The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1340 ET - The longer the U.S.-Iran war drags on, and the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, makes a return to normalcy in energy that much more complicated. While oil prices are expected to draw back considerably if a peace deal is made, the process of clearing the logjam of ships attempting to enter and leave the Strait looks to be extensive, says David Oxley of Capital Economics in a note. "At best, it could take weeks for ships to reposition themselves," says Oxley. "At worst, a lack of shipping could be a constraining factor for months and delay production timetables." The movement of oil prices has been a key factor dictating how other commodities move, which is why many agricultural futures and metal futures have added war premium. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1222 ET - A free trade agreement between the U.K. and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, a bloc which includes Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., is a win-win for both sides, says Junaid Ansari of Kuwait-based Kamco Invest. It will help strengthen trade and business ties while opening doors in technology, life sciences, pharma, logistic, AI and financial services, he notes. It could help the Gulf economies offset U.S. tariff pressure and the Middle East war-related disruptions, Ansari says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
1112 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories post their first triple-digit increase in four weeks, rising slightly more than expected and increasing the surplus over the five-year average. Natural gas in underground storage was up by 101 billion cubic feet at 2,391 Bcf in the week ended May 15, the EIA reports. That put stocks 149 Bcf above the 2021-2025 average, compared with a surplus of 140 Bcf the week before. Analysts in a Wall Street Journal survey had predicted a 95 Bcf injection. Nymex natural gas futures hold their ground following the report, rising 0.3% at $3.012/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1021 ET - Canada as a net oil exporter typically benefits from higher crude prices, though research by Scotiabank indicates that may have limits. Modelling director Olivier Gervais says higher oil prices remain a net positive for activity in Canada at current levels, but the macro payoff diminishes as prices rise. He finds evidence that once oil prices move into the US$120-US$130 range they no longer provide a statistically meaningful boost to Canadian activity. Gervais cautions against seeing this as a precise tipping point, but instead considers it an indicative zone where the positive relationship becomes markedly less clear. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1006 ET - Walmart CFO John David Rainey says on an analyst call that customers are buying less gas. "We see that in the most recent period, the number of gallons that customers fill up with when they come to our fuel stations fell below 10 for the first time since 2022. That's an indication of stress," he says. The strength of the consumer splits along income lines with high-income consumers still spending with confidence and the lower-income consumer "more budget conscious and perhaps navigating financial distress," Rainey says. (nicholas.miller@wsj.com)
1001 ET - Higher fuel prices are imposing significant costs on Walmart and the company's chief financial officer says that retail price inflation could rise for the rest of the year if those costs remain elevated. "These are real impacts to cost of goods sold for us and our suppliers," says John David Rainey. In 1Q, the company absorbed $175 million, or about 250 basis points of operating income growth, from higher than expected fuel costs. The inflation could particularly impact food categories, which are heavily dependent on fertilizer supply that is being hurt by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Rainey says. (nicholas.miller@wsj.com)
0956 ET - Eurozone purchasing managers surveys point to a weak second quarter for the economy, Commerzbank's Vincent Stamer says in a note. The composite PMI fell to 47.5 in May from 48.8, a third-straight decline, driven lower by the conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, input prices for companies continue to rise. "This presents a dilemma for the European Central Bank: to curb inflation, the bank would have to raise key interest rates, which would further weigh on the economy," he says. Stamer therefore expects only a quarter-point interest-rate hike by the central bank in June. However, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into the second half of the year, the ECB would likely raise rates again, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0923 ET--The public utility company Ameren is positioned to be one of the firms to benefit from the massive artificial-intelligence data center buildout, JPMorgan analysts write in a note, upgrading the stock to overweight from neutral. The regulatory environment in Missouri, where Ameren is based, is steady and constructive for data centers, without an impending gubernatorial election to generate political risk. "With data center datapoints piling up, we have higher confidence in the company's growth outlook and see the potential for the EPS CAGR to inflect higher," they write. "We find AEE a compelling story that should command a top tier premium amidst positive catalyst execution and lack of political/regulatory downside risk that afflict many peers." (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
0859 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are holding around the key $3 mark ahead of the EIA's weekly inventory report due at 10:30 a.m. ET. Analysts in a WSJ survey predict an injection of 95 Bcf, fractionally larger than the 92 Bcf five-year average for the week. It would put stocks 143 Bcf or 6.4% above the average. "A surprise in either direction could spark an outsized move," ahead of the Memorial Day weekend and next week's June options and contract expiry, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Nymex natural gas is up 0.3% at $3.012/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0855 ET - Crude futures turn higher as a report that Iran insists on keeping its enriched uranium lowers expectations for a deal to be reached with the U.S. A Reuters report that Iran's supreme leader says the uranium must stay in Iran "effectively kills the idea that we are anywhere near a peace plan that will end this mess," Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. The turnaround follows price declines after President Trump said the negotiations were in the final stages. WTI is up 2.4% at $100.62 a barrel, and Brent gains 1.8% to $106.91 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0810 ET - Pressure is building on long-dated global bonds as markets come to terms with a more persistent and entrenched energy supply shock, Federated Hermes' Mitch Reznick says in a note. "What initially appeared to be a shift in inflation expectations is now feeding directly into realised inflation, reinforcing the view that central banks will need to keep policy tighter for longer to restore price stability," the head of fixed income says. Federated Hermes sees an unusually strong linkage between oil prices and global rates, reflecting how broad-based and borderless this shock has become, he says. "The result is a coordinated move higher in yields, with some jurisdictions--notably the U.K. and Japan--feeling the strain more acutely." (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0737 ET - The euro could come under pressure if the European Central Bank raises interest rates less than markets anticipate, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. Weak eurozone purchasing managers' data Thursday cast doubts on whether the ECB needs to raise rates as much as expected, she says. Market pricing implies at least two 25 basis-point rate rises by December, LSEG data show. There is a risk of just one rate rise this year, Foley says. The euro falls 0.2% to $1.1610. Rabobank expects the euro to reach $1.15 in coming weeks if there is no U.S.-Iran peace deal. Even with a deal, Rabobank thinks slower eurozone growth would prevent the euro from reaching $1.20 this year. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 21, 2026 13:40 ET (17:40 GMT)
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