MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Germany GDP, GfK consumer climate survey, ifo Business Climate Index; U.K. retail sales, public sector finances; France Monthly Business Survey; trading update for Richemont
Opening Call:
European stock futures were higher, after Asia stocks rose. U.S. Treasurys were flat, the dollar was flat. Gold fell and oil rose.
Equities:
European futures were higher after the Dow rose to its first record close in more than three months, pushed ahead by renewed hopes of peace progress in the Middle East.
News reports about plans to resolve the nearly three-month old war between the U.S. and Iran helped provide a better tone, with the mood toward tech more positive in Asia, where South Korean and Japanese stocks surged on renewed AI enthusiasm.
"The U.S. stock market looks indestructable.
Nothing--not war, inflation, higher interest rates, economic slowdown, doubts about earnings or technologies, questionable leadership, not damage to institutions--can dent it," said global market analyst Satyajit Das.
But there are reasons to be skeptical about the rally's sustainability, he added. For one, investors are still assuming a short Iran war because of TACO(Trump always chickens out)--ignoring the risk of NACHO (Not a chance Hormuz opens), he said.
Forex:
The U.S. dollar held steady amid higher Treasury yields that typically enhance the appeal of dollar-denominated fixed-income assets.
"Elevated U.S. yields and hawkish Fed repricing are likely to continue weighing on regional FX in the near term," MUFG Bank's Lloyd Chan said.
Although Brent crude oil prices have declined, they remain above $100 per barrel, "keeping pressure on oil import bills and sustaining inflation risks" in Asia, the senior currency analyst said.
Bonds:
The markets are caught between U.S.-Iran deal hopes and long weekend risks, said OCBC Group Research's Christopher Wong.
"Softer oil and a modest pullback in UST yields helped ease the defensive tone, but investors remain wary of overpricing U.S.-Iran deal optimism before there is confirmation," said the foreign-exchange strategist.
With the U.S. and the U.K. both having holidays on Monday, there is also "less appetite to add risk aggressively into the long weekend," Wong said. "The near-term setup is therefore less about a decisive directional break and more about positioning risk around the next headline."
Energy:
Oil prices turned higher. The rapid depletion of global crude stocks in focus--but there's no relief in sight just yet.
Physical supplies of oil are continuing to tighten, with exports through the Strait of Hormuz 95% below normal levels, said analysts at Goldman Sachs led by senior commodities strategist Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby.
The Goldman team estimated that total oil loadings from Iran have fallen to close to zero across the past seven days, down from an average of 2.5 million barrels per day last year.
Metals:
Gold edged lower amid mixed sentiment. "Risk has been on and off," said NAB's Ken Crompton in commentary.
The latest 14-point framework from the U.S. was reported by Iranian media as having "narrowed the gap," and Secretary of State Rubio told the Financial Times that there were some "good signs," the head of Rates Strategy said.
However, "optimism quickly unraveled as [the] Iranian Supreme Leader issued a directive: near-weapons-grade uranium must not be sent abroad," Crompton added.
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Copper prices rose on strong fundamentals. Recent earnings updates from mining companies suggested that supply additions this year are likely to fall short of expectations, leaving the tightness in the copper concentrate market unresolved, Jinrui Futures analysts wrote.
Looking ahead, slower-than-expected recovery in copper mine supply continued to underpin prices, likely keeping LME copper prices elevated in the near term, they said.
Concerns over energy supply disruptions in Peru have further fueled expectations of reduced copper supply, they added.
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Iron ore was higher, as the supply-demand dynamic remains largely unchanged, according to Baocheng Futures analysts in a research note.
Steel mills are actively maintaining production and rigid demand remains robust, providing solid support for iron ore prices, they noted.
However, prices are unlikely to rise further given the high valuation, they noted.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Oil prices turn lower on hopes for Iran deal; crude supplies are declining as travel season starts Memorial Day weekend
Oil prices turned lower Thursday, with the rapid depletion of global crude stocks in focus - but there's no relief in sight just yet.
Physical supplies of oil are continuing to tighten, with exports through the Strait of Hormuz 95% below normal levels, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs led by senior commodities strategist Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby.
Iran Moved Billions Through Binance to Fund Regime-Continuing Into This Month
As Iran braced for conflict with the U.S., a key regime financier built a secret payment network to keep money flowing to its military forces. At its core was Binance.
Until as recently as December, the network, run by Babak Zanjani, an Iranian who is a self-described "antisanction" operator, made $850 million in transactions over two years on the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, mostly on a single trading account, internal Binance compliance reports show.
Estee Lauder Ends Acquisition Talks With Spain's Puig
Estee Lauder and Puig Brands said they have terminated discussions of a potential business combination, ending months of speculation that the two would merge and create one of the world's largest beauty companies.
Estee Lauder said Thursday that it instead remains focused on its ongoing turnaround, which is well under way and delivering positive results.
IMAX Is Exploring a Sale
IMAX is exploring a sale and has approached entertainment companies as potential buyers, according to people familiar with the situation.
The sale process is in early stages and may not result in a deal, the people said.
Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Friday
04:30/NED: Apr House Price Index
06:00/DEN: May Business tendency survey
06:00/UK: Apr Public sector finances
06:00/GER: 1Q GDP - Detailed breakdown
06:00/UK: Apr Retail sales
06:00/DEN: Apr Retail Sales Index
06:00/GER: Jun GfK consumer climate survey
06:45/FRA: May Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries)
07:00/TUR: Apr Foreign Trade
08:00/ICE: Apr Harmonized CPI
08:00/GER: May ifo Business Climate Index
08:00/POL: Apr Agricultural prices
08:00/ICE: Apr PPI
10:00/FRA: Mar OECD Harmonised Unemployment Rates
10:00/IRL: Apr WPI
13:00/BEL: May Business Confidence Survey
15:59/GRE: Mar Balance of Payments
15:59/UKR: Apr PPI
17:59/POR: Mar ICSG Copper Report
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 22, 2026 00:02 ET (04:02 GMT)
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