North American Morning Briefing: Oil Rises After Fresh Attacks on Iran

Dow Jones05-26 18:01

OPENING CALL

Stock futures pared earlier gains but remained higher Tuesday even after the U.S. conducted a fresh round of strikes in Iran .

Futures for the Nasdaq were up nearly 1%, with chip makers Micron and Nvidia leading the charge.

Brent crude was rising again , though held under $100, following Monday's attacks in southern Iran that American military officials described as defensive.

Reports of an imminent U.S.-Iran peace agreement had lifted sentiment over the long weekend.

Hopes of a deal and a slew of stellar quarterly earnings reports have helped power the market higher in recent weeks.

But Montis Financial said that optimism was "misguided."

"The S&P 500 is still riding a wave of euphoria from a blowout Q1 earnings season, but with earnings season over for the next couple of months, the likelihood of a summer selloff is high."

On the data front, this week offers a fresh look at inflationary pressures from the war, with the release of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge Thursday.

Investors see a nearly 60% chance of a Fed rate hike by the end of this year, according to CME data.

Stocks to Watch

Dell Technologies rose more than 4% premarket. Analysts are expecting an earnings beat when the company reports results Thursday.

Ferrari unveiled its first-ever EV on Sunday, priced at $640,000 and designed in partnership with Apple alumnus Jony Ive. Its Milan-listed shares slumped.

SoftBank Group jumped 11% in Tokyo. The conglomerate has benefited from rising AI enthusiasm, thanks to its stakes in firms including OpenAI and Arm.

Watch For:

U.S. S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index for March; U.S. Consumer Confidence for May

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- Delta's Flight Cancellations Have Mounted, and It's Staffing Up to Improve

- For Wall Street's Private Investments, In-House Insurers Are the Go-To Buyer

- Trump Thinks Bigger on Mideast as Iran Framework Brings Criticism

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar edged lower against a basket of currencies.

Investors retained some optimism about progress toward a U.S.-Iran peace deal that could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, they are wary after the U.S. attacks in southern Iran. The dollar could turn higher if negotiations stall .

"It has felt for some time that the move towards peace has been three steps forward and one or two back," Deutsche Bank said.

TD Securities maintained a negative view on the dollar for the year.

"We are not convinced it's time to drop the bearish U.S. dollar thesis for 2026 yet."

ING said growing prospects of the Fed raising interest rates should lend support to the dollar.

Bonds:

Treasury yields fell following Monday's U.S. holiday, on prospects of a U.S.-Iran peace deal even as uncertainties remained.

Yields were down further on the short end than on the long end, according to Tradeweb data.

Energy:

Oil prices gained as renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran added to uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Prices had fallen sharply in the previous session on signs that the two sides were moving closer to an agreement.

Metals:

Gold prices rose despite a rebound in oil prices following fresh U.S. attacks on Iran and persistent concerns over inflation and higher-for-longer interest rates.

Elevated crude oil prices risked fueling inflation and reinforcing expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer.

   TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES 

Huawei Says It Has Workaround to Match Leading Chips

SHANGHAI-Huawei Technologies said it has developed a workaround that will allow it to make chips on par with leading products manufactured by Intel and other top global companies by 2031, the latest effort by the Chinese company to overcome U.S. semiconductor technology barriers.

Ferrari Launches $640,000, Jony Ive-Designed, Glass-Clad Electric Speedster

An electric vehicle big on glass, light and space: This isn't your father's Ferrari.

On Sunday, Europe's most valuable automaker took the wraps off its first-ever model without an internal combustion engine.

Meet Mark Zuckerberg's Right-Hand Man Who's Unleashing AI at Meta

Tensions were running high at Meta Platforms.

For weeks, rumors circulated that the company was planning a large layoff as it poured tens of billions of dollars into artificial intelligence. Then employees were told their keystrokes and mouse clicks would be recorded to help train AI agents to use computers.

SpaceX Launches 400-Foot-Tall Rocket That Will Help Define Its Future

SpaceX blasted off an upgraded version of its Starship rocket, a vehicle that has posed tough challenges during a costly development campaign.

The company shot off the roughly 400-foot-tall rocket from a new launchpad at its Starbase facility in southern Texas just after 6:30 p.m. Eastern time Friday.

Oil Edges Higher, U.S. Futures Pare Gains as U.S.-Iran Tensions Rise

Oil prices pushed higher and U.S. stock futures pared some gains as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions dented peace deal optimism.

