Mirvac Group (ASX:MGR) could be in a position to improve its return on invested capital and sustain earnings per share growth over fiscal year 2026 to fiscal year 2028 if the macro outlook turns more constructive, Jefferies said in a May 31 note.
The company's continued office down-weighting strategy should mitigate income and sentiment pressures, alongside natural cash earnings accretion from the recycling out of capital expenditure-intensive assets, the investment firm said.
"We would expect further living-sector investment to be done on a capital-efficient basis, which should support the elevated and upward trajectory of returns," Jefferies said.
The equity research firm believes fiscal year 2027 and fiscal year 2028 are gearing up to be "materially stronger" settlement years for Mirvac, underpinned by a growing active project base and decade-low default rates. While the company is well-positioned to boost sales and settlement volumes, the near-term macro backdrop does create some uncertainty on its fiscal 2027 demand setup.
Jefferies started coverage of Mirvac with a hold rating and price target of AU$1.82.
The investment firm said it could become more positive on the company on signs of an improving housing cycle, easing construction cost inflation, and higher trending auction clearance rates.
Mirvac shares fell 2% in recent Monday trade.
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