Vegoils price commentary: CME soyoil declines sharply on crude, US biofuels uncertainties; CPO down on related oils

Fastmarkets12:00

Vegoils futures closed the week broadly lower on Friday. Crude palm oil (CPO) futures extended losses to close near week-earlier levels with gains from Wednesday mostly erased in the short trading ...

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Bear 2X Shares","XLE":"SPDR能源指数ETF","WTIU":"MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETN","LU0823417737.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","BWET":"BREAKWAVE TANKER SHIPPING ETF","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0950375773.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC A","LU0742537680.HKD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A \" (HKD) INC","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) ACC","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","BNO":"美国布伦特原油基金有限合伙企业","GUSH":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil &Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares","DIG":"二倍做多美国油气指数","VDE":"Vanguard Energy ETF","PXE":"Invesco Energy Exploration & Production ETF","OIH":"石油服务ETF","DRLL":"Strive U.S. Energy ETF"},"translate_title":"Vegoils价格评论：CME豆油因原油和美国生物燃料不确定性大幅下跌；CPO下跌相关油","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PXJ":0.9,"DRIP":0.9,"OILT":0.9,"BNO":0.9,"DBC":0.9,"SCO":0.6,"VDE":0.9,"XES":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"GUSH":0.9,"PXE":0.9,"DBO":0.9,"DIG":0.9,"IXC":0.9,"UGA":0.9,"USE":0.9,"OIH":0.9,"DRLL":0.9,"WTIU":0.9,"IEO":0.9,"OILK":0.9,"ASO":1,"USOI":0.9,"DBE":0.9,"CME":1.5,"FTXN":0.9,"USO":0.9,"UCO":0.6,"OILU":0.9,"BWET":0.9,"XLE":0.9,"ERX":0.9,"OND":1,"USL":0.9,"XOP":0.9},"content_text":"Vegoils futures closed the week broadly lower on Friday.\nCrude palm oil (CPO) futures extended losses to close near week-earlier levels with gains from Wednesday mostly erased in the short trading week as weaker related oils continued to weigh, while participants took position ahead of the weekend with focus next on next Wednesday’s May demand data release from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), soyoil futures declined sharply, pressured by falling crude oil, legal challenges to rising US biofuel mandates and profit-taking.\nThe most-active August CPO futures contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives fell by 1.02% to close at 4,554 ringgit ($1,131) per tonne after trading between 4,522-4,611 ringgit per tonne with the contract remaining mostly in negative territory for most of the day.\nVeg oil prices\nOn a weekly basis, the third month contract has increased by 0.42% from last Friday’s settlement of 4,535 ringgit per tonne, extending its weekly rise for a third straight week, though most of the gains made earlier in the week were pared by Friday with pressure coming from a sell-off in CME soybean oil futures and Chinese vegoils.\nCrude oil prices have also edged lower through the week though movement has remained volatile amid headlines over peace talks and attacks in the Middle East.\nOn the currency side, the Malaysian ringgit weakened against the US dollar for a third consecutive session on Friday, touching a two-month low and limiting some of the downside for CPO futures. The currency has declined 1.6% over the short trading week and is now broadly unchanged year-to-date, following a sharp appreciation earlier in February.\nChinese vegoil futures fell across the board on Friday, with the September palm olein futures contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange falling by over 300 yuan per tonne to close at 9,382 yuan ($1,387) per tonne, while the equivalent soybean oil contract also fell by 1.32% to 8,440 yuan per tonne.\nThe September rapeseed oil futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange also fell by over 300 yuan per tonne to close at 9,990 yuan per tonne after trading above 10,000 yuan per tonne the last two days, erasing gains amid pressure from the wider vegoil complex and lack of stronger buying momentum.\nMeanwhile, private brokerage UOB Kay Hian estimated Malaysia’s May production at 6-10% below April levels after the BMD close, while estimates from the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) were still pending ahead of the MPOB data release on June 10.\nThis was a larger drop compared to average estimates from newswire polls of a 4-5% decline, which if true could soften the expected build-up in May inventories with exports expected to fare poorer in May compared to April.\nIn the cash market, offers for CPO out of Indonesia were at $1,190-1,210 per tonne FOB Indonesia for June shipment, with buying ideas at $1,180-1,187.50 per tonne FOB Indonesia, while July offers were at $1,200 per tonne FOB Indonesia with buying ideas around $1,185 per tonne FOB Indonesia.\nOffers for olein were around $1,130-1,140 per tonne FOB Indonesia for July shipment with buying ideas at $1,105-1,115 per tonne FOB Indonesia.\nOlein was also traded to China at $1,213-1,216 per tonne CFR for December on Friday.\nCPO trades to India for June shipment were also concluded at $1,230 per tonne CFR west coast India and at $1,220 per tonne CFR east coast India earlier in the day, with offers toward the day’s close at $1,230-1,240 per tonne CFR WCI and buying ideas at $1,222.50-1,230 per tonne CFR WCI, also for June.\nSoybean oil prices\nSoybean oil was also traded to India for August-September shipment at $1,260-1,265 per tonne CFR WCI earlier in the day, with offers around $1,267-1,272 per tonne CFR WCI in the evening and heard edging lower after Fastmarkets’ assessment time. Offers for July shipment were around $1,272-1,280 per tonne CFR WCI, while October-December shipment soybean oil was offered around $1,275-1,280 per tonne CFR WCI.\nSunflower oil from Argentina was also offered around $1,390 per tonne CIF India for July and August shipment, while Black Sea-origin sunflower oil was offered around $1,430 per tonne CIF LW for shipment in June-July.\nIn the Americas, CME soyoil futures extended losses from the previous session on Friday, pressured mainly by declining crude oil prices, while legal challenges to rising US biofuel blending mandates and profit-taking following recent record highs added further downward pressure.\nThe most-active July CME soybean oil contract fell by 2.84% day on day to 74.12 cents per lb.\nFalling crude oil futures continued to weigh on soyoil amid prospects of progress in US-Iran talks, after US President Donald Trump said negotiations were advancing, despite Hezbollah having rejected a US-backed ceasefire proposal.\nMarket participants continued to adjust positions through technical selling following a sharp rally in prices, which had been underpinned by bullish demand expectations for US feedstocks amid higher blending mandates and rising Renewable Identification Number (RIN) values.\nThe American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) filed a lawsuit on May 29 challenging the US Environmental Protection Agency’s 2026-2027 Renewable Fuel Standard “Set 2” mandates, arguing that higher biofuel blending requirements will raise compliance costs and fuel prices.\nThe move came as biodiesel RINs reached record highs, with compliance costs exceeding 35 cents per gallon.\nThe EPA’s final rule significantly increases biomass-based diesel and advanced biofuel obligations, and AFPM estimates total compliance costs could surpass $106 billion over two years, warning that stronger demand for credits could deplete the RIN bank by 2027.\nMeanwhile, CME soymeal futures also declined on Friday, mainly driven by a sharp drop in corn and wheat prices, which pressured soybean futures during the session. Product spreading against weaker soyoil limited further losses.\nThe USDA said that 190,000 tonnes of US soymeal were delivered to the Philippines in the 2025/26 marketing year.\nThe most-active July CME soymeal contract fell by 1.66% day on day to $308.50 per short ton.\nIn the physical market in South America, soyoil bases moved sharply higher on Friday from Fastmarkets’ previous assessment on Wednesday June 3, before the holiday in Brazil, because of lower CME soyoil futures.\nThe July basis in Argentina was assessed at a discount of 21.3 cents per lb to July futures, up by 3.85 cents per lb from Wednesday’s assessment, while the corresponding basis in Brazil was assessed at a discount of 21 cents per lb to July futures, up by 3.5 cents per lb from the previous assessment. \nOn the soymeal front, the July basis in Brazil rose by $2.50 per short ton compared with the previous assessment, at a discount of $6 per short ton to July futures.In Argentina, the corresponding soymeal basis increased by $1 per short ton from the previous assessment to a discount of $8.50 per short ton to the same futures contract.\nAs of 5:50pm Central European Time, Euronext August rapeseed futures were trading at €522 ($603) per tonne, down by €1 per tonne from the last market close.\nRapeseed oil prices\nFOB Rotterdam rapeseed oil (RSO) prices were mixed along the curve on Friday amid softer moves across the wider vegetable oils complex, with palm oil in Malaysia dipping on the day and US soybean oil futures weaker at the time of writing. \nRSO values also tracked declines in both Paris rapeseed futures and Canadian canola futures during the session, which eased alongside a weaker energy complex as crude oil grades slipped on the day.\nFor July volumes, offers were heard at €1,260 per tonne, with bids at €1,225-1,230 per tonne. \nFor August, offers were indicated at €1,162-1,167 per tonne, with bids at €1,150 per tonne, while for the August-September-October (ASO) strip offers were reported at €1,160 per tonne, with buy-side interest at €1,150-1,153 per tonne. \nDown the curve, November-December-January (NDJ) 2027 offers were heard at €1,160 per tonne, with bids mostly ranging €1,150-1,153 per tonne. \nPrices for FOB sunflower oil (SFO) across six EU ports saw only marginal changes along the curve on Friday, with market activity remaining very limited for nearby periods. \nMarket rumours circulated about possible trades for the October–November–December (OND) period at $1,405 per tonne, although these were not confirmed by the time of publishing. \nFor the July-August-September (JAS) period, offers were reported at $1,510-1,515 per tonne, with bids at $1,490 per tonne. \nAs for the OND window, offers were heard at $1,410 per tonne, with buy-side interest reported at $1,390-1,400 per tonne. \nOn a CIF Mersin basis, the sunflower oil market remained completely quiet, with no indications heard from either buyers or sellers.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2641070551","isCrawlerRequest":true}