U.S. futures hung on to gains after rallying over the long weekend on hopes that a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz was close. Sentiment soured Tuesday after the U.S. sank two Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps ships in what American military officials said were defensive attacks. Iran fired missiles at U.S. planes in response, before the U.S. launched attacks on Iranian missile launchers.

U.S. Needs $2T for Its 'Made in America' Push. That Might Be the Easy Part.

Revitalizing U.S. manufacturing and bringing home critical supply chains is a priority for the Trump administration. But the U.S. needs at least $2 trillion for such a task, and that's just the start, according to a new report from McKinsey Global Institute.

The U.S. has taken steps to improve its access to critical goods and to increase production of them at home. The report, however, highlights the vast amount of not only capital, but also skilled workers and infrastructure still needed to reduce U.S. dependence on imports for such products. In other words, it's no quick fix.

The Risk Premium for Holding Stocks Over Bonds Is Vanishing

Investors are piling into stocks at a feverish pace. But by one measure, equities look as unattractive as they did after the dot-com bubble burst.

That metric is the equity risk premium, often defined as the gap between the S&P 500's earnings yield-the profit companies generate relative to stock valuations, expressed as a percentage-and that of the 10-year Treasury note. In recent weeks, it has nearly disappeared and is hovering among its lowest levels since the start of the new millennium.

China's Crude Import Slowdown Eases Asia Supply Strain From Gulf Shock

China's sharp drop in crude imports is freeing up supplies for the rest of Asia, helping refiners secure more cargoes and preventing a deeper regional shortage at a time when supplies from the Persian Gulf remain constrained.

"China took its foot off the gas on buying oil," Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk at Kpler, said. "When they stop importing, it allows the rest of the market to breathe."

Iran Talks Bog Down Over Nuclear Program and Sanctions Relief

Progress toward a deal to end the war with Iran slowed Monday as the two sides dug in over references to the country's nuclear program and financial relief for Tehran, mediators said.

The slowdown followed a weekend that began with President Trump and other administration officials saying a deal was close and ended with Trump saying he wouldn't rush to conclude an agreement that wasn't right.

The Socialist Banker Venezuela Hired to Fix Its Finances and Bring Back Investors

The French investment banker Matthieu Pigasse arrived at the private screening of Melania Trump's documentary at the White House on the cusp of winning one of the biggest deals of his career.

A supporter of the Socialist Party in France and critic of the Israeli government, the Centerview banker was an unusual guest at the exclusive Trump event, featuring the president, Mike Tyson, Queen Rania of Jordan and tech executives such as Apple's Tim Cook.

Write to gareth.mcpherson@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

Nothing major scheduled

Economic Indicators $(ET)$:

Nothing major scheduled

Stocks to Watch:

Sabio 1Q Adj EBITDA Loss $3.4M; 1Q Gross Margin 53%; 1Q Adj EBITDA Misses Estimates

Silvercorp Metals Files Listing Application With Hong Kong Stock Exchange; Application in Connection With Proposed Triple Primary Listing of Common Shares on Hong Kong's Main Board, Global Offering

Expected Major Events for Tuesday

05:00/JPN: Mar Indexes of Business Conditions - Revision

08:59/JPN: May Monthly Economic Report

10:00/FRA: 1Q OECD trade statistics release

10:00/UK: May CBI Distributive Trades Survey

12:30/US: Apr Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

13:00/US: 1Q U.S. Quarterly House Price Index

13:00/US: Mar U.S. Monthly House Price Index

13:00/US: Mar S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices

14:00/US: May Consumer Confidence Index

14:30/US: May Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

17:00/US: Apr Money Stock Measures

23:50/JPN: Apr Services Producer Price Index

All times in GMT. Powered by Onclusive and Dow Jones.

Expected Earnings for Tuesday

Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL) is expected to report $-0.07 for 2Q.

Anixa Biosciences Inc (ANIX) is expected to report $-0.09 for 2Q.

AutoZone Inc $(AZO)$ is expected to report $36.21 for 3Q.

Box Inc (BOX) is expected to report $0.10 for 1Q.

CSW Industrials Inc $(CSW)$ is expected to report $1.72 for 4Q.

Champion Homes Inc (SKY) is expected to report for 4Q.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

May 26, 2026 06:01 ET (10:01 GMT)

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