Course of Iran War Remains Key For Euro's Outlook -- Market Talk

Dow Jones05-22 22:01

1401 GMT - The recent shift in U.S. and eurozone interest-rate expectations underscores the importance of the course of the Iran war for the euro-dollar exchange rate, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. The market is now pricing a strong chance of a U.S. rate rise by year-end in response to higher oil prices but has pared eurozone rate-rise bets due to growth concerns. A swift resolution to the conflict would support the euro as the market could price in Fed rate cuts again, Baur says. If the conflict persists, the euro could fall as it becomes clearer that the economic impact in Europe is more severe than in the U.S, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1607. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 22, 2026 10:01 ET (14:01 GMT)

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If the conflict persists, the euro could fall as it becomes clearer that the economic impact in Europe is more severe than in the U.S, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1607. 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The market is now pricing a strong chance of a U.S. rate rise by year-end in response to higher oil prices but has pared eurozone rate-rise bets due to growth concerns. A swift resolution to the conflict would support the euro as the market could price in Fed rate cuts again, Baur says. If the conflict persists, the euro could fall as it becomes clearer that the economic impact in Europe is more severe than in the U.S, he says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1607. 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