The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1619 ET - Mexico's revised GDP numbers are expected to show a broad-based contraction in the first-quarter economic activity. Gross domestic product is seen falling 0.8% seasonally adjusted from the previous quarter, according to analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal, unchanged from statistics institute Inegi's preliminary reading at the end of April. Output is expected to be up 0.1% unadjusted from the year-earlier quarter, also unchanged from the advance estimate. Inegi is due to report revised GDP numbers on Friday. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1618 ET - Inflation in Mexico likely slowed in the first half of May with help from lower electricity rates as seasonal subsidies took effect in numerous cities. The consumer price index is expected to have fallen 0.14% in the first half of the month, according to a WSJ survey of analysts. That would lower the 12-month inflation rate to 4.13% from 4.37% in the second half of April. Core CPI is seen rising 0.15% in the two-week period, leaving the annual rate practically unchanged at 4.25%. National statistics institute Inegi is scheduled to report mid-May inflation on Friday. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1547 ET - Treasury yields rise amid reports of progress in U.S.-Iran talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Crude prices fall around 2% and the WSJ Dollar Index is flat. Layoffs remain contained in the U.S. while housing markets slow less than forecast and mortgage rates rise. Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly advances, while Services PMI slips. April Conference Board leading indicators and May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index are forecast to decline, in a WSJ consensus. Bond markets close early tomorrow, at 2 p.m. ET, and won't open Monday for Memorial Day. The 10-year rises 0.015 percentage point to 4.584% while the two-year rises 0.049 p.p. to 4.086%, both off early highs. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1422 ET - Incoming Fed Chair Warsh is unlikely to promote any significant changes in his first meeting, next month, WisdomTree's Kevin Flanagan says. He thinks Warsh isn't as dovish as markets suppose and his proposed reduction of the Fed's balance sheet amounts to monetary tightening. The new Chair will also meet a board unlikely to support easing. "He is coming into a scenario, even if you remove the Middle East, where the economic and inflation backdrop does not argue for a rate cut," Flanagan says. "At a minimum, it just argues for policy to stay on hold... Investors who feel Warsh coming in was going to be a rubber stamp for a rate cut will be disappointed." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1418 ET - AI's impact on inflation is twofold. In the short run, massive capital expenditure on infrastructure and resources will push up prices and inflation, while efficiency gains will only provide disinflationary relief much later, WisdomTree's Kevin Flanagan says. "To get where we want to go could have some inflation undertones," he says. "But once we get to where we want to go, then it becomes, I think, a disinflationary development." It's a challenge for bond investors, because they will need to get through the initial phase, marked by high uncertainty, "before we can begin to say, hey, you should base your fixed income strategy on this." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1417 ET - The recent bonds selloff sent yields above more than one-year-old ceilings, so what's next? WisdomTree's Kevin Flanagan says they could go higher. "The next level would be about 4.8%, which is where [the 10-year benchmark] hit in January of 2025." He warns that structural adjustments, including persistent inflation and increased Treasurys issuance, mean that a return to low pre-war baselines is unlikely. "I still think we're in a scenario where the market sentiment is to sell into strength." The 10-year yield is at 4.558%, down from 4.627% earlier. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1334 ET - U.S. pending home sales fell 1.1% from a week earlier during the week ending May 17, Redfin says. That's the first decline since early April. Pending sales are still at their second-highest level since September 2022. Mortgage-purchase applications declined 4% week over week. Homebuying demand fell because mortgage rates increased. The daily average mortgage rate hit 6.75% this week, the highest level since July. Prices are rising, too. The median asking price increased 1.4% year over year. On the selling side, new listings declined 0.2% week over week. That marks the third straight week of new listings declining. This week's jump in mortgage rates may give house hunters with stable incomes another opportunity to negotiate a home's price down and get concessions from sellers, Redfin says. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
1312 ET - Home-purchase cancellations are starting to slow, Redfin says. Just over 47,000 U.S. home-sale agreements fell through in April, equal to 13.4% of homes that went under contract that month. That's down slightly from a month earlier. Contract cancellations inched down this spring as homebuyers and sellers gain a clearer sense of housing market conditions after several years of volatility. More sellers have come to terms with the fact that it's a buyer's market, and they're increasingly willing to lower prices and/or provide concessions to keep deals together. Buyers, for their part, have grown more accustomed to high housing payments, with pending home sales rising, and may be less likely to back out due to sticker shock. (chris.wack@wsj.com)
1304 ET - SpaceX's IPO filing revealed that the company is sitting on 18,712 bitcoin through 2025. That stash is the ninth-largest holding of bitcoin in the market, according to data from CoinMarketCap -- ahead of leading cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. At current value, SpaceX bitcoin reserves are worth more than $1.4 billion. Combined with the stash of 11,509 BTC owned by Tesla, Elon Musk's operations own more than 30,000 BTC -- making them the fifth-largest holder in the world, just ahead of Bitcoin Standard Treasury Co., according to CoinMarketCap. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1247 ET - Employers appear reluctant to reduce headcount, even if they are more cautious about hiring, Oxford Economics says in a report. Initial jobless claims this year are tracking below levels of the past three years, according to the report. The claims data show the job market is holding up despite months of war with Iran, as well as ongoing inflation and tariffs, Oxford Economics says. "We still can't rule out some spillover effects from the war and the spike in oil prices on to the labor market, which we have always expected would come with a lag," Oxford Economics says. (katherine.hamilton@wsj.com)
1208 ET - Privacy coin Zcash is taking a break after nearing its highest levels since November 2025 on Wednesday. Zcash is down 2.5% at$651.44, but still up over 25% for the week, according to LSEG data. Powering Zcash's rise is increased interest in cryptocurrency that can allow for private transactions in a world of quantum computing and other threats to cryptography. Zcash's zero-knowledge proofs are seen as technologically superior to Monero, which is the other cryptocurrency that focuses on protecting user privacy. "Zcash's privacy infrastructure has evolved to become more resilient and credible," says Eliézer Ndinga of 21shares. Other coins have adopted a more privacy-focused approach, including Litecoin, a cryptocurrency dating back to the early days of BTC. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1139 ET - Hyperliquid is posting a huge day, gaining 20% in the past 24 hours, according to data from Coinglass. HYPE is now trading at roughly $62, which is an all-time high for the token that corresponds with the DeFi platform of the same name. The ETFs launched by 21shares and Bitwise are attracting investors, with inflows jumping to $25.5 million yesterday. These ETFs combined posted an inflow of just $5.6 million at this time last week, according to Coinglass data. HYPE has ascended quickly, and has roughly $8.7 billion in volume traded over the last 24 hours -- making it the fourth-busiest cryptocurrency, behind stalwarts solana, ethereum, and bitcoin. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 21, 2026 16:20 ET (20:20 GMT)
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