use of ground drones for logistics, and even combat, are helping Ukraine's overstretched infantry.
Some analysts estimate that Russia has lost more territory than it has gained in recent weeks, while others reckon Russia has made minimal net gains, depending on how they classify the gray zone that neither army fully controls.
Ukraine has improved its midrange drone game
Ukraine's gains in the medium-range drone contest, between about 20 and 200 miles behind the front line, is perhaps the biggest change this spring.
It is deploying a growing fleet of midrange drones, such as the Hornet and FP-2 models, that are hitting Russian drone teams, logistics, command posts, air defenses, warehouses and other targets deep in the rear. That is making it harder for Russia to support its front-line operations.
Starlink, sometimes in combination with artificial intelligence, is giving Ukrainian drones an advantage. Intensive research-and-development efforts and growing numbers of skilled pilots are also bearing fruit, said the head of drone systems in the 1st Azov Corps of Ukraine's National Guard, which has published videos of successful strikes against Russian logistics.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has improved its countermeasures against Russian midrange drones, building out a layered system of radar, electronic jamming and interceptor teams. "Russia is having more difficulty striking at this range," said Lee.
Russia's forces are stretched too
A shortage of front-line troops continues to plague Ukrainian brigades. But it isn't only Ukraine that has manpower problems.
Since late 2025, the number of Russians killed or seriously wounded has matched Russia's recruitment, so the invasion force is no longer growing, said Gady.
The cost of recruiting men with hefty signing-up bonuses has been weighing on Russian finances. But the U.S.-led war on Iran has relieved some of the pressure by driving up oil prices, combined with an easing of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil.
"For now, the flow of people ready to be recruited for money still continues," said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a think tank in Berlin.
Ukraine is striking deeper inside Russia
Ukraine's growing arsenal of long-range drones and domestically produced missiles has been hitting oil infrastructure and military facilities deeper inside Russia.
The damage to oil refineries and export terminals has partially offset revenue from rising crude prices, but hasn't canceled them out. Russia enjoyed sharply higher oil-export revenue in March and April, according to the International Energy Agency.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's air defenses are downing most of Russia's long-range drones. But Ukraine remains vulnerable to Russian ballistic missiles. The U.S.-Iran war has worsened a shortage of interceptor missiles for Patriot air-defense batteries.
Still, the mood has improved in Ukraine's cities this spring after Russian missiles pummeled the heating and power supplies over the winter. The barrage didn't lead to the mass exodus from cities the Moscow might have hoped for.
'A stubborn guy leading Russia' is sticking to his war aims
Most Ukrainians, although exhausted by years of suffering under bombardment, see no choice but to resist the invasion until Russia is willing to settle on terms that protect Ukraine's independence.
In Russia, despite the spreading consciousness that the war is a quagmire, there is no sign of Putin shrinking his war aims.
A "smart, rational version of Putin" might calculate that it is better to settle this year, seeking the maximum concessions from President Trump -- such as a lifting of U.S. sanctions, and American recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea -- before the U.S. midterm elections, said Gabuev.
"The problem is there's a stubborn guy leading Russia who still seems to believe that Ukraine will fall," he said. "The war is likely to continue because of that."
Write to Marcus Walker at Marcus.Walker@wsj.com and Anastasiia Malenko at anastasiia.malenko@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 18, 2026 22:00 ET (02:00 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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