AGS WEEK AHEAD: Argentina to Reduce Taxes on Grains Exports, U.S.-Iran Peace Progress in Focus

Dow Jones05-26
 

By Joe Stonor

 

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of May 26-30 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

 

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: Headlines around development in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations will continue to determine the market backdrop for agricultural commodities.

Continued strength in the U.S. dollaris frustrating gains for agricultural commodities, Peak Trading Research analysts wrote in a note to clients. Any re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz would ease inflation concerns and likely lower U.S. Treasury yields--a typically bullish signal for agricultural commodities.

The key macroeconomic indicator investors will watch this week is the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures index. The Federal Reserve's favored inflation metric is set for release Thursday, and will provide greater detail on the outlook for U.S. interest rates.

Downward pressure on grains prices came from Argentina, after the country said it would gradually reduce taxes on grains exports, Reuters reported. The Camara de la Industria Aceitera Argentina--an industry trade body--welcomed the government's decision in a post on social media site X, saying it would boost exports.

Speculative traders sold out of a range of agricultural commodities last week, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report.

Despite the selloff, speculative traders continue to be betting on agricultural commodities outperforming broader markets--a position that leaves commodities vulnerable to a fast selloff, the Peak Trading Research analysts wrote.

Investors built bullish positions on factors including expectations of higher Brent crude oil and optimism for a U.S.-China trade deal--bets that look increasingly shaky--the analysts said.

Warm and dry conditions across the U.S. corn belt will likely accelerate planting in the region.

Wheat futures fell 0.6% in Chicago to $6.42 a bushel in European afternoon trade Tuesday, while corn futures slipped to $4.60 a bushel. Soybeans fell 0.5% to $11.91 a bushel.

 

SOFT COMMODITIES:

Cocoa continued its yo-yo trade at the beginning of this week. The commodity rose back above $4,000 a metric ton, with prices in New York rising 8.4% to $4,114 a ton. Prices had fallen last week after Ivory Coast--the world's largest cocoa producer--upped its production expectation by 10.5% for the current 2025-2026 season. However, traders' continued need to cover short positions is likely enough to push prices higher, despite strong supply figures.

"If no fundamental explanation emerges in the coming hours or days, then short covering will likely be one of the reasons," Rabobank analyst Oran van Dort said.

Coffee rose over the long weekend, adding 0.9% in Tuesday's session to $2.75 a pound. The increase comes despite positive supply news from Brazil. The country's CONAB agriculture agency raised its coffee production estimates by 18% for the 2026-2027 season, citing favorable weather conditions. The agency now expects the largest supply since its records began.

Sugar prices slipped 0.9% to 14.57 cents a pound in New York.

 

Write to Joe Stonor at josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 26, 2026 09:53 ET (13:53 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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