The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1543 ET - Crude futures settle lower in an up-and-down session with conflicting expectations for an agreement to end the U.S.-Iran stalemate. Prices spiked early on a report that Iran insists on keeping its enriched uranium, but hopes for a deal were rekindled late in the session with Pakistani mediators in Tehran for meetings. Talk of an imminent deal has proven false on several occasions, sending oil prices back up, Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. "This scenario could continue to play out in the coming weeks until some framework of a deal is achieved that could, at least, provide for a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz." WTI settles down 1.9% at $96.35 a barrel and Brent falls 2.3% to $102.58 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1542 ET - Lean hog futures settle down 1.8% to $1.0015 a pound, this even as the slaughter rates for hogs are trending lower than this time last year. Steiner Consulting Group says in a note that hog slaughters last week were 1.4% lower than this time the previous year. That's supposed to extend into this week, with weekly hog slaughter expected to be off 1.5% to 2% this week, says the firm. But the slower flow of supplies doesn't seem to be affecting pork cutout prices -- with the USDA reporting lower average carcass prices at midday today as well as yesterday afternoon. Live cattle futures finish down 1.3% to $2.4995 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1533 ET - U.S. natural gas futures settle modestly higher following a slightly larger-than-expected inventory build. The EIA reported a 101 Bcf storage injection for last week, putting supplies 149 Bcf or 6.6% above the five-year average. "The heat wave that began late in the week did not drive significant increases in power burn until after the cutoff for today's report and will be reflected in next Thursday's release," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. "There appears to be significant support surrounding $3.00 per mmBtu for the prompt-month contract, which was tested and held in the minutes following the report." Nymex gas settles up 0.5% at $3.018/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1454 ET - CBOT grain futures turned lower in afternoon trading, with traders appearing to pare risk ahead of the holiday weekend. The long weekend takes place as markets across the board are on edge about a potential resolution to the U.S.-Iran conflict -- or lack thereof. Heavy rainfall is being seen in parched crop-growing areas like Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, which may ease the stress seen on crops there."Large speculators are shedding net market length ahead of the long U.S. holiday weekend," says AgResource in a note. CBOT corn is down 0.8%, while soybeans fall 0.5% and wheat is down 1.9%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1415 ET - Gold futures settle higher for the second consecutive day. Investors are watching Treasury yields, with elevated yields a pressure point for precious metals. How the peace process fares over the long weekend could determine how yields move next. "A U.S. attack on Iran in light of Supreme Leader's refusal to compromise on the nuclear issue would likely rally the 10-year yield towards the 5.000% line in the sand, with the reverse correlation drilling gold through the 200 day moving average," says Robert Yawger of Mizuho Securities USA in a note, adding that this could result in gold sliding to $4,000 a troy ounce for the first time since November 2025. Front-month gold closes up 0.2% to $4,539.80/oz. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1340 ET - The longer the U.S.-Iran war drags on, and the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, makes a return to normalcy in energy that much more complicated. While oil prices are expected to draw back considerably if a peace deal is made, the process of clearing the logjam of ships attempting to enter and leave the Strait looks to be extensive, says David Oxley of Capital Economics in a note. "At best, it could take weeks for ships to reposition themselves," says Oxley. "At worst, a lack of shipping could be a constraining factor for months and delay production timetables." The movement of oil prices has been a key factor dictating how other commodities move, which is why many agricultural futures and metal futures have added war premium. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1125 ET - CBOT corn futures are up 0.3% after spending much of the opening hours oscillating between either side of unchanged. Strong export demand reported by the USDA this morning for corn is teaming with questions about if the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is coming within the next month -- or if China's $17B deal for American agriculture will result in booming demand at a time where inputs and logistics are still squeezed. "China securing additional ag products has tipped the scales with U.S. farmers enjoying expanded profitability," says Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group in a note. "Demand-led bull markets are ahead." (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1112 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories post their first triple-digit increase in four weeks, rising slightly more than expected and increasing the surplus over the five-year average. Natural gas in underground storage was up by 101 billion cubic feet at 2,391 Bcf in the week ended May 15, the EIA reports. That put stocks 149 Bcf above the 2021-2025 average, compared with a surplus of 140 Bcf the week before. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey had predicted a 95 Bcf injection. Nymex natural gas futures hold their ground following the report, rising 0.3% at $3.012/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1027 ET - The Brazilian harvest is forecast to come in strong this year, says Brazilian crop agency Conab in a note. The harvest is estimated to be 18% higher at 66.7 million bags, which would be a record for Brazil. Total acreage cultivated for coffee was 2.34 million hectares this year, Conab adds, which is up 3.9% from the prior year. Coffee futures on the Intercontinental Exchange are up 1% to $2.71 a pound, according to data from FactSet. But coffee has been declining since the start of 2026, falling 28% from a year-high of $3.75 a pound January 6. Of the total bags expected to be harvested, arabica coffee is seen totaling 45.8 million bags, Conab says. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1025 ET - Livestock futures are down in early trading on the CME, with lean hog futures down 0.8% and live cattle down 0.4%. Meanwhile, crude oil futures are trending higher, with light crude oil up 4% to over $102 a barrel. Higher oil prices have been linked to pressure on cattle futures, in that beef is expensive and higher gas prices may force shoppers to choose other cheaper cuts of meat. But the pressure on beef doesn't seem to be benefiting pork, as pork cutout prices continue to trend weaker as well. Average carcass cutouts fell by $1.41 per cwt yesterday, to $95.47 per cwt, according to USDA data. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1021 ET - Canada as a net oil exporter typically benefits from higher crude prices, though research by Scotiabank indicates that may have limits. Modelling director Olivier Gervais says higher oil prices remain a net positive for activity in Canada at current levels, but the macro payoff diminishes as prices rise. He finds evidence that once oil prices move into the US$120-US$130 range they no longer provide a statistically meaningful boost to Canadian activity. Gervais cautions against seeing this as a precise tipping point, but instead considers it an indicative zone where the positive relationship becomes markedly less clear. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1009 ET - Grain traders were hopeful earlier this week that the White House's announcement of new buying of agriculture by the Chinese would be wind in the sails of CBOT grain futures, but that enthusiasm seems to be flagging as rainfall arrives for the U.S. farmers that need it -- essentially cancelling out any sort of tighter supply picture in grains, says ADM Investor Services. "Prospects for Chinese buying for now are being more than offset by favorable U.S. weather," says analysts for the firm in a note. Grain futures are mixed in early trading, with most-active corn down 0.1%, soybeans up 0.1%, and wheat down 0.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 21, 2026 16:15 ET (20:15 GMT)
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