Gold will top $5,500 in 2027, could reach $10,000 by 2030, but silver’s upside will narrow – Rockefeller’s Moglia

Kitco05-27 20:30

(Kitco News) – Gold remains the anchor of the new commodity cycle, and the yellow metal’s secular bull market is still intact despite the recent volatility in precious metals, according to Doug Moglia...

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Moglia\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-27 20:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-27/gold-will-top-5500-2027-could-reach-10000-2030-silvers-upside-will-narrow><strong>Kitco</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Kitco News) – Gold remains the anchor of the new commodity cycle, and the yellow metal’s secular bull market is still intact despite the recent volatility in precious metals, according to Doug Moglia...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-27/gold-will-top-5500-2027-could-reach-10000-2030-silvers-upside-will-narrow\">Source 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ETF"},"translate_title":"洛克菲勒的Moglia表示，金价将在2027年突破5,500美元，到2030年可能达到10,000美元，但白银的上涨空间将收窄","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GDXU":0.9,"DBC":0.9,"DGP":0.9,"GLTR":1.5,"GOAU":1.5,"IAUM":0.9,"SGOL":0.9,"GDXY":0.9,"GBUG":1.5,"1OZmain":0.9,"SIL":1.5,"DUST":0.9,"FGDL":0.9,"OUNZ":0.9,"BAR":0.9,"ZSL":1.5,"SIVR":1.5,"JNUG":0.9,"AAAU":0.9,"AGQ":1.5,"UGL":0.9,"CEF":1.5,"GDX":0.9,"IAU":0.9,"GOLY":0.9,"SLVP":1.5,"GDXJ":0.9,"UYM":0.9,"XME":1.5,"SLV":1.5,"GLDM":0.9,"DZZ":0.9,"PHYS":0.9,"GDXD":0.9,"DULL":0.9,"PLTM":0.9,"SLVR":1.5,"SHNY":0.9,"USG":0.9,"KSLV":1.5,"SILJ":1.5,"BTGD":0.9,"GLL":0.9,"RING":0.9,"JDST":0.9,"SGDM":0.9,"IAUI":0.9,"PSLV":1.5,"BEGS":1.5,"PICK":1.5},"content_text":"(Kitco News) – Gold remains the anchor of the new commodity cycle, and the yellow metal’s secular bull market is still intact despite the recent volatility in precious metals, according to Doug Moglia, macro and market strategist at Rockefeller Global Investment Management.In a recent report, Moglia wrote that commodities have reasserted themselves as portfolio diversifiers after years of being overlooked, with structural demand now combining with constrained supply across much of the commodity complex. He said that while the broader commodity case is being driven by electrification, the AI infrastructure buildout, reshoring, energy security and years of underinvestment, precious metals have still led the pack.“Precious metals have been the leader, with gold up 92% and silver more than doubling (+152%) since the start of 2025,” Moglia said. “Gold has been supported by persistent central bank purchases which accelerated starting in 2022 following the sanction of Russian foreign exchange reserves. However, 2025 marked an inflection point in the precious metals rally, as speculative momentum flows surged alongside a sharply weaker U.S. dollar, which magnified the move into higher-beta metals such as silver and platinum.”Moglia said gold’s current bull market is comparable to other major regime shifts that occurred over the last 50 years.“We believe gold entered its third secular bull market in 2022, analogous to prior regime inflection points in the early 1970s after the Bretton Woods system collapsed, and at the turn of the millennium when gold emerged as a hedge against financial instability after the tech bubble,” Moglia said. “In this new bull cycle, the catalyst was the Russia-Ukraine war, and more specifically, the precedent set by sanctions on Russia’s foreign exchange reserves,” he said.“Global central banks realized reserves held inside the dollar-euro system can be exposed to political and legal upheaval, which fundamentally altered central bank reserve management and the way they assess sovereign autonomy,” he added. “Gold—a global macro asset with no issuer or counterparty risk—became the predominant beneficiary.”The scale of this global pivot toward gold is apparent in central bank buying,” he said.“The result was three straight years of over 1,000 tonnes of gold purchased by global central banks between 2022-2024, representing roughly 20-25% of annual global mine production,” Moglia said. “In addition, gold’s price behavior became noticeably less sensitive to its traditional cyclical drivers, including global growth expectations, changes in real interest rates, and the dollar.”Moglia said last year kicked off the next stage of the gold rally, as Western financial investors joined the official-sector bid through retail trading and ETF flows.“While 2022 introduced a new structural source of demand, our view going into 2025 was that we would see a handoff to Western financial flows via retail investor participation (e.g., ETFs),” he said. “That dynamic materialized. Central bank purchases fell to 863 metric tonnes for the full year 2025, down from the three consecutive years of 1,000+ tonnes, while global ETF holdings surged nearly 20% to over 3,000 metric tonnes in aggregate.”Moglia cautioned, however, that while this handoff supports higher prices, it also increases the odds of sharper corrections“We expect the bid from central banks to continue, with gold reserves (~31% of total) likely to come closer to parity with global dollar reserves (56%) over time,” he said. “Persistent demand should help establish both a higher floor and higher ceiling for gold prices, as central bank demand is largely price insensitive. However, the marginal driver of price action appears to be shifting toward financial investors.”“A dynamic where demand broadens towards faster, momentum-driven players introduces potential for greater near-term volatility,” he added. “We witnessed this dynamic firsthand in early 2026: the build-up of speculative leverage was one of the predeterminants of a sharp reversal in precious metals prices in late January.”But despite the added volatility, Moglia said several other key drivers continue to reinforce gold’s bullish setup.“Rising concerns about Federal Reserve independence have supported monetary metals, like gold, as a politicized central bank would undermine confidence in the U.S. financial system, and thus, the dollar,” he said. “Increasing fiscal risks and the potential for those to get worse before they get better also support higher gold exposure. Lastly, geopolitical shocks, including the recent breakout war with Iran, are raising investor interest.”Moglia wrote that the current gold bull market is still young relative to previous secular cycles.