Bitcoin Weakness Is Hitting Strategy and Coinbase. What the Charts Say. -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones06-04 23:46

By Doug Busch

The recent weakness in Bitcoin that I highlighted earlier this week is now beginning to spill over into Bitcoin proxy equities, with both Strategy and Coinbase showing signs of deteriorating technical structure. As sentiment around Bitcoin softens, these high-beta proxy names are increasingly reflecting the shift, with momentum fading and key support levels coming under pressure.

Let's take a closer look at the charts of Strategy and Coinbase to better understand what is happening beneath the surface in these Bitcoin-linked names.

Strategy, a leveraged Bitcoin proxy play, now trades more than 70% below its 52-week high. As of Thursday morning, the stock was down 20% for the week, putting it on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline. The weekly chart shows moves back toward the very round $100 number, including in May and August 2024 and again this February.

Looking at the daily chart of Strategy, momentum has been notably soft, with a bearish MACD crossover occurring about one month ago. At the same time, the stock broke below a mild uptrend on its ratio chart versus the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF, signaling weakening performance versus the broader software space.

Further deterioration began last October, when a bearish death cross formed as the 50-day simple moving average moved below the 200-day simple moving average. From there, price action accelerated lower, with the stock sliding from $365 to $100 in roughly four months, reflecting persistent distribution pressure.

More recently, the stock attempted to stabilize within a bullish ascending triangle, repeatedly stalling at the very round $200 number. However, this structure was invalidated following the break of the short-term uptrend line earlier this week. As a result, downside risk remains elevated, with a potential move toward the round $100 area in the near term, 28% below current levels.

Strategy was trading around $128 Thursday.

Coinbase Global, a cryptocurrency exchange operator, trades 63% below its 52-week high and is down 27% year to date. Price action has been very soft, with the stock failing to post back-to-back weekly gains in nearly three months.

Looking at the weekly chart of Coinbase, the stock has developed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern that began forming in the summer of 2024. At the troughs of this structure, there were notable bullish reactions, including a harami in September 2024 and a bullish engulfing candle in April 2025, both of which previously triggered strong upside moves.

In prior instances, price action around the $150 area led to sharp expansions higher, with gains of roughly 140% following the September setup and about 211% after the April signal. However, this time the stock has failed to generate a comparable upside response, instead showing signs of hesitation and weakening momentum.

More recently, it has begun to lose its longer-term footing, slipping below its 200-week simple moving average. This deterioration in trend structure raises concern that downside risk is increasing, with potential for a move toward the $100 area into year-end, a 64% decline from current levels.

Coinbase Global was trading around $164 Thursday.

Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

 

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June 04, 2026 11:46 ET (15:46 GMT)

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