The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1015 GMT - The dollar is showing resistance to any headlines signalling the prospect of a de-escalation in the Iran war, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. "As President Trump claims negotiations are in their final stages, the FX market is trading a de-escalation with much more cautiousness than two weeks ago." Expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates also make it harder to bet against the dollar, he says. The dollar's contained reaction to Trump's comments leaves more scope for weakness if a deal is agreed. However, it also confirms thinner market patience and another period of stalled negotiations could take the DXY dollar index above 99.50 even without fresh military action, he says. The DXY trades up slightly at 99.151. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
1006 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar rise slightly in European trade. "Sentiment remained cautious in the face of the limited progress in the Middle East," says DHF Capital S.A's Bas Kooijman in a note. In the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes, policymakers expressed growing concern that elevated oil prices could sustain inflationary pressures, he says. "As a result, Treasury yields could remain elevated, supporting the dollar." The two-year yield is up 2.2 basis points at 4.059%, while the 10-year yield rises 0.6 basis points to 4.575%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index edges up marginally to 99.136. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0949 GMT - Shares of two Chinese shipping container firms fell after they issued statements in response to charges by the U.S. Justice Department. China International Marine Containers fell 10% in Shenzhen and Singamas Container Holdings lost 14%. The DOJ said Tuesday that it indicted four shipping container manufacturers, including CIMC and Singamas, alleging that they conspired to restrict the output and fix prices of shipping containers for at least four years. The firms added that business operations remain unaffected and will respond to the charges in due course. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0934 GMT - Asia's nontech exports remain at risk if geopolitical tensions escalate, Morgan Stanley says in a research note. In that scenario, oil prices could exceed $150 a barrel and remain elevated for several months, which would trigger a global recession, MS says. Pricing could also remain elevated for other materials critical to the supply chain, including petrochemicals, fertilizers, plastics and inputs for semiconductor manufacturing, MS says. "While this will create a dent in the near-term growth momentum, we think that the structural drivers to the capital expenditure and industrial cycle will mean that nontech exports will stage a quick and strong rebound from the trough," MS says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0923 GMT - Oil prices slip in volatile trade, with Brent crude falling 0.2% to $104.76 a barrel and WTI futures down 0.1% to $98.11 a barrel. Both benchmarks were up more than 1% earlier in the session. "The oil market remains overly sensitive to Iran-related headlines, with participants continuing to pin considerable hope on reports that talks between the U.S. and Iran are progressing," analysts at ING say. "We've been in this situation multiple times before, which ultimately led to disappointment." While a peace deal and reopening of Hormuz could initially trigger a surge in supply from tankers already loaded and awaiting departure, a full normalization would likely take months due to disrupted logistics, rerouted shipping flows and depleted inventories, market watchers say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0908 GMT - Sterling edges lower against the dollar after data showed U.K. private sector business activity swung into a contraction in May. The composite purchasing managers' index fell to a 13-month low of 48.5 in May from 52.6 in April, according to S&P's flash estimate. A level below 50 signals a contraction while a level above that indicates growth. "The U.K. economy is facing a perfect storm, as rising political uncertainty adds to the growing impact from the war in the Middle East," S&P economist Chris Williamson says in the survey. Sterling falls to $1.3430 after the data, from $1.3444 beforehand. The euro is little changed at 0.8652 pounds as eurozone PMI data earlier were also weak. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0835 GMT - Oil is likely to trade meaningfully lower later this year, as the current crisis should follow the historical pattern of a short-lived but intense price shock, Norbert Rücker of Julius Baer says. Traffic through the Hormuz Strait is picking up again, adds the head of economics and next-generation research. Over the past two weeks, several very large crude carriers, alongside smaller vessels and liquefied-natural-gas tankers, have exited the Gulf and are continuing their journey toward Asia, he notes. Although traffic remains at a fraction of preconflict levels, these flows marginally alleviate the supply shock, he adds. The world economy is also proving resilient, helped by the fact that the trade resumption has eased the logistics and refining markups, as well as fuel prices, except in the U.S. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0820 GMT - Indonesia's plans to centralize exports of key commodities through a state-owned entity carries execution risks and could hurt sovereign credit metrics if poorly implemented, S&P Global Ratings says in a note. The short timeline for implementation raises the risk of trade disruptions, potentially weighing on exports, government revenue and the balance of payments, it says. Investor sentiment and business confidence could also weaken if policymaking become less predictable, which could slow investment and trigger capital outflows. However, a higher government revenue ratio could strengthen fiscal resilience by limiting budget deficit expansion and reduce the impact of higher financing costs during periods of macro strains, S&P adds. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
0807 GMT - The oil market appears to be rebalancing, with prices relatively contained despite the disruption stemming from the Middle East conflict, say HSBC Global Investment Research analysts in a note. This stems from a sharp pullback in Chinese buying, a surge in U.S. exports and an unusually rapid draw on inventories and strategic stocks, they say. These factors have eased immediate availability concerns, they add. Chinese crude imports could further decline in May, which could free up supplies and cap prices, they add. However, they also flag that U.S. inventories are quickly declining, and could reach the bottom of their five-year range by late June or July. Front-month WTI crude-oil futures rise 0.8% to $99.02 a barrel; front-month Brent adds 0.6% to $105.67 a barrel.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0742 GMT - Shell will get an earnings boost from stronger commodity prices through 2028, which means EPS expectations will move higher, Baader's Frederic Lorec writes. This will partially offset softer downstream margins and elevated cash capital expenditure of $20.9 billion, he says. Baader increases its 2026 EPS expectation by 28% to $4.28, and its 2027 view by 22% to $4.51. Baader expects adjusted net profit holding around $20 billion through 2027, before easing to $18.6 billion in 2028 as Brent prices move lower to around $75 a barrel. Lorec increases Shell's target price to 4,269 pence from 3,852 pence. Shares trade flat at 3,225.50 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0736 GMT - Oil prices rebound after settling more than 5.5% lower in the previous session, as traders closely watch developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations. In early European trading, Brent is up 1.4% to $106.49 a barrel, while WTI futures are up 1.5% to $99.80 a barrel. President Trump said the U.S. was in the final stages of negotiations with Tehran, but also that Tehran might get "another big hit" if a deal wasn't reached. Meanwhile, the latest EIA data pointed to a tightening U.S. market on the back of stronger oil exports. "Markets continue to swing on conflicting headlines," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. "Declining U.S. crude inventories and continued uncertainty over Iran's response to the latest US proposal are keeping oil markets volatile." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0703 GMT - Bitcoin edges lower as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict remains heightened and as traders bet on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. President Trump said Wednesday that negotiations with Iran are in the "final stages" but warned the US will have to get "a little bit nasty" if no deal is reached. Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran remains open to a diplomatic solution but forcing the country to surrender through coercion is "nothing but an illusion." The Fed's latest meeting minutes on Wednesday showed most policymakers anticipate lifting rates if inflation stays elevated. Bitcoin falls 0.2% to $77,556, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 21, 2026 06:15 ET (10:15 GMT)
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