FOMC minutes show a Fed worried divided on the easing bias, increasingly worried about the Iran war’s impact on inflation

Kitco05-20

(Kitco News) – The minutes from the April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed members still struggling with the uncertainty surrounding the economic impacts of the Iran war, with...

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increasingly worried about the Iran war’s impact on inflation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-20 18:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-20/fomc-minutes-show-fed-worried-divided-easing-bias-increasingly-worried><strong>Kitco</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Kitco News) – The minutes from the April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed members still struggling with the uncertainty surrounding the economic impacts of the Iran war, with...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-20/fomc-minutes-show-fed-worried-divided-easing-bias-increasingly-worried\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AGG","symbol_name":"债券指数ETF-iShares 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rate hold in favor of a quarter-point cut.In the staff review of the financial situation, they noted that “the conflict in the Middle East had continued to be a key factor driving asset price movements.” The Fed noted that “equity prices had more than reversed their earlier declines, while 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose a bit further over the intermeeting period, as did near-term inflation compensation.”The staff “observed that the crude oil futures curve was higher than the curve prevailing at the time of the March FOMC meeting,” and it “remained steeply downward sloping, consistent with investor expectations of oil prices falling considerably in coming months.” They noted, however, that the curve's forecasting record was mixed.On inflation expectations, the staff noted that near-term inflation expectations had again moved higher, though expectations for 2027 and beyond were little changed. “The survey results and market-based measures of inflation compensation pointed to longer-term expectations remaining well anchored near the Committee's 2 percent longer-run inflation objective,” they wrote.On monetary policy expectations, the minutes noted that market participants “anticipated little change this year in the target range for the federal funds rate, and options prices implied around a 30 percent probability of a rate hike by the first quarter of 2027,” while the Desk survey indicated “two 25 basis point rate reductions over the next year, but respondents now expected them to occur later than in the previous survey, with rate cuts expected in the third or fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.”Turning to the economic outlook,Fed staff noted that the outlook for economic activity “was slightly stronger than the one prepared for the March meeting,” with real GDP “projected to slightly outpace potential in coming years, with growth supported by favorable financial conditions, continued gains in AI-related capital spending, and a reversal of some of the factors that were expected to weigh on activity this year, including weak foreign growth and uncertainty about the outlook.” Meanwhile, the unemployment rate “was expected to remain close to the staff's estimate of its longer-run rate this year and next before edging slightly below it in 2028.”The staff's inflation forecast for 2026 “was higher than the one prepared for the March meeting, reflecting incoming data, higher energy prices, and other effects of the Middle East conflict that were expected to add to consumer price inflation,” they wrote. “Inflation was projected to slow after the first half of this year as the economic effects of the various conflict-related factors dissipated and as the pass-through of higher tariffs to inflation waned; by the end of next year, inflation was expected to be close to 2 percent.”“The staff continued to view the uncertainty around the projection as elevated in light of the conflict in the Middle East and the potential economic consequences of AI adoption,” the minutes added. “On balance, risks to the forecasts for employment and real GDP growth were seen as tilted to the downside. Risks to the inflation projection were seen as skewed to the upside: With inflation having run significantly above 2 percent over the past five years, with further increases in inflation likely to occur as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, and with emergent price pressures in a few categories that appeared unrelated to tariffs or energy prices, the staff viewed the possibility that inflation would be more persistent than anticipated as a salient risk.”Turning to FOMC members’ deliberations, the minutes noted that participants observed that both overall and core inflation had moved up, while “several participants noted that the rate of increase in core goods prices remained elevated, at least in part reflecting the effects of tariffs. Some participants observed that higher fuel prices had caused a number of other prices to increase, including shipping costs and airfares.”“Most participants noted that measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained stable,” the minutes added. “Some participants observed that measures of near-term inflation expectations had risen recently, likely reflecting the recent rise in global energy prices.”Regarding the labor market, “participants observed that the unemployment rate had been little changed in recent months, while job gains had remained low on average,” while most participants “judged that recent data, such as readings on the unemployment rate, layoffs, hiring, and labor force growth, suggested stabilization in the labor market.”While FOMC members “generally expected labor market conditions to remain stable in the near term,” the minutes also said that most participants judged “that risks to the employment side of the Committee's dual mandate were tilted to the downside.”In their consideration of monetary policy, FOMC members “observed that inflation was elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices,” while “recent indicators suggested that economic activity had been expanding at a solid pace,” and that while “job gains had remained low,” the unemployment rate “had been little changed in recent months.”“Against this backdrop, almost all participants supported maintaining the current target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting,” the minutes stated. “Participants generally judged that the current policy rate was within the range of plausible estimates of its neutral level and that the Committee still remained well positioned to base the extent and timing of adjustments to the policy rate on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” “One participant preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate 25 basis points, noting concerns that the current policy stance was overly restrictive in a situation of downside risks to the labor market.”Turning to the outlook for monetary policy, FOMC members judged that elevated inflation readings “together with uncertainty related to the duration and economic implications of the Middle East conflict could necessitate maintaining the current policy stance for longer than previously anticipated.”“Several participants highlighted that it would likely be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate once there are clear indications that disinflation is firmly back on track or if solid signs emerge of greater weakness in the labor market,” they said. “A majority of participants highlighted, however, that some policy firming would likely become appropriate if inflation were to continue to run persistently above 2 percent. To address this possibility, many participants indicated that they would have preferred removing the language from the postmeeting statement that suggested an easing bias regarding the likely direction of the Committee's future interest rate decisions.”In discussions about risk-management on the outlook for monetary policy, “participants assessed that both upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment remained elevated,” with several participants saying that were the Iran conflict to be resolved soon, “rate reductions would be warranted later this year if the effects of higher tariffs and energy prices on inflation were to dissipate in line with their expectations.” “Some participants expressed concerns, however, about a scenario in which sustained elevated energy prices, combined with the effects of tariffs, could result in inflation pressures becoming embedded more broadly, potentially de-anchoring inflation expectations and creating a greater tradeoff between the Committee's employment and inflation goals,” they warned.Voting for the rate hold and statement were Chair Powell along with Williams, Barr, Bowman, Cook, Jefferson, Paulson and Waller. Voting against the hold was Stephen Miran, who “preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting,” while Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan “supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.”Gold prices saw little reaction to the 2 pm Eastern release as they continued to trade in a very narrow $7 range. Spot gold last traded at $4,537.10 for a gain of 1.23% on the session.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.2","shortVersion":"4.42.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2637082710","isCrawlerRequest":true}