The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0843 ET - An end to the Iran war and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would allow the euro to recover against the dollar but gains are likely to be limited, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. "While an October rate cut from the Federal Reserve should allow the euro to trend upwards in the second half, we don't expect the [euro versus the dollar] to gain significant upward traction in this period." The market is already well priced for two interest-rate rises by the European Central Bank in this period and eurozone growth headwinds mean the euro could struggle to reach $1.20 this year, she says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1646. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0758 ET - The dollar appears suspended between optimism and skepticism regarding a possible peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. "Since the end of March, investors appear to have traded the market with the view that the worst-case scenario is unlikely to happen." However, the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the greater the economic damage and optimism for a deal will run dry eventually, she says. The market is growing more impatient for concrete news about a deal, she says. Without an end to the war, the euro versus the dollar will struggle to recover meaningfully, she says. The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1644. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 99.078. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0754 ET - Equinor's shares have two tailwinds that could push them nearly 25% higher, Baader's Frederic Lorec writes. The first is a structural one, he says. The Norwegian energy major has become a key gas supplier to Europe after the bloc weaned itself off Russian gas after the invasion of Ukraine. Gas prices have been elevated since Qatari gas facilities were damaged during the conflict in the Middle East and mean Norwegian gas margins should remain supported through at least 2028, Lorec adds. Secondly, low-cost oil production means the company is benefiting from the current higher oil prices, he adds. An Iran deal would hurt both tailwinds, but this isn't the base case given the state of negotiations, he adds. Shares rise 2.9% to 344.70 krone. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0742 ET - Bitcoin is under pressure as the U.S. seizure of Iranian cryptocurrency holdings hits sentiment, IG's Chris Beauchamp says in a note. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday that the U.S. had seized about $1 billion in Iranian crypto assets as part of efforts to squeeze Iran's revenue streams under the Operation Economic Fury campaign. "In a world where cryptocurrencies struggle to hold the attention they once did, such news is hardly helpful," Beauchamp says. Another threat to bitcoin is if the recent artificial-intelligence-fueled rally in U.S. stocks reverses given the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and crude inventory draws, he says. Bitcoin falls 1.4% to $72,607, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0628 ET - Candriam is neutral on U.S. duration given uncertainties surrounding the Middle East and U.S. interest rates, says Nicolas Jullien in a note. "Uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict, oil price developments, and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) response continue to argue against a strong strategic position in nominal U.S. Treasuries," the global head of fixed income says.(emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0603 ET - China's mixed purchasing managers' index reading suggests the economy is "muddling through," according to ING in a research note. China's official manufacturing PMI slipped back to a neutral level of 50, while the non-manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose into expansion territory. While the non-manufacturing PMI beat expectations, the breakdown of the sub-indexes doesn't suggest a very strong outlook, it says. Meanwhile, the continued outperformance of the RatingDog PMI, which focuses more on smaller and export-oriented businesses, suggests external demand is outpacing domestic demand, ING says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
0557 ET - U.S. Treasury yields rise while the dollar is slightly firmer as an imminent deal in the Middle East is still elusive. "Fresh military exchanges over the weekend underscored the fragility of the current ceasefire and highlighted the risks facing any long-term agreement," says Kudotrade's Konstantinos Chrysikos in a note. "The uncertainty could continue to fuel demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset and could keep bond yields elevated," he says. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 1.6 basis points to 4.468%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 99.027. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0528 ET - Swiss economic growth in the first three months of the year was weaker than expected, with a slowdown looming in the second quarter, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ankita Amajuri says in a note. GDP growth adjusted for sporting events was 0.4%, revised down from 0.5% in the advance estimate. "Looking ahead, survey data give false hopes of a sustained recovery," Amajuri says. The sharp rise in May's PMIs is largely attributable to a surge in price pressures on supply-chain disruptions due to the Iran war. After domestic demand was stagnant in the first quarter, household demand will remain subdued in the second as the energy shock weighs on incomes. GDP growth will likely slow to around 0.2% to 0.3% on-quarter over the rest of 2026, she says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
0504 ET - The euro is little changed against the dollar after a European Central Bank survey showed inflation expectations were broadly steady in April. Median consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months and five years were unchanged at 4.0% and 2.4% respectively, although fell slightly for three years ahead to 2.9% from 3.0% in March. Consumers' nominal income growth expectations for the next 12 months fell to 0.8% in April from 1.2% in March. Growth expectations for the next 12 months worsened to an economic contraction of 2.2% in April from a 2.1% contraction in March. However, expectations for the unemployment rate in 12 months' time fell to 11.2% in April from 11.3% in March. The euro trades flat at $1.1657. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0423 ET - Markets have priced in a lot of good news and bond yields therefore have limited scope to move lower, ING strategists say in a note. The Brent oil price remains a key factor to watch as it may not easily fall below the $90 per barrel level. Even if a U.S.-Iran deal is struck, second-round effects from high energy costs will remain a risk for many more months, the strategists say. "And if U.S. growth manages to keep showing resilience, then the room for global rates to ease lower is even more constrained," they say. Focus remains on inflation and positive market sentiment from U.S. equities, so U.S. Treasury yields look likely to remain elevated for the time being, the strategists say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0416 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds rise, tracking moves in U.S. and eurozone peers, after Iran attacked a U.S. military base in Kuwait in response to U.S. strikes against military targets in southern Iran. The latest events spark concerns about the fragile state of U.S.-Iran peace talks while oil prices increase as a result, reigniting worries about inflation. The U.S. and Iran have still not managed to hammer out a deal, though analysts say investors continue to expect that an agreement will be reached. Ten-year gilt yields move up 3 basis points to 4.837%, Tradeweb data show. However, they remain well below highs above 5.1% reached in mid-May. (jessica.fleetham@wsj.com)
0414 ET - Manufacturing PMIs for Asia so far suggest the region is still shrugging off the drag from higher energy prices, Capital Economics' Gareth Leather says. Not only did the headline number rise in South Korea, Vietnam, Philippines and Taiwan, it was also above the 50.0 mark separating expansion from contraction. The strength of manufacturing suggests that the surge in global demand for electronics is helping blunt the impact of the rise in energy prices spurred by the Middle crisis. However, PMI output and input price subindexes remain very high by historical standards, echoing the conditions that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Inflation data for May are likely to show another uptick, backing CE's view that most central banks in the region will raise interest rates further. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 01, 2026 08:43 ET (12:43 GMT)
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