The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0859 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are holding around the key $3 mark ahead of the EIA's weekly inventory report due at 10:30 a.m. ET. Analysts in a WSJ survey predict an injection of 95 Bcf, fractionally larger than the 92 Bcf five-year average for the week. It would put stocks 143 Bcf or 6.4% above the average. "A surprise in either direction could spark an outsized move," ahead of the Memorial Day weekend and next week's June options and contract expiry, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Nymex natural gas is up 0.3% at $3.012/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0855 ET - Crude futures turn higher as a report that Iran insists on keeping its enriched uranium lowers expectations for a deal to be reached with the U.S. A Reuters report that Iran's supreme leader says the uranium must stay in Iran "effectively kills the idea that we are anywhere near a peace plan that will end this mess," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. The turnaround follows price declines after President Trump said the negotiations were in the final stages. WTI is up 2.4% at $100.62 a barrel, and Brent gains 1.8% to $106.91 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0625 ET - Palm oil futures closed lower, with the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for August delivery closing 126 ringgit lower at 4,457 ringgit a metric ton. Prices likely faced pressure by softer trading in rival vegetable oils overnight, as optimism around a potential U.S.-Iran deal eased Middle East risk premiums and likely capped gains in the broader oil complex, say Kenanga Futures analysts. Concerns over weaker export demand and continued profit-taking could have also pressured prices, they say. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0607 ET - Aluminum prices rise as the Iran war continues to tighten global supply. Three-month aluminum futures on the LME are up 0.7% to $3,656 a metric ton after earlier touching $3,684--the highest level since mid-May. Preliminary production data from the Gulf region showed aluminum output fell 26.7% in April from the previous month, according to the International Aluminium Institute. With Gulf production running roughly 38% below prewar levels and no meaningful increase in output elsewhere to offset the shortfall, the trade group says the global market is sliding deeper into structural deficit. "The region's smelters cannot replenish raw-material stocks through the Strait of Hormuz and are trying alternate land routes to keep operating," Jonathan Grant, secretary general of the IAI, says. "That equation is now catching up with production in a very direct way." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0534 ET - Asia's nontech exports remain at risk if geopolitical tensions escalate, Morgan Stanley says in a research note. In that scenario, oil prices could exceed $150 a barrel and remain elevated for several months, which would trigger a global recession, MS says. Pricing could also remain elevated for other materials critical to the supply chain, including petrochemicals, fertilizers, plastics and inputs for semiconductor manufacturing, MS says. "While this will create a dent in the near-term growth momentum, we think that the structural drivers to the capital expenditure and industrial cycle will mean that nontech exports will stage a quick and strong rebound from the trough," MS says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0523 ET - Oil prices slip in volatile trade, with Brent crude falling 0.2% to $104.76 a barrel and WTI futures down 0.1% to $98.11 a barrel. Both benchmarks were up more than 1% earlier in the session. "The oil market remains overly sensitive to Iran-related headlines, with participants continuing to pin considerable hope on reports that talks between the U.S. and Iran are progressing," analysts at ING say. "We've been in this situation multiple times before, which ultimately led to disappointment." While a peace deal and reopening of Hormuz could initially trigger a surge in supply from tankers already loaded and awaiting departure, a full normalization would likely take months due to disrupted logistics, rerouted shipping flows and depleted inventories, market watchers say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0349 ET - Gold prices fall after minutes from the Federal Reserve revealed that the majority of officials would be open to possible interest-rate increases if the Iran war continued to fuel inflation. Futures in New York are down 0.4% to $4,517.20 a troy ounce. "Gold has traded within a relatively narrow range in recent weeks and remains down around 14% since the war began in late February," analysts at MUFG say. Still, further losses were limited by renewed optimism over a potential U.S.-Iran deal after President Trump said the two sides were in the final stages of negotiations. Market watchers said gold would likely need to see a significant easing in oil-driven inflation pressures or fresh evidence that slowing growth risks are beginning to outweigh inflation concerns to regain upward momentum. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0342 ET - Shell will get an earnings boost from stronger commodity prices through 2028, which means EPS expectations will move higher, Baader's Frederic Lorec writes. This will partially offset softer downstream margins and elevated cash capital expenditure of $20.9 billion, he says. Baader increases its 2026 EPS expectation by 28% to $4.28, and its 2027 view by 22% to $4.51. Baader expects adjusted net profit holding around $20 billion through 2027, before easing to $18.6 billion in 2028 as Brent prices move lower to around $75 a barrel. Lorec increases Shell's target price to 4,269 pence from 3,852 pence. Shares trade flat at 3,225.50 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0309 ET - Comex gold futures are likely to consolidate, based on the daily chart, RHB Retail Research's Joseph Chai says in a research report. The latest bullish candlestick pattern shows that selling pressure has tapered while immediate support remains firm, the analyst notes. The futures will probably move sideways above support at $4,500 per ounce for consolidation, Chai says. However, the relative strength index is hovering below the 50% threshold, which indicates bullish momentum is weak and the commodity is unlikely to cross above the 20-day simple moving average, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.5% lower at $4,520.64 per ounce. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2326 ET - Gold is likely caught in broad-range trading phase between $4,171 and $4,889 an ounce, based on charts, says Quek Ser Leang of UOB's global economics and markets research in a report. On the downside, gold could continue to edge lower, but based on current momentum, any decline is unlikely to threaten key weekly support at $4,171 an ounce, the senior technical strategist says. On the upside, resistance is at the weekly Ichimoku cloud's top, which is currently at $4,758 an ounce. A break above this level isn't ruled out, but given that weekly moving average convergence divergence is deep in negative territory, any advance is unlikely to challenge $4,889 an ounce, the strategist adds. Spot gold is 0.1% lower at $4,538.52 an ounce. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2313 ET - Iron ore is lower in early Asian trading. The supply and demand of iron ore look balanced for now, Nanhua Futures analysts say in a note. However, the upside is limited as valuations are relatively high, they add. Market sentiment for commodities remains soft overall, weighed by limited prospects of policy easing in China in the near term, they note. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 0.2% at 796.5 yuan a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
2243 ET - Palm oil falls in Asian trading, weighed by lower soybean oil prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, PhillipCapital says in a note. Weaker export data is also dragging palm oil prices, it says. Malaysia's palm oil exports for May 1-20 are estimated to have fallen 20.5% from the same period last month, according to cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia. PhillipCapital sees support at 4,350 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,680 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for August delivery is down 36 ringgit at 4,547 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 21, 2026 09:15 ET (13:15 GMT)
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