Wall Street flips firmly bullish after gold’s late-week recovery, Main Street sentiment sours with jobs data on deck

Kitco05-29

(Kitco News) – Gold prices saw another choppy week, as safe-haven demand from renewed Middle East tensions was repeatedly offset by a stronger U.S. dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and fresh ...

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deck\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-29 21:47 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-29/wall-street-flips-firmly-bullish-after-golds-late-week-recovery-main-street><strong>Kitco</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Kitco News) – Gold prices saw another choppy week, as safe-haven demand from renewed Middle East tensions was repeatedly offset by a stronger U.S. dollar, elevated Treasury yields, and fresh ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-29/wall-street-flips-firmly-bullish-after-golds-late-week-recovery-main-street\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GOLY","symbol_name":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield 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evening and quickly pushed higher as traders reacted to lingering geopolitical uncertainty, eventually testing resistance near $4,580. The rally held through Monday but began to fade Tuesday, with gold unable to extend the move as the dollar firmed and markets looked ahead to the week’s key U.S. inflation data.The selling accelerated through midweek after renewed U.S. strikes on Iran drove oil prices higher, raised fresh inflation fears, and undermined hopes for a durable ceasefire. Gold broke below $4,500 on Wednesday, then plunged again on Thursday as traders braced for the April PCE inflation report and revised first-quarter GDP data. Spot gold ultimately set its weekly low at $4,365.85 per ounce just after midnight on Thursday.The metal began to recover late Thursday and extended its rebound Friday after reports of progress toward a potential U.S.-Iran deal helped cool oil prices and ease some of the week’s inflation concerns. Softer Treasury yields also supported the move, allowing gold to surge to its weekly high of $4,594.92 per ounce on Friday before the rally lost momentum, with spot gold closing the week at $4,539.03 per ounce.The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street feeling fresh optimism about gold’s near-term prospects, while Main Street sentiment slid into bearish territory despite gold’s late-week rebound.“Gold recovered Thursday, alongside risk assets, amid the hopes of an extended ceasefire in the Middle East,” noted Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. “The yellow metal had been sold through the 200-day moving average earlier the session for the first time in two years. It recovered and continued to do so ahead of the weekend, when it reached a three day high a little above $4543.”“An extended ceasefire is understood to be positive for gold because it removes a potential source of liquidation—oil exporters, and the need for liquidity by some oil importers,” Chandler said. “A move above the $4585 area would lift the technical tone.”“Up,” said Rich Checkan, president and COO of Asset Strategies International. “Assuming that the rumors of an impending ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran are true, gold should rise as a result. This is the pattern we have seen since February. War leads to higher oil prices, higher inflation, and potential interest rate increases. Peace will supposedly take everything in the opposite direction.”Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets, sees gold holding a strong but sensitive position.“Markets are balancing two competing signals: lower geopolitical stress around the Iran conflict and still-elevated inflation pressure,” he said. “White House comments pointing to resilient 2.6% GDP growth over the past four quarters, a 3.8% Atlanta Fed current-quarter growth estimate, oil prices down about 10% in May, and expectations that oil and gas prices will fall quickly after the conflict reduce part of gold’s emergency safe-haven premium.”“The geopolitical channel still supports gold because the same comments confirm that Iran negotiations remain tied to clear red lines, enriched uranium, and Strait of Hormuz security,” Aslam wrote. “That means gold is not trading only on inflation; it is also reacting to shipping routes, energy risk, dollar confidence, and safe-haven positioning.”He added that yesterday’s U.S. indicators kept the sentiment mixed but supportive, saying the data “supports gold’s floor because inflation remains above target and labour data is cooling, but it limits aggressive upside because monthly inflation momentum softened.\"David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, noted that gold went on quite a journey yesterday.“Early in the session it sliced through support at $4,400 to hit a four-week low under $4,370,” he said. “At that stage it looked as if that break of support would encourage further selling. But gold managed a tentative recovery, possibly helped by a modest pullback in the US dollar. This helped it to push back above $4,400 and from there it just soared.”Morrison said that the potential for a breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations also helped support the price of gold. “This move was also reinforced by US data which reduced the probability of a US rate hike this year,” he said. “Investors must now position themselves ahead of the weekend, unsure if developments will be positive or negative. But either way, gold’s rebound after breaking key support so easily must give some encouragement to the bulls.”Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at StoneX, told Kitco News that he’s still of the opinion that we have a lot higher to go in gold, and the clarity the market craves is coming soon.“I'm still very bullish on it,” he said. “There was a concern out there that central banks needed liquidity and they were selling gold, Turkey being one, and then news of Russia selling some gold here last week. I think for right [00:01:00] now, gold and silver are going to remain sideways to lower for the time being. But it's bullish how supported they are; they're trading down here to certain levels, but they're holding above those levels.Haberkorn said the key date to watch, for gold and for the broader market, is June 17.“I want to see what comes out from the first Fed meeting with Warsh, to see what kind of tone he is going to take,” he said. “Are they looking dovish or hawkish with rates? Historically, in an environment like we're in, rates should go up because of the need to combat inflation,” he said. “But we're not in a position to, when the largest expenditure on the budget line right now is servicing that debt. To raise rates would put a significant strain on everything, and while it might help in the short term with combating inflation, I think long-term it could do more damage.”“I'm wondering if Warsh is going to tiptoe around, and say as much,” he said. “I don't think he would say it in those exact words. He is Trump's pick, and last week Trump was talking in a speech, I don't remember where it was or what day it was on, but he was talking about r-rates and rates going much lower than where they're currently at. Warsh is one vote on that board, but there's going to be a reluctance here to raise rates given the debt situation and maybe they take an approach to grow out of it via some type of QE.“On the 17th, we'll get more information to see where he's at, and where the Fed is at with the new chairman.”Haberkorn said it's extremely difficult to trade with any conviction in a market that's so headline-driven. “You have headlines after headlines that contradict each other,” he said. “One minute, there's a deal reached. Thirty minutes later, no, we haven't signed anything yet. And then an hour later, you get something that contradicts that.”Haberkorn is looking to the Fed to clarify the situation for the market, and he hopes an Iran resolution will come about before then as well.“It feels like it's getting to the point where we might get closer to a deal here,” he said. “Hopefully they do get to a deal, and we can put this in the rearview mirror for metal traders and focus on where the Fed's going to be at.”“The Fed will set the tone for gold in the second half of the year.”“The biggest key to trading in precious metals right now is patience,” Haberkorn added. “Patience ahead of the Fed to see more where they're at. I'm patiently optimistic that we're going to see higher metal prices here into the second half of the year.”This week, 12 analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, with Wall Street sentiment shifting strongly back into bullish territory after gold bounced off key support levels. Nine experts, or 75%, expected to see gold prices gain ground during the week ahead, while two others, or 17% of the total, predicted a price decline. The remaining analyst, representing 8%, expected consolidation during the week ahead.Meanwhile, 39 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with Main Street investors finally relinquishing their bullish majority despite gold’s resilience. 17 retail traders, or 44%, looked for gold prices to rise next week, while another 10, or 26%, predicted the yellow metal would lose ground. The remaining 12 investors, representing 31% of the total, expected gold prices to trend sideways in the coming week.Gold and silver head into the new week with investors focused squarely on the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, as a busy calendar of economic data releases could significantly influence Fed rate expectations.Monday morning will see the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI, with analysts looking for signs that activity is either stabilizing or slipping further into contraction territory.On Tuesday, investors will turn their attention to the JOLTs Job Openings report, one of the Federal Reserve's preferred measures of labor market tightness.Wednesday morning brings the ADP Employment report, which serves as an early preview of private-sector hiring ahead of Friday's official payrolls data, followed by the ISM Services PMI.Thursday will see the release of weekly jobless claims, which have remained historically low despite concerns about slower growth, leading many economists to characterize the labor market as remarkably resilient. But the week's preeminent focus is the Friday morning release of Non-Farm Payrolls, which will deliver the most comprehensive assessment of hiring, unemployment, and wage growth, all of which are critical inputs for Federal Reserve decision-making.Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, told Kitco News that the world’s most closely watched commodities are sending conflicting signals.“The reality is that oil is pricing in an end to the war, and gold isn't,” he said. “I think we just need to wait for the war to end. Simple as that.”Button said markets are beginning to realize that new Fed chair Kevin Warsh is starting out behind the curve. “The Fed can't even get to neutral, and that's what the dissents were about,” he said. “If the central bank is on top of inflation, you'll see a lid on gold. When the market realizes the central bank is behind the curve on inflation, and that inflation could become disorderly, that will be bullish for gold.”Button said that gold has also suffered because the market’s AI excitement is soaking up all the liquidity.“There's a certain portion of market participants who chase momentum, and maybe more than ever before, and they chased gold to a record high,” he said. “These are low-attention-span investors who are going to hop onto the next big thing, and they're piling into AI now the way that they piled into gold and silver a few months ago.”“When it stops, gold will again start to soak up some of that liquidity, and then the cycle repeats.”Button said that gold prices have shown a firm floor multiple times since the Iran war began, and traders are just waiting for peace to break out for the yellow metal to resume its uptrend.“Everyone is just floating around on the surfboard waiting for the next wave,” he said. “They’re not leaving the beach.”And Button believes that wave is on the horizon.“At the risk of sounding stupid, I think the war is wrapping up, and that's a catalyst for gold,” he said. “Fool me ten times, shame on me, but I think this is the time. But by the same measure, I don't think there's a rush to buy gold until you're sure it's a real peace headline. Wait for peace and buy gold when it happens.”“The [200-day moving average] would be a great place for it to happen,” Button added. “I think that would add a stronger bounce if it comes ahead of that, you’d get the fundamental and the technical backdrop.”Lukman Otunuga, senior manager of market analysis at FXTM, said the provisional Iran-US ceasefire extension has provided global markets with a measure of relief, even though Trump hasn’t signed it. “Yet ‘safe-haven’ gold continues to edge higher along with equities despite the positive mood.”“This dynamic continues to highlight how gold remains primarily influenced by the dollar and interest rate expectations,” he wrote. “Considering how Brent is heading for its biggest monthly drop since 2020, further weakness in oil markets may cool inflation fears. If this translates to a weaker dollar, gold may receive another tailwind in the week ahead.”Otunuga said the May jobs report should provide critical insight into the health of the labor market. “A weak report could add fuel to gold’s upside, especially if this further shaves bets around higher US rates in 2026,” he noted. “Traders are currently pricing a 60% chance that the Fed hikes rates by the end of this year.”On the technical front, Otunuga pointed out that gold is pushing higher on the daily charts after rebounding from the $4450 level. A break above the 21-day SMA could signal a move toward the 50-day SMA at $4625,” he said. “Weakness below $4450 could see a decline toward the 200-day SMA at $4400.”Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, said that while rising yields, fading rate cut expectations, and improving risk appetite have weighed on gold since March, the longer-term structural tailwinds remain in place.“Central bank demand stayed strong during the first quarter, increasing 17% quarter over quarter, while concerns surrounding the U.S. fiscal deficit, persistent inflation risks, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and broader dollar diversification trends tied to policy uncertainty continue to support the longer-term case for gold,” he said. “From a technical perspective, gold has corrected sharply after reaching a record high of $5,595 in January. Since then, prices have formed a series of lower highs and are now testing a key support area defined by the rising 200-day moving average (dma) and the longer-term uptrend that began following gold’s breakout to new highs in early 2024.”Turnquist said that while momentum indicators remain bearish, there are early signs that downside pressure may be easing. “The Percent Price Oscillator (PPO) remains below the zero line and in a sell signal, but the recent higher low in momentum relative to price action has created a positive divergence, suggesting seller enthusiasm may be starting to fade,” he wrote. “We continue to respect gold’s longer-term uptrend and are monitoring for confirmation that support is holding alongside a turn higher in momentum, which would suggest the corrective phase is nearing completion. A decisive break below trend support would increase the risk of a continuation lower, with $4,099 representing the next major downside support area.”Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, expects gold prices to trend lower next week.“Gold fell below $4,400, reaching levels last seen during the prolonged March decline,” he said. “At its intraday low, the price dipped below the 200-day moving average. Buyers have repeatedly stepped in around this level over the past three years. The last week of May was no exception. Beyond purely technical factors, the precious metal was supported by positive signals from the US-Iran front and an encouraging equity market rally, which boosted risk appetite.”“The key difference between the current rally from $4,400 to levels above $4,500 and the one in March is that gold no longer appears heavily oversold, and market conditions appear much more balanced,” Kuptsikevich noted. “A break below this level could open the way to the $4,000–$4,100 range. However, if selling pressure intensifies, the decline could prove much deeper, down to $3,400.”“Although we find it hard to believe in the sustainability of the current rebound, it is still worth acknowledging that the market may get stuck near current levels, gathering strength after the downward momentum, which could take anywhere from a couple of days to a week,” he added. “An even more optimistic – and even less likely – scenario involves a bullish breakout above the 50-day moving average at $4,630, which would put an end to the recent months' downtrend and restore a long-term bullish bias.”Analysts at CPM Group issued a Sell recommendation on Thursday afternoon, with an Initial Target Price of $4,375 between May 29 and June 12, and a Stop Loss at $4,610.“Gold prices dropped to test $4,400 [on Thursday], touching $4,395.60 before rebounding to $4,545,” they wrote. “Gold and the other major precious metals have been moving in an ultra-short-term downward trend, testing short term support levels. A break below $4,400 could trigger a wave of selling taking gold to $4,100, which some technical analysts are citing.”“The June Comex futures contract has largely rolled into August, with only around 6.1 million ounces of open interest remaining in the June contract,” the analysts noted. “This also is taking some upward pressures off of prices at present, opening the door for another leg down in prices.“Some investor ardor has cooled. Economic conditions do not appear as dire as they did a couple of months ago,” they added. “While both domestic and international political conditions remain perilous, they seem to have entered a temporarily quiet period. These calmer exogenous trends have caused some investor profit-taking and reduced buying pressures, at least on a short term basis.”“Any of these factors can turn worse quickly, which would be expected to revive investor gold buying and push prices higher,” CPM warned, “but for now gold appears to be consolidating.”Michael Moor, founder of Moor Analytics, expects to see gold prices rise higher next week.“HIGHER, unless we take out lower timeframe formation mentioned below,” he wrote. “In a Higher time frame: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,183.0 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $4,443.1. This is ON HOLD. We held exhaustion at 56192 with a 56268 high and rolled over $1,526.8. This is ON HOLD. On a medium timeframe basis: The trade below 52554 (+15 tics per/hour) projects this down $220 minimum, $740 (+) maximum—we attained $1,155.4. The trade back below 52036 (+13 per/hour) has brought in $1,103.6 of pressure. The trade back below 51606 (+13 per/hour) has brought in $1,060.6 of pressure. The trade below 48530 (+4 tics per/hour) has brought in $753.0 of pressure. These are ON HOLD. We held exhaustion at 40956 with a 41000 low and have rallied $817.7. The trade above 41814 has brought in $736.3 of strength. The trade above 43642 has brought in $553.5 of strength. These are OFF HOLD.”“On a lower timeframe basis: We held exhaustion with a 49177 high and rolled over $554.2,” Moor said. “The break below 48185 projected this down $185 (+)—we attained $455.0. The trade below 47923 projected this down $205 (+)—we attained $428.8. The break below 47420 brought in $378.5 of pressure. On 5/15 we left a medium bearish reversal—we have come off $189.7 from the 45532 open. The break below 45550 brought in $191.5 of pressure. These are ON HOLD. The break back above 44189 (-11.7 tics per/hour) has brought in $117.1 of strength. The trade above 45057 (-4.5 tics per/hour) now warns of decent strength. A maintained gap higher will leave a minor bullish reversal below.”At the time of writing, spot gold last traded at $4,540.53 per ounce for a loss of 0.22% on the week and a gain of 0.99% on the day.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2639670259","isCrawlerRequest":true}