“Despite recent volatility, history suggests secular bull markets last nearly a decade—including the 1970s (August 1971 to January 1980) and early 2000s (February 2001 to September 2011), whereas the current bull cycle is in year four, with gains of ~200%,” he said, adding that the key condition required to end the bull market has not yet appeared.“The regime shift towards gold being viewed as the coveted reserve asset (at the expense of U.S. Treasuries) will need to change for price to peak, and there is no sign of that reversing today,” he said.Moglia said gold could reach levels well above the current market before the end of the decade.“We think gold will trade above $5,500 per ounce into 2027 and reach $8,000 per ounce before 2030, with overshoot potential to $10,000/oz,” he wrote.Turning to silver, Moglia said the gray metal has also benefited from the ongoing bull market, but the setup has become more tactical after the metal’s explosive 2025 rally and early-2026 reversal.“As speculation accelerated last year, the precious metals rally broadened to metals with higher beta, namely silver and platinum,” he noted. “This is a typical pattern of bull markets, where the asset that is directly tied to the macro regime shift attracts flows first (gold), followed by rotation into assets that offer greater convexity to that theme.”Moglia said silver remains best understood as a more volatile version of gold, despite its larger industrial demand base.“Silver has historically been known as ‘higher beta gold’—it has much higher volatility, a thinner liquidity profile, and different demand drivers, with over 50% driven by industrial uses,” he wrote. “By contrast, gold’s largest drivers are 45% for investment (physical and ETFs) and central bank demand, while jewelry accounts for another 40%.”Silver’s physical market also remains tight, Moglia said, with supply in a multiyear structural deficit driven by emerging technologies. “The silver market has been in structural deficit since 2021, driven by green energy demand (e.g., solar panels, EVs) and AI applications (e.g., semiconductors, power grids),” he said. “However, the deficit alone was not sufficient to drive prices higher. This is largely because, despite silver’s larger industrial share, it often trades as a monetary metal alongside gold, more influenced by sentiment, policy, currency movements, and incremental investment.”Moglia said the silver market still has strong fundamentals, but near-term price action is now being dominated by momentum. “For silver, supply response is atypical, given high inelasticity: ~70% of production is a byproduct of mining other metals, so output does not meaningfully respond to higher prices,” he said.Moglia pointed to the gold:silver ratio as further confirmation that silver’s relative upside is less compelling than it was last year.“From a comparative standpoint, the gold-to-silver ratio briefly reached 100 in May 2025 for only the second time in the past 50 years, signaling extreme cheapness for silver relative to gold,” he said. “With the latest volatility, the ratio has normalized back to its long-term average range of 50-60.”“Given this normalization, we see silver’s tactical upside versus gold as more limited,” Moglia said.Moglia suggested gold and silver miners may offer a more attractive way to capture the value of the next phase of the precious metals bull market.“Gold and silver miners offer leveraged upside with improved carry,” he said. “Embedded operational leverage, robust free cash flow generation, and improving shareholder returns via increased dividends and buybacks will help catalyze a re-rating across the entire sector.”“Lastly, we believe mining equities offer a convincing case for fundamental upside in the years ahead, anchored by our bullish long-term view on gold,” Moglia wrote. “Despite the sharp rise in bullion prices, miners have only modestly outperformed spot, as physical demand and ETF inflows have absorbed the bulk of investor flows. As a result, the ratio of gold and silver miners to precious-metal spot remains near ~0.7, in-line with the 2020 recent peak and well beneath levels observed during the 2000s cycle.”Mining equities carry operational risk, but that risk also creates leverage to higher prices, Moglia said, and that leverage is already showing up in margins and free cash flow.“Today, that leverage is becoming increasingly visible: operating margins for the gold and silver miner index are near 40%, the highest level since 2011, while the top five gold and silver miners in the index are expected to generate roughly $20 billion in free cash flow in 2025 at free-cash flow margins near 30%, well above 2020 and 2011 local peaks,” he said.And unlike bullion, which remains a negative-carry asset, miners can provide income and still retain leverage to higher gold prices.“Unlike physical gold, which has a negative carry due to storage costs and no yield, miners provide positive cash flow to shareholders while maintaining operating leverage to higher gold prices given relatively stable production costs, offering both income and downside support,” Moglia said.“Miners carry operational risks and equity-like beta—and have historically been traded tactically rather than held for long-term appreciation, contributing to elevated volatility,” he added. “However, we view periods of weakness as opportunities to build exposure, given our expectation for elevated gold prices over the intermediate to long-term.”Gold remains at the center of Rockefeller’s commodity mix, along with oil, other metals and mining equities.“We favor a diversified commodity allocation with targeted exposure to our highest-conviction areas, including industrial metals, platinum, and gold and silver mining equities,” Moglia said.” Tactical exposure to oil also serves as a durable hedge against geopolitical instability, with limited downside given current bearish positioning.\"\"Gold remains a secular anchor to portfolios.\"","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.2","shortVersion":"4.42.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2638639603","isCrawlerRequest":true}