Why Ethereum Could Tank Another 25% Before Finding a Bottom: Analysis

Decrypt06-03 18:31

In brief Ethereum dropped 8% today alone, crashing through the $2,000 psychological support zone and hitting an intraday low near $1,814. On Myriad, traders are now betting ETH reaches $1,500 before ...

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Prediction markets place a 71% chance on a drop to $1,500—and the charts aren't pushing back.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"decrypt.co","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"EZET":"以太坊ETF-Franklin","ETHI":"Defiance Leveraged Long Income Ethereum ETF","ETCO":"Grayscale Ethereum Covered Call ETF","SETH":"1倍做空以太币期货ETF-Proshares","BTF":"比特币&以太币期货ETF-CoinShares","ETHT":"ProShares Ultra Ether ETF","ESK":"REX-Osprey ETH + Staking ETF","ETU":"T-Rex 2X Long Ether Daily Target ETF","ETHU":"2倍以太币期货ETF-Volatility Shares","ETHV":"以太坊ETF-VanEck","ETQ":"T-Rex 2X Inverse Ether Daily Target ETF","QETH":"以太坊ETF-Invesco Galaxy","ETHW":"以太坊ETF-Bitwise","EETH":"以太币期货ETF-ProShares","ETH":"低成本以太坊ETF-Grayscale","ETHA":"以太坊ETF-iShares","FETH":"以太币ETF-Fidelity","TETH":"21Shares Ethereum ETF","YETH":"Roundhill Ether Covered Call Strategy ETF","ETHD":"ProShares UltraShort Ether ETF","ETHE":"最大以太坊ETF-Grayscale"},"translate_title":"为什么以太币在触底之前可能会再下跌25%：分析","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"EZET":0.6,"ETHA":0.6,"ETHI":0.6,"ETH":0.6,"ETHU":0.6,"ETCO":0.6,"ETHV":0.6,"ETHW":0.6,"ETQ":0.6,"TETH":0.6,"ESK":0.6,"ETU":0.6,"ETHT":0.6,"QETH":0.6,"YETH":0.6,"SETH":0.6,"BTF":0.6,"ETHD":0.6,"FETH":0.6,"EETH":0.6,"ETHE":0.6},"content_text":"In brief\nEthereum dropped 8% today alone, crashing through the $2,000 psychological support zone and hitting an intraday low near $1,814.\nOn Myriad, traders are now betting ETH reaches $1,500 before it bounces back to $3,000—a probability that surged nearly 25% in recent weeks.\nThe charts back the bearish bet: RSI is in bear territory, the Squeeze Momentum Indicator just fired a bearish signal, and there's no meaningful support between $1,700 and the $1,400–$1,500 range.\nIf you've been tracking crypto prices over the last couple days, you already know the broader picture: the market is getting hammered. Bitcoin cratered below $67,000, its worst level since April, and ETFs are bleeding.But while things aren’t looking great for Bitcoin in the near term, Ethereum—the second largest crypto asset by market capitalization—is getting hit worse.Ethereum fell below $2,000 on June 2 and hasn't looked back. There are several possible reasons, beyond the typical macroeconomic winds, why ETH may be especially bearish at the moment: key developers at the Ethereum Foundation have jumped ship, some very vocal, high-profile supporters have sold their bags, and Ethereum ETFs have now logged 15 consecutive trading days of net outflows.On Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, current odds on Ethereum’s next move tell you everything you need to know about ETH sentiment at the moment. Traders are now pricing in a 71% chance that Ethereum drops all the way down to $1,500 before making any kind of comeback. Those odds are up 25% since mid-May.Ethereum price: What the charts sayToday's Ethereum price action is brutal in its clarity. ETH opened at $2,004, tested a high of $2,018—barely clearing the broken $2,000 level before sellers stepped in—then plunged to an intraday low of $1,814.90, showing a clean rejection and continuation event.Ethereum price data. Image: TradingviewThe pattern of lower highs and lower lows that's been in place since Ethereum's all-time high of $4,954 in August 2025 is still very much intact.The chart shows a critical level around $1,700. If ETH doesn't find buyers and stage a meaningful bounce at or above that zone today or in the next few sessions, there's very little standing between the current price and the $1,400 support cluster—a region that acted as major resistance-turned-support in early 2023.That's roughly 25% below current levels if it touches the minimums from 2025, which is exactly what the prediction market is pricing in.The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, sits at 34.26—in bear territory and approaching oversold. RSI measures overbought and oversold conditions on a scale of 0 to 100; readings below 30 typically signal a market that's been sold too hard too fast. We're not there yet, and a reading in the mid-30s doesn't automatically mean a bounce is coming. It just means sellers have had the wheel for a while, but there is room for a bigger dip before oversold levels show their effect.The Average Directional Index, or ADX, reads 21.6—technically \"weak\" (the price is not dropping as fast as it was previously) but trending upward. ADX measures the strength of a trend regardless of direction; readings above 25 confirm an actual trend is developing. The fact that it's creeping toward that threshold while the price of ETH is falling is not encouraging for traders.The EMAs—Exponential Moving Averages—paint a complicated picture. The chart still shows the 50-day moving average above the 200-day, technically a \"golden cross\" on the long timeframe. But ETH is trading well below both averages right now, which means those levels are acting as resistance, not support. Price has to fight uphill just to get back to neutral. The 50-day EMA sits around $2,194, and the 200-day is near $2,510. Both are ceilings, not floors, at current prices.The gap between both EMAs is closing fast, which could potentially end up in a “death cross”—the inverse of a golden cross and a textbook bearish indicator in technical analysis.The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is on, firing with a momentum reading of -0.35. The Squeeze fires when volatility compresses—like a spring being coiled—and then measures which direction the energy releases. This hopium indicator may be a sign of prices compressing before a bounce, but it does not necessarily mean there will be a change of direction, only that right now there is a fight between bulls and bears that have stagnated prices.Moon or doom? That is the questionThe bull thesis from here is essentially a mean-reversion play. With RSI near 34, a squeeze in play, and ETH down roughly 60% from its all-time high, the argument is that the selling has been overdone and any macro relief—a softer-than-expected jobs report, a Fed pivot signal, or de-escalation in the Middle East—could trigger a sharp short-squeeze bounce. The $1,700 zone also represents a significant psychological level that bulls will attempt to defend.There's also the Ethereum roadmap. The network's Glamsterdam upgrade, confirmed by the Ethereum Foundation for Q3 2026, targets a major gas limit expansion and 10,000 transactions per second on the layer-1 network. If institutional sentiment stabilizes around that catalyst, buying could return before prices get much worse. Some buyers may see the current discount as an opportunity rather than a warning.The problem with the bounce thesis is that none of the macro triggers are imminent, and the technicals aren't supporting a reversal yet. The 15-day ETF outflow streak for Ethereum is a sign of how the overall market feels. Institutional money leaving isn't a sentiment issue that resolves in one session—it reflects a broader rotation out of crypto and into AI equities, where earnings visibility is real and tangible in a way that ETH's network utility isn't, at least right now.The chart structure is also working against buyers. ETH has printed lower highs and lower lows consistently. Every bounce attempt since breaking $2,500 has been capped and reversed. The $2,000 level, which had held as support for weeks, broke with conviction yesterday.Ethereum price data. Image: TradingviewDisclaimerThe views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.Your EmailGet it!Get it!","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2640186057","isCrawlerRequest":true}