By Paul R. La Monica
The AI momentum trade is back in a big way. And it looks like it's here to stay for a while. So the logical question? How to play it, of course.
Chip makers Nvidia and Micron have been big gainers along with Magnificent Seven hyperscalers Amazon and Alphabet, which are making massive investments in artificial intelligence.
It would seem reasonable to steer clear of these winners. But you would be wrong.
One technical analyst, Ari Wald of Oppenheimer & Co., thinks the thing to do is load up on Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet -- not only Mag Seven names but, in the case of the first three, also Dow Jones Industrial Average components -- and sell the Dow's laggards such as Salesforce, Nike, IBM, and Home Depot.
"Concerns around overbought trading often coincide with skepticism towards momentum investing," Wald wrote in a report. "However, momentum has historically been a durable late-cycle outperformer."
The momentum rally has been so pervasive, in fact, that a good number of experts argue it even makes sense to try to find names in sectors that are typically more defensive, such as consumer staples and healthcare.
For example, PepsiCo., Monster Beverage, and Mondelez look good to analysts at 22V Research. So do CVS, Cigna, Bristol Myers Squibb, and Biogen.
But what about the notion that the rally would start to broaden beyond tech? Can semiconductors really keep surging? A lot depends on Nvidia's earnings and guidance, which come out on Wednesday.
Whatever Nvidia's numbers show, DataTrek Research co-founder Jessica Rabe is confident that the strength of the tech-heavy Nasdaq "reflects renewed momentum in the AI-driven tech bull market, not its end."
The same is probably true for the iShares Edge MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF, which is loaded with leading chip and semiconductor equipment stocks. Top holdings in the ETF are more than a few familiar names -- Micron, Broadcom, Nvidia, Intel, AMD, and Lam Research.
Still, fellow DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas cautions you to manage your expectations for gains. Yes, the ETF has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 100 days by more than anytime since 2015.
But "history shows that the momentum factor usually continues to outperform after similarly outsized gains, but only slightly," he said.
OK. Fair warning. Slightly outperforming, though, is certainly better than underperforming.
It isn't time to bail on momentum just yet.
Write to Paul R. La Monica at paul.lamonica@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 18, 2026 14:12 ET (18:12 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments