The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1213 ET - Oil prices are lower as a tentative ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon lifts hopes for U.S.-Iran negotiations. "These on-again, off-again developments keep the market on edge," Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. "Geopolitical risk is still the dominant driver, but any sign of de-escalation brings quick selling pressure as traders take profits." Even if a framework for a deal is reached that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, "analysts (including myself) caution that full normalization of flows could take months due to logistical, de-mining, and verification hurdles," Flynn adds. WTI is off 3.1% at $93.04 and Brent is down 2.8% at $95.08. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1154 ET - Copper prices rise in afternoon trading, with three-month futures on the LME up 1.1% to $13,941.50 a metric ton. Supply risks have intensified following the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting copper supply chains through sulphur and sulphuric acid markets. China's restrictions on acid exports have added further pressure. Meanwhile, U.S. stockpiling has left inventories on the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange relatively depleted, reinforcing perceptions of scarcity in Europe and Asia. "This runs the risk that the current price signals overstate underlying physical scarcity outside the U.S.," analysts at ANZ say. The firm expects copper to remain above $13,500 a ton this year and approach $14,000 by year-end. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1134 ET - Gold prices extend gains, supported by a slight retreat in the U.S. dollar and falling crude as traders hope the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon could remove an obstacle in U.S.-Iran talks. New York gold futures are up 0.7% to $4,500.60 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index falls 0.2% to 99.35, and Brent and WTI are down 3%. Traders are closely watching the latest U.S. data and cues for the Federal Reserve's next move, fearing higher interest rates for longer or even a potential hike, which would weigh on non-yielding bullion. However, "for now, hikes are still not a foregone conclusion," says Stephen Brown from Capital Economics. "The May employment report tomorrow could yet change the narrative." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1120 ET - Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena says in an interview with CNBC that the railroad can complete its merger without any third-party help, when asked to respond to reports that President Trump is interested in taking a stake in the company. "We're a company that can afford to make this deal… and we do not need anybody's help to do this," Vena says. "I find it comforting that the President of the U.S. looked at what we're doing and said, 'Son of a gun, this is a good business, a good business move, strong, and I'd like to invest,'" he continues. Vena notes he hasn't had any direct communication with Trump to talk about a potential partnership with the U.S. government. (connor.hart@wsj.com)
1104 ET - Union Pacific CEO Jim Vena says in an interview with CNBC that the railroad will work with the Surface Transportation Board, supplying the additional information that the agency said last week it needed to thoroughly evaluate its proposed merger with Norfolk Southern. "We said to the STB chair and the STB members--if you want more information, we'll give it to you," Vena says, adding the company will submit the requested information to the board within the allotted 60-day window. (connor.hart@wsj.com)
1055 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories increased by less than usual and less than expected last week, according to data released by the EIA. Natural gas in underground storage was up by 95 billion cubic feet at 2,578 Bcf, reducing the surplus over the five-year average to 138 Bcf from 144 Bcf the week before. The net injection was smaller than the 2021-2025 average for the week of 101 Bcf, and below the 105 Bcf estimate in a WSJ survey of analysts. The build put stocks 3 Bcf below their year-earlier level. Nymex natural gas futures are up 3.4% at $3.324/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1053 ET - The European Central Bank is expected to hike interest rates twice this year before going back on hold, says Jack Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics. With inflation tracking above the central bank's March forecasts, a hike in July is all but certain, and Capital Economics expects another in July. "But second-round effects of higher energy prices on inflation should be limited, meaning that the ECB's tightening cycle will be short," Allen-Reynolds says. Weak demand and economic growth should limit any broader inflation spiral, he adds. Should the Strait of Hormuz reopen and energy prices fall, the ECB could cut interest rates back to 2% in 2027, he says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
1049 ET - War-driven inflation shifts the outlook for global monetary policy, Fitch's Brian Coulton writes. Mindful of post-pandemic inflation, central banks "are keen to demonstrate credibility and anchor expectations," he says. Coulton notes that policy rates are "much higher than in 2021," while labor market conditions and wage pressures are softer and fiscal policy is less expansionary. Fitch expects the Fed and the BoE to hold rates this year and to resume cuts in 2027. It sees the ECB raising rates in June and reversing the move next year. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1038 ET - California's high utility-scale battery storage capacity is limiting the state's call on natural-gas fired electricity to meet demand when solar generation falls off, East Daley Analytics says in a note. "California's battery component is proving particularly effective at displacing gas load," the energy intelligence firm says. "Early trends in the 2026 summer suggest the transition to solar and batteries continues to eat away at gas use." Although battery storage initially manages the evening rise in electricity demand, gas-fired generation remains critical to maintain reliability after battery discharge tapers later in the night, East Daley adds. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0930 ET - Crude futures return yesterday's gains as a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon is seen possibly removing an obstacle in U.S.-Iran talks, although the agreement still needs Iran-backed Hezbollah to sign on. "We have seen many rounds of calm in the past that ended with a return to escalation," Samer Hasn of XS.com says in a note. Meanwhile, Iran continues to contradict U.S. assertions of progress toward a deal, he says. "Unless we receive a signed, written, and binding agreement, we should expect ongoing escalation that will maintain the strait's closure and drive oil prices higher. "WTI is down 3.1% at $93.01 a barrel and Brent is off 2.6% at $95.26. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0919 ET - The Swiss National Bank would likely welcome the prospect of the European Central Bank raising interest rates next week and the Federal Reserve signalling it could follow suit, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. The ECB could lift rates on June 11 and hint at further tightening, he says. The Fed, which announces its decision on June 17, could endorse expectations for future rate rises. This would offer the SNB some relief by potentially curbing the franc's strength, Juckes says. "It might be too much to hope for, that [the euro and dollar both rise against the franc] at the same time, but the SNB is the only central bank welcoming upward pressure on (everyone else's) interest rates." (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0910 ET - U.S. natural gas futures gain in early trading with warmer weather forecasts lifting demand expectations for coming weeks. "The first test could come tomorrow and into the weekend where the northeast will see the mercury climb through 90 again," Tradition Energy's Gary Cunningham says in a note. The coming heat is expected to add to power-sector gas demand "and firm up the fundamentals for the remainder of summer," he adds. Storage data for last week due at 10:30 a.m. ET are expected to show an injection of 105 Bcf, slightly larger than the five-year average, according to a WSJ survey of analysts. Nymex natural gas is up 1.8% at $3.273/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 04, 2026 12:13 ET (16:13 GMT)
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