The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1534 ET - Canada's economy is not in a recession even though it has recorded two straight quarters of GDP declines, say economists Jimmy Jean and Randall Bartlett at Desjardins Group. Weakness needs to significant and broad-based to be considered a recession, they say. "According to our analysis, the Canadian economy is not there yet," the firm's economists say. Jean and Bartlett say more than half of Canadian industries tracked have expanded over the six months, and consumer spending has remained solid. They note that 1Q's 0.1% annualized drop was largely driven by a drag in net trade, or the net demand for a country's domestically-produced goods and services by the rest of the world. In 1Q, imports grew solidly while exports fell. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com, @paulvieira)
1419 ET - The weakness in Canada's economy in the first quarter marks a second consecutive contraction in GDP, igniting talk of a technical recession. However, National Bank of Canada's Matthieu Arseneau and Alexandra Ducharme says it is important to keep in mind that GDP was held back by an ongoing demographic slowdown. On a per capita basis, GDP posted a decent 0.9% increase. That highlights that these concerns are exaggerated for now, especially as private domestic demand was also up, the economists say. Still, the pair say the 0.1% annualized decline in 1Q GDP was disappointing and 1.6 percentage points lower than the consensus forecast and the Bank of Canada's projection. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1411 ET - Canada's 1Q GDP report "was outright terrible," says David Watt, economist at Rosenberg Research. Year-over-year growth in Canada is now running into slightly negative territory, compared to 3% in same year-ago period, Watt adds. "Remind me why the Bank of Canada is nattering on about rate hikes?," he asks clients in a note. Of particular concern to Watt is the gradual drawdown of savings to keep consumption in positive territory, up 1.5% annualized in 1Q. The contribution from discretionary saving--or the difference between after-tax income and consumption--to the savings rate has declined from 3.1% in 3Q 2024 to 0.2% in the most recent quarter. It's a sign of a stiff financial squeeze, and households "can only go so far," Watt says. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com)
1410 ET - A record amount of investors are holding onto bitcoin investments, says Nick Pitto of CrypoQuant in a note. Roughly 15.8 million BTC are being held on a long-term basis, says Pitto, which is a record-high. However, the amount of bitcoin being traded in the short-term has fallen roughly 34%, to 4.2 million BTC. This is evidence of a lack of new trading, says Pitto. Analysts say that volumes of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies being traded is generally low, which has exacerbated price moves in either direction this month. Bitcoin has turned higher, but for the month is close to its lowest point seen in the past 30 days at $73,396. In early May, BTC rose as high as over $82,000. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1404 ET - Home builders are seeing declining labor costs despite President Trump's immigration crackdown as they use their heft to draw workers from other parts of the market, says UBS analyst John Lovallo in a media roundtable. The size of the big builders allows them to guarantee workers consistent volume. "That line of sight into workflow is so valuable to the trades that they will take lower pay," he says. "You're seeing a gravitation away from the other parts of the market, even from other industries, like some parts of non-residential construction." Home builders are also using their size to win price concessions from materials suppliers, Lovallo says. (nicholas.miller@wsj.com)
1403 ET - The huge amount of cash Americans have in their homes will give them more confidence to remodel their current homes, especially as high rates discourage them from moving, says UBS analyst John Lovallo in a media roundtable. "There is $35 trillion of equity built up in people's homes," he says. Even if homeowners don't actually tap that equity, having it available gives them confidence to remodel their home to replicate what they would want in a new home. Still, Lovallo says that for the repair and remodel market, housing turnover is a stronger driver than homeowners staying put. (nicholas.miller@wsj.com)
1355 ET - The NEAR Protocol token has gained over 98% over the past 30 days, according to data from Coinglass -- with NEAR up 7.2% today to $2.60, according to LSEG. Near calls itself "the blockchain for AI," which a big reason why it's been able to surge while other cryptocurrencies have stumbled this month. "We expect Near to play a key role in AI agent commerce, which could drive more value to its native token," says Zach Pandl of Grayscale in a note. The token also has privacy features allowing users to get AI agents to perform tasks without compromising user information, which Pandl says has contributed to the token's strength. Privacy coins, specifically Zcash, also posted a strong May despite overall weakness in cryptocurrency. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1155 ET - Major cryptocurrencies have been on the decline in recent days, while equity markets rally to all-time highs. The correlation between equities and bitcoin has been widening, says Coinbase Research. What's given equities their momentum is a strong earnings season. "The equity market has received a powerful fundamental validation that crypto has not matched," says Coinbase. According to the firm, cryptocurrency needs improving liquidity, sustained ETF demand, and/or an improvement in macroeconomics to ease inflation risks. Although major cryptocurrencies look to finish the week lower, they are on stronger footing today. Bitcoin is now up 0.7% to $73,961, says LSEG. Ethereum is up 1.3% to $2,037. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1140 ET - Prediction market Kalshi says that its users in the U.S. will soon be able to invest in perpetual cryptocurrency futures. It is opening a waitlist for users to be able access these perpetual futures, joining competitors like Polymarket in offering these financial instruments. "Perpetual futures are the next chapter," says Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour. "If a prediction market is a photograph of what the world thinks right now, a perpetual is a film - continuously updated, never ending, always present." A spokesperson for Kalshi confirms that bitcoin perps will be offered when the feature is launched, with other cryptocurrencies pending. Polymarket has a data partnership with Dow Jones, the publisher of The Wall Street Journal. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1120 ET - Canada's economy may have just about avoided a technical recession with the stagnation in 1Q GDP following the 4Q contraction, but the picture isn't especially bright, says Fitch Ratings' Jessioca Hinds. The economist argues against reading too much into the big drag from net trade as this largely reflects gold imports that can be very volatile and was offset by a rebuilding of manufacturing inventories after last quarter's drawdown. Still, Hinds says both government consumption and business investment declined, and a modest rise in consumer spending appears to have been funding by savings rather than income. And she says in inflation and a weak jobs market are likely to put further pressure on consumers' purchasing power in 2Q and beyond. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1114 ET - Recession watch is flashing red in Canada. Oxford Economics' Tony Stillo notes the economy took a surprising, albeit tiny, dip in 1Q and has now contracted two consecutive quarters and three of the last four. The weakness, he says, reflects a surge in gold imports, weaker housing investment and a pullback in government investment in weapons systems after a big increase in late 2025. The economist expects large fiscal stimulus to help support renewed growth in the economy this year, with growth expected to ramp up in 2H and though 2027 depending on the outcome of the USMCA renegotiation and an end to the Middle East war. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1104 ET - National inflation data for May suggest that eurozone inflation edged up to 3.1% in May from 3.0% in April, Capital Economics' Jack Allen-Reynolds says. Price growth in France, Italy and Spain accelerated largely due to fuel and services. But inflation declined in Germany, partly on a reduction in fuel taxes. "If oil and natural-gas prices remain around current levels or fall back, energy inflation will already have peaked," Allen-Reynolds says. However, the passthrough of higher energy costs is set to push up food inflation--and to a lesser extent the core rate--in the second half of the year. The European Central Bank looks almost certain to raise interest rates in June and another hike soon afterward is likely, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 29, 2026 15:34 ET (19:34 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments