The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1055 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories increased by less than usual and less than expected last week, according to data released by the EIA. Natural gas in underground storage was up by 95 billion cubic feet at 2,578 Bcf, reducing the surplus over the five-year average to 138 Bcf from 144 Bcf the week before. The net injection was smaller than the 2021-2025 average for the week of 101 Bcf, and below the 105 Bcf estimate in a WSJ survey of analysts. The build put stocks 3 Bcf below their year-earlier level. Nymex natural gas futures are up 3.4% at $3.324/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1053 ET - The European Central Bank is expected to hike interest rates twice this year before going back on hold, says Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics. With inflation tracking above the central bank's March forecasts, a hike in July is all but certain, and Capital Economics expects another in July. "But second-round effects of higher energy prices on inflation should be limited, meaning that the ECB's tightening cycle will be short," Allen-Reynolds says. Weak demand and economic growth should limit any broader inflation spiral, he adds. Should the Strait of Hormuz reopen and energy prices fall, the ECB could cut interest rates back to 2% in 2027, he says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
1049 ET - War-driven inflation shifts the outlook for global monetary policy, Fitch's Brian Coulton writes. Mindful of post-pandemic inflation, central banks "are keen to demonstrate credibility and anchor expectations," he says. Coulton notes that policy rates are "much higher than in 2021," while labor market conditions and wage pressures are softer and fiscal policy is less expansionary. Fitch expects the Fed and the BoE to hold rates this year and to resume cuts in 2027. It sees the ECB raising rates in June and reversing the move next year. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1038 ET - California's high utility-scale battery storage capacity is limiting the state's call on natural-gas fired electricity to meet demand when solar generation falls off, East Daley Analytics says in a note. "California's battery component is proving particularly effective at displacing gas load," the energy intelligence firm says. "Early trends in the 2026 summer suggest the transition to solar and batteries continues to eat away at gas use." Although battery storage initially manages the evening rise in electricity demand, gas-fired generation remains critical to maintain reliability after battery discharge tapers later in the night, East Daley adds. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0930 ET - Crude futures return yesterday's gains as a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon is seen possibly removing an obstacle in U.S.-Iran talks, although the agreement still needs Iran-backed Hezbollah to sign on. "We have seen many rounds of calm in the past that ended with a return to escalation," Samer Hasn of XS.com says in a note. Meanwhile, Iran continues to contradict U.S. assertions of progress toward a deal, he says. "Unless we receive a signed, written, and binding agreement, we should expect ongoing escalation that will maintain the strait's closure and drive oil prices higher. "WTI is down 3.1% at $93.01 a barrel and Brent is off 2.6% at $95.26. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0919 ET - The Swiss National Bank would likely welcome the prospect of the European Central Bank raising interest rates next week and the Federal Reserve signalling it could follow suit, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. The ECB could lift rates on June 11 and hint at further tightening, he says. The Fed, which announces its decision on June 17, could endorse expectations for future rate rises. This would offer the SNB some relief by potentially curbing the franc's strength, Juckes says. "It might be too much to hope for, that [the euro and dollar both rise against the franc] at the same time, but the SNB is the only central bank welcoming upward pressure on (everyone else's) interest rates." (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0910 ET - U.S. natural gas futures gain in early trading with warmer weather forecasts lifting demand expectations for coming weeks. "The first test could come tomorrow and into the weekend where the northeast will see the mercury climb through 90 again," Tradition Energy's Gary Cunningham says in a note. The coming heat is expected to add to power-sector gas demand "and firm up the fundamentals for the remainder of summer," he adds. Storage data for last week due at 10:30 a.m. ET are expected to show an injection of 105 Bcf, slightly larger than the five-year average, according to a WSJ survey of analysts. Nymex natural gas is up 1.8% at $3.273/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0854 ET -- Chevron is quietly and deliberately expanding its presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, Melius Research analysts James West and Sanskriti Reddy say in a research note. Greece, where the company recently made an acquisition and been awarded rights, marks its next frontier, they write. "With the conflict in the Middle East continuing to expose the fragility of the modern global energy system, Chevron's de-risked Eastern Mediterranean asset base and its frontier potential are differentiated and increasingly valuable." Chevron isn't alone, though. ExxonMobil is also expanding its presence in the region. "The entrance of two supermajors into the area at roughly the same time suggests these companies like what they see, and we expect others to follow," the analysts write. (connor.hart@wsj.com)
0845 ET - The euro's scope to rise looks limited if the European Central Bank raises interest rates on June 11, Monex Europe analysts say in a note. A potential rate rise could come to be seen as a mistake, they say. The inflation shock is largely imported and energy driven, while the growth backdrop is fragile, they say. The ECB might defend its inflation credibility but it can't increase energy supply, reopen disrupted shipping routes or reverse the terms of trade shock through higher rates. "For the euro versus the dollar, this creates an uncomfortable dynamic." Monex expects the euro to rise to $1.17 by the end of June and $1.19 in six months, compared to $1.1634 currently. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0755 ET - The Swiss National Bank could downplay the need for foreign exchange interventions to counter the franc's strength at its June 18 meeting, J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable Asset Management economist Karsten Junius says in a note. In the SNB's last policy statement it said its willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased given the Middle East conflict. At the next meeting, the SNB might instead say its willingness to be active in the currency market remains elevated, Junius says. "By putting less emphasis on the topic, the SNB could make clear that it is less concerned about the exchange rate." The euro falls 0.1% to 0.9179 francs after reaching a one-month high of 0.9193 Wednesday, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0618 ET - Crude palm oil closed lower, reversing some of Wednesday's price gains owing to weakness in soybean oil prices, according to David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Recent poor export performance is also weighing on sentiment, Ng says. He sees prices of crude palm oil supported above 4,500 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,700 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for August delivery falls 75 ringgit to 4,602 ringgit a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0611 ET - Investors worry about the risk of inflation rising in the U.K. given high energy prices since the start of the Middle East war, AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth says in a note. Yields on U.K. government bonds are still relatively high compared to prewar levels, reflecting investors' concerns about inflationary pressures, he says. Ten-year gilt yields are last steady on the day at 4.916%, Tradeweb data show. Nonetheless, 10-year gilt yields are around 68 basis points higher compared to levels seen before the start of the conflict. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 04, 2026 10:55 ET (14:55 GMT)
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