The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1125 ET - CBOT corn futures are up 0.3% after spending much of the opening hours oscillating between either side of unchanged. Strong export demand reported by the USDA this morning for corn is teaming with questions about if the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is coming within the next month -- or if China's $17B deal for American agriculture will result in booming demand at a time where inputs and logistics are still squeezed. "China securing additional ag products has tipped the scales with U.S. farmers enjoying expanded profitability," says Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group in a note. "Demand-led bull markets are ahead." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1112 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories post their first triple-digit increase in four weeks, rising slightly more than expected and increasing the surplus over the five-year average. Natural gas in underground storage was up by 101 billion cubic feet at 2,391 Bcf in the week ended May 15, the EIA reports. That put stocks 149 Bcf above the 2021-2025 average, compared with a surplus of 140 Bcf the week before. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey had predicted a 95 Bcf injection. Nymex natural gas futures hold their ground following the report, rising 0.3% at $3.012/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1027 ET - The Brazilian harvest is forecast to come in strong this year, says Brazilian crop agency Conab in a note. The harvest is estimated to be 18% higher at 66.7 million bags, which would be a record for Brazil. Total acreage cultivated for coffee was 2.34 million hectares this year, Conab adds, which is up 3.9% from the prior year. Coffee futures on the Intercontinental Exchange are up 1% to $2.71 a pound, according to data from FactSet. But coffee has been declining since the start of 2026, falling 28% from a year-high of $3.75 a pound January 6. Of the total bags expected to be harvested, arabica coffee is seen totaling 45.8 million bags, Conab says. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1025 ET - Livestock futures are down in early trading on the CME, with lean hog futures down 0.8% and live cattle down 0.4%. Meanwhile, crude oil futures are trending higher, with light crude oil up 4% to over $102 a barrel. Higher oil prices have been linked to pressure on cattle futures, in that beef is expensive and higher gas prices may force shoppers to choose other cheaper cuts of meat. But the pressure on beef doesn't seem to be benefiting pork, as pork cutout prices continue to trend weaker as well. Average carcass cutouts fell by $1.41 per cwt yesterday, to $95.47 per cwt, according to USDA data. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1021 ET - Canada as a net oil exporter typically benefits from higher crude prices, though research by Scotiabank indicates that may have limits. Modelling director Olivier Gervais says higher oil prices remain a net positive for activity in Canada at current levels, but the macro payoff diminishes as prices rise. He finds evidence that once oil prices move into the US$120-US$130 range they no longer provide a statistically meaningful boost to Canadian activity. Gervais cautions against seeing this as a precise tipping point, but instead considers it an indicative zone where the positive relationship becomes markedly less clear. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1009 ET - Grain traders were hopeful earlier this week that the White House's announcement of new buying of agriculture by the Chinese would be wind in the sails of CBOT grain futures, but that enthusiasm seems to be flagging as rainfall arrives for the U.S. farmers that need it -- essentially cancelling out any sort of tighter supply picture in grains, says ADM Investor Services. "Prospects for Chinese buying for now are being more than offset by favorable U.S. weather," says analysts for the firm in a note. Grain futures are mixed in early trading, with most-active corn down 0.1%, soybeans up 0.1%, and wheat down 0.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0859 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are holding around the key $3 mark ahead of the EIA's weekly inventory report due at 10:30 a.m. ET. Analysts in a WSJ survey predict an injection of 95 Bcf, fractionally larger than the 92 Bcf five-year average for the week. It would put stocks 143 Bcf or 6.4% above the average. "A surprise in either direction could spark an outsized move," ahead of the Memorial Day weekend and next week's June options and contract expiry, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Nymex natural gas is up 0.3% at $3.012/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0855 ET - Crude futures turn higher as a report that Iran insists on keeping its enriched uranium lowers expectations for a deal to be reached with the U.S. A Reuters report that Iran's supreme leader says the uranium must stay in Iran "effectively kills the idea that we are anywhere near a peace plan that will end this mess," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. The turnaround follows price declines after President Trump said the negotiations were in the final stages. WTI is up 2.4% at $100.62 a barrel, and Brent gains 1.8% to $106.91 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0625 ET - Palm oil futures closed lower, with the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for August delivery closing 126 ringgit lower at 4,457 ringgit a metric ton. Prices likely faced pressure by softer trading in rival vegetable oils overnight, as optimism around a potential U.S.-Iran deal eased Middle East risk premiums and likely capped gains in the broader oil complex, say Kenanga Futures analysts. Concerns over weaker export demand and continued profit-taking could have also pressured prices, they say. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0607 ET - Aluminum prices rise as the Iran war continues to tighten global supply. Three-month aluminum futures on the LME are up 0.7% to $3,656 a metric ton after earlier touching $3,684--the highest level since mid-May. Preliminary production data from the Gulf region showed aluminum output fell 26.7% in April from the previous month, according to the International Aluminium Institute. With Gulf production running roughly 38% below prewar levels and no meaningful increase in output elsewhere to offset the shortfall, the trade group says the global market is sliding deeper into structural deficit. "The region's smelters cannot replenish raw-material stocks through the Strait of Hormuz and are trying alternate land routes to keep operating," Jonathan Grant, secretary general of the IAI, says. "That equation is now catching up with production in a very direct way." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0534 ET - Asia's nontech exports remain at risk if geopolitical tensions escalate, Morgan Stanley says in a research note. In that scenario, oil prices could exceed $150 a barrel and remain elevated for several months, which would trigger a global recession, MS says. Pricing could also remain elevated for other materials critical to the supply chain, including petrochemicals, fertilizers, plastics and inputs for semiconductor manufacturing, MS says. "While this will create a dent in the near-term growth momentum, we think that the structural drivers to the capital expenditure and industrial cycle will mean that nontech exports will stage a quick and strong rebound from the trough," MS says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0523 ET - Oil prices slip in volatile trade, with Brent crude falling 0.2% to $104.76 a barrel and WTI futures down 0.1% to $98.11 a barrel. Both benchmarks were up more than 1% earlier in the session. "The oil market remains overly sensitive to Iran-related headlines, with participants continuing to pin considerable hope on reports that talks between the U.S. and Iran are progressing," analysts at ING say. "We've been in this situation multiple times before, which ultimately led to disappointment." While a peace deal and reopening of Hormuz could initially trigger a surge in supply from tankers already loaded and awaiting departure, a full normalization would likely take months due to disrupted logistics, rerouted shipping flows and depleted inventories, market watchers say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 21, 2026 